Discussions among the group One person talks about things

Dollar circulation mechanism and pricing system

亏损一人扛

(1) Dollar circulation mechanism Let’s start with the circulation mechanism of the global US dollar. Specifically, if the US dollar maintains its status as the global central currency, then other countries will inevitably need to hoard US dollars. Regardless of the need to maintain economic and financial security, or from the perspective of economic development, many countries are likely to have trade surpluses or current account surpluses with the United States in the end. Conversely, if other

Financial History: Nukes in Economic Warfare—Financial Sanctions

亏损一人扛

In September 2014, the news of the U.S. financial sanctions against Russia was rampant. Earlier, the U.S. also imposed a huge fine of nearly 9 billion U.S. dollars on BNP Paribas, which violated U.S. sanctions, and suspended its U.S. dollar clearing business. In 2010, this was tantamount to directly cutting off a large military transaction between France and Russia, which aroused strong dissatisfaction from the Russian authorities. Putin even made a public speech reminding Russia that it is a nu

The origin of the development of the western financial system

亏损一人扛

When it comes to the origin of Western financial markets, bills of exchange cannot be avoided, because bills of exchange are not only the earliest among all financial instruments in terms of time, but also have great significance and affect the overall situation. Without bills of exchange, a long-distance trade system cannot be developed. Without long-distance trade, a global market cannot be formed. Without a large market, it is impossible to evolve a very detailed social division of labor. If

The essence of controlling the trading mentality lies in these three points

亏损一人扛

Trading, the game of money. The "other world" war between people. In addition to the contest of wisdom and skills, the fight is calm and calm, and the competition is calm and calm. In this war of beating numbers, a calm and tenacious mentality will allow you to better coordinate the overall situation. In the transaction, there are no more than three situations: profit, loss, and position. We often say that the mentality is out of balance, where is the imbalance? Why is it out of balance? In fact

Double-edged sword - negative interest rate policy

亏损一人扛

Since the European Central Bank implemented negative interest rates, and the Bank of Japan has followed suit to ensure that it does not fall behind, we often hear news about negative interest rates. So what exactly are negative interest rates? For example, if you borrow money from a person, the end result is that he pays you back the interest. We wonder how such a thing is possible, unless the person is out of his mind. But the actual situation is that in the world we live in, there is such a s

Seven Pillow Books

亏损一人扛

This time, I would like to recommend a few very hard-core books suitable for general traders or novice traders. These books have not been recommended countless times in the market, such as "Smart Investor" or "Memoirs of a Stock Operator" " and so on, but books that can really help everyone in trading. Book 1: "Intermarket Trading Strategies" The author of this book is called John Murphy. Is it very familiar? That's right, he is the author of "Technical Analysis of Futures Market" that chart tra

my trading history

亏损一人扛

The rise and fall of the price forms a trend, the inertia of the trend drives the price to rise and fall, and the rise and fall of the price changes the trend-the trend is such a reincarnation. Slowly establish your own trading rules from the graphics. In fact, the hardest part of the real offer is the self-control of human nature and emotions. Discipline and mind control come first and foremost. However, there is a premise that you must have a complete and market-tested trading system, otherwis

The safe-haven properties of the yen

亏损一人扛

When many people talk about the yen, they think of a safe haven. It is true that the Japanese Yen has a safe-haven constitution, but let’s first understand the concept of safe-haven assets correctly. 1. Re-understanding "risk avoidance" Traditionally, the more recognized "safe haven assets" in the market include gold, Japanese yen and Swiss franc. The concept of "safe haven assets" is proposed because some assets will perform more eye-catching when the market experiences extreme fluctuations, s

The truth behind US data and the stock market

亏损一人扛

In the Fed's interest rate decision, if there is a revision or deletion of the forward guidance, generally speaking, it will stimulate the market's change in the Fed's interest rate hike expectations, whether it is to delay or advance the rate hike. After that, the market will focus on the US data, hoping to obtain signs of accelerated recovery of the US economy from the data, so as to judge the Fed's next move. We can often hear or see that after the release of important economic data in the U

Bond Markets and Shadow Money

亏损一人扛

Whenever the Fed raises/cuts interest rates, news is flying all over the market, which affects this market and that market. Why does the Fed's rate hike/cut rate have such a big impact on the financial market? What is its cause? Today we will focus on how these markets interact. In the financial market, each market is like a gear, which meshes with each other. Where the hell is this drive wheel? This needs to be clarified. Therefore, if we carefully analyze the turmoil in the entire market cause

How big is the impact of the dollar? Take you deep into the past and present of the global foreign exchange market (4)

亏损一人扛

>> Hidden debt risks in the foreign exchange market First of all, how big is the transaction scale of the foreign exchange market? By the end of 2019, the balance of the three core instruments of foreign exchange swaps, forwards and currency basis spreads in the foreign exchange market reached 86 trillion U.S. dollars, and U.S. dollar transactions accounted for 90% of it. Foreign exchange swaps, foreign exchange forwards, and currency basis swaps are all derivatives, but they are different from

How big is the impact of the dollar? Take you deep into the past and present of the global foreign exchange market (3)

亏损一人扛

>> The law of "universal gravitation" in the foreign exchange market---CIP What are CIPs? In fact, it is the law of one price of financial assets. This law was first proposed by Friedman in the 1950s. How to understand? If you sell a hamburger for one dollar in the United States, you should sell it for 6 yuan in China, because the ratio of the dollar to the renminbi is 6.8. In fact, the final price of any same commodity in any country should be the same if there is no loss. One dollar in China i

Chaos in the Middle East--Into Iran

亏损一人扛

The Iranian issue cannot be viewed in isolation, but should be discussed together with neighboring countries. The Middle East is too complicated. Ethnicity, religion, transportation, geopolitics, oil resources, etc., affect the whole body. Let’s start with the “Shiite Crescent Half Arc”, also known as the “Shiite Crescent Belt” in academia, which was proposed by the King of Jordan when he was interviewed by an American reporter in 2004. Lebanon-Syria-Iraq-Iran, the connection of several countrie

Understanding U.S. Debt (1)

亏损一人扛

This is a dry but useful article. If you can calm down and read it, you will have a clear understanding of the debt situation of the United States. Over the past decade, U.S. government debt has grown faster than at any time since the end of World War II and outpaced economic growth during that period. At the end of 2019, the size of the US debt reached the highest level since the war. At the end of 2019, the debt held by the public was $16.8 trillion, equivalent to 79% of US GDP, which is much

Anglo-American Settlement Currency Competition (3): Bretton Woods Agreement

亏损一人扛

In the past, it was mentioned that the United States and the United Kingdom are competing for the global settlement currency. There are two people mentioned in it, White and Keynes. Let me tell you a little bit about White. During World War II, he proposed that all Allied soldiers receiving aid from the United States must use U.S. dollars. Moreover, when the United States liberated these countries occupied by the Nazis in Germany, White pushed dollars into the country's market every time it libe

How big is the impact of the dollar? Take you deep into the past and present of the global foreign exchange market (2)

亏损一人扛

>> Major players in the foreign exchange market After a brief understanding of the trading tools, who are the main players in this market? The figure below shows the statistics of the BIS Bank for International Settlements in 2019. Red represents forex traders or market makers. Mainly some big international banks. Accounted for 38% of the transaction volume. Yellow represents some other financial institutions, most of which are small and medium-sized banks or hedge funds, as well as non-bank and

The Anglo-American Settlement Currency Competition (2): Anglo-American Competition for the Position of the Global Settlement Currency Leader

亏损一人扛

When the United Kingdom and the United States were vying for the position of the global settlement currency leader, the first internationalization of the US dollar suffered a disastrous defeat, and the United Kingdom once again regained its strength by relying on the trade barriers established by the Imperial Preference System. But with the outbreak of World War II, Britain once again fell into a bug crisis. How did the United States gradually dismember Britain? How did Churchill and Roosevelt w

The details, logic and operation behind the Fed's interest rate hike

亏损一人扛

When many people talk about the Fed raising interest rates, they are not very clear about the concept in their minds. We often imagine it is very simple. An interest rate increase means that the central bank issues a notice, and then the interest rates of all banks increase the next day. Is it that simple? Obviously not. 1. The logic behind the Fed’s interest rate hike What exactly is the interest rate adjusted by the Fed's interest rate hike? It adjusts the overnight lending rate between banks,

Understanding U.S. Debt (2)

亏损一人扛

I'm sorry everyone waited for a month to update the next article, because it took a long time to check the data and modify the details of the article. Again: this is a boring but hugely useful article. If you can calm down and read it, you will have a clear understanding of the debt situation of the United States. Then understand the U.S. debt (1), so I don’t make too many descriptions, and go directly to the topic. (7) Other measurement methods of US debt Several measures of federal debt other

How big is the impact of the dollar? Take you deep into the past and present of the global foreign exchange market (1)

亏损一人扛

Abstract: The full text is 20,000 words and is divided into four parts, so the reference materials are put first. It takes a certain amount of time to read, it is recommended to bookmark first! The professional vocabulary in the text is accompanied by examples, and there is no reading barrier as a whole. Starting from foreign exchange tools, you must think about it when reading, otherwise it will affect the subsequent reading. References: Asian Development Bank Reports/Documents: COVID-19 Expose