How to judge the beginning and end of trend trading? Can you introduce the system?

tianji road
The so-called trend trading is what we usually call following the trend. So what does it mean to follow the trend? Going with the trend means that when the market trend is upward, then go long along the trend line; if the trend is downward, open short along the trend line; if it is a box arrangement, then sell high and buy low . Then, in order to follow the trend, there must be a trend first. What is a trend? The Dow Theory, the patriarch of technical analysis, defines it as follows: Under normal circumstances, the market does not go straight in any direction. The characteristic of the market movement is twists and turns. Its trajectory is like a series of successive, ups and downs, with obvious peaks and troughs. The trend is exactly the direction in which these peaks and troughs rise or fall in sequence. As these peaks and troughs increase or decrease sequentially, or extend horizontally, the evolution of their direction constitutes the trend of the market. Any trend will not appear out of thin air, it has a starting point and an end point. This area connecting the end of the old trend and the beginning of the new trend is what we usually call an inflection point! In this way, returning to the main question, the answer comes, how to judge the beginning and end of trend trading? In fact, how to grasp this inflection point is as simple as that! If you catch the first inflection point, that is the beginning of the trend; then you catch the second inflection point, that is the end of this round of trend and the beginning of a new round of trend. In a word, the trend continues before the inflection point (old trend), and the trend reverses after the inflection point (new trend comes). Refer to the figure. ​ However, predicting the inflection point is often easier said than done, and it is very clear after the fact, and there are various entanglements in the matter. The most classic case is that a generation of master Benjamin Graham misjudged the beginning of the Dow’s upward trend in 1929. And the fact that it almost broke the warehouse. So, how can we grasp this inflection point well, or grasp the beginning and end of the trend? Personally, I think that the sharp tool for judging the inflection point lies in the technical form + wave theory. We know that there are two main classifications of technical patterns-reversal patterns and continuation patterns. Reversal patterns are true to their name, meaning that a major trend reversal is taking place, which is often the area where the turning point is located. The wave theory can divide the trend of the market by counting waves, and the junction of the impulsive wave and the adjustment wave is often the area where the inflection point is located. If the reversal signal in the technical form and the wave type boundary in the wave theory are combined, and where they overlap, then the probability of the inflection point is often close to ten. Combined with the direction of the wave type, then the beginning of a trend and The end is on paper.
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Is trend following a false proposition?

tianji road
Topic, whether trend following is a false proposition, I don’t want to talk about this first. What I want to point out is that your question is actually a false proposition at all! Why do you say this way? There are two reasons: 1. What happened to Stanley Crowe? Stanley Crowe is a well-known "long-term trading master" and "trend trading master" in the Wall Street futures industry. He has published six futures monographs, and probably three of them are the most widely circulated in China. Futures Speculators", "Crow Talks about Futures Trading Strategies" in 1987, and "Crow Talks about Investment Strategies--The Magical Murphy's Law" around 1994. Not only has he made great achievements in the field of writing, but he is also famous in investment transactions. Relying on the principle of trend trading, Stanley Crowe created a miracle of making a profit of 1 million US dollars with 18,000 US dollars in the rising commodity futures market in the early 1970s! After becoming famous and successful, Stanley Crowe took the huge wealth he gained on Wall Street, away from this competitive market, roaming the world, enjoying his own life; finally he died of myocardial infarction in 1999 due to obesity. Stanley Crowe's unrestrained attitude of "flicking his clothes away, hiding his body and fame" is consistent with Fan Li's state of boating on the West Lake after he retired from his career, and has always been admired by people; but here you use "Stan Leigh Crowe has disappeared" to comment, I don't know what it means. 2. Did Richard Dennis fail? Richard Dennis is a master of trend trading, and thus created the turtle trading rules. Such a powerful speculator is said to have suffered heavy losses in the 1987 stock market crash. At that time, his main position was in bonds. After the stock market crash, interest rates were lowered, and the trend of bonds skyrocketed. Although Richard Dennis had risk control, it would be difficult to stop for a while, so he suffered heavy losses. Then, in 1988, Richard Dennis announced that he would quit the speculative world and concentrate on politics. The above paragraph is the story of Richard Dennis circulated on the Internet, and it should also be the source of the title "Richard Dennis went into politics after a huge loss", right? This story is indeed close to ten, but where does the term "failure at a huge loss" come from? Did he fail? I didn't see it anyway. First of all, we need to know, which year did the turtle experiment start? 1983. Historical data shows that in the following 4 years, the sea turtle trainees generally achieved an average annual compound interest rate of 80%. That said, in 1987, the Turtles were still making deals for Richard. For this reason, I specially read "Turtle Trading Rules", which clearly stated as follows: October 19, 1987, the legendary "Black Monday". Curtis (Richard's best Turtle member and the author of the book) was running a $20 million account for Richard to trade. On the same day, he held short orders in euros and US dollars. At the same time, he held a large number of long orders in gold and silver, as well as several other foreign exchange varieties. You must know that the trading method of the Turtles is always to follow the trend. Moreover, the turtle trading rules have the logic of increasing positions, and orders are placed according to the proportion of funds. The biggest risk of the turtle trading rules, as I once said, is that when most of the underlying products they trade show signals at the same time, and just fill up their positions, and then a sharp reverse movement occurs, their retracement will Very big. At this time, in fact, the first half of this incident happened. Curtis described in the article that he held a lot of orders in heavy positions. And the next morning, when the market opened, the euros and dollars he was short jumped and opened sharply. And his bulls all opened sharply lower. The chart below shows the trend of the euro and dollar at that time: There is no doubt that he must stop the loss, but because the gap is too large, all his positions are basically equivalent to suffering the maximum blow. On this day, his $20 million account became $11 million. He said in the article: "It was XXX who raised interest rates overnight without warning, and it hurt me badly." Curtis has gone through this process, and it is estimated that Richard is also in the same situation. Therefore, as mentioned above, nearly half of the funds under its management have lost nearly half of the losses, which is just this wave of market prices. In the book, Curtis showed their capital curve after this market wave, as shown in the figure below: What's wrong with this funding curve? I don't think so. This is a normal small callback in the middle of the general trend going northeast! Those who said he failed, including the subject, how many of you can draw a 4-year fund curve with a better result than it? This curve cannot explain his failure at all. Since then, Richard Dennis has gone into politics. This can only show that Richard Dennis started his new career after experiencing a small stop loss in his life; does this have anything to do with the failure of the trend trading method? Who stipulates that the trend can only go in one direction to the end, and cannot be carried out in a way of big rise and small return? Questioner, your question "Is trend tracking a false proposition?" The two examples listed in this question are not valid, so your question is also a false question, so it is not worth answering.
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How do beginners learn foreign exchange trading? What are your suggestions?

connotation jokes tv
Thanks to the black little party for the invitation. For newcomers, especially when the subject describes himself as a college student, he is basically a novice. Many people want to "dissuade" directly when they see it, but I never persuade beginners like this. Not long after I came into contact with trading, I was known by a relative of mine. He has been a stockholder for more than 20 years. In general, it is possible to break even. He advised me not to engage in trading. From his firm tone, I felt as if I was committing a crime if I continued to trade. He told me a lot, and the past time is too long. I roughly concluded that the reason why I can’t trade is because it is too difficult, and if you are not a professional, there is almost no possibility of success. If you get jealous, you may go bankrupt and never turn over for the rest of your life. From the current point of view, what he said is right, but not entirely right. At that time, I did not listen to his advice to continue trading, and I suffered a lot later, which really had a great impact on my life, but this is actually the price on the road to success. If you want to get into a good school, you need a cold window More than ten years, not to mention such a difficult trading field. But I don't discourage newcomers. Why? Just imagine if everyone in all fields is persuading newcomers to retreat, then where is the progress of mankind? Isn't it because there are so many people of all kinds who are tirelessly fighting for it that we can achieve a highly developed state today? So I even said that I encourage everyone to try it, but there are prerequisites. The first premise, control. Everything you do must be controlled. When what you do is out of control and completely out of control, disaster may not be far away. This is especially true for trading, because newcomers, as the subject said, do not understand anything, so even if they are exposed to trading at this time, they must control themselves, from which aspect? First of all, it is easy to not make a firm offer. I have met many people. In addition to knowing how to buy and sell, how to set a stop loss, how to operate a pending order, where are the trading software indicators, and how to set parameters, they dare to make a firm offer. The market is not an ATM. , You are eager to enter the market not to make money, but most likely to send money. The second is that even if you are on a firm offer, your funds must be controlled. Only use 20% to 30% of your active funds, and never exceed 50%, because once this value is exceeded, your financial status will be in danger. It may get out of control. If you lose money, you will stud all your funds. If you lose again, you will even borrow and trade, and you may really fall into the abyss of eternal doom. It can be said that controlling funds is the most important thing for novices, because as a novice, it is almost certain that you will start to lose money, and controlling this part of "tuition fees" a little less will leave you with opportunities in the future and give you more opportunities. Leaving room for one's own growth is the most correct thing for novices to do. The second premise is professionalism. The major mentioned here does not mean that you must study related financial majors or engage in related jobs. It's about attitude, you have to be professional. Anyone who can achieve great things must have a professional attitude towards his related fields. I have met many people who have been trading for several years, ten years or even decades. The long-term trading time has not brought them much change. I am watching the market, but this is completely unqualified, not to mention professional, many people have been lingering outside the door for more than ten years and have not been able to get started. So what does it mean to be professional? The subject's description in the title can be regarded as the beginning of a professional attitude. First of all, we must figure out what foreign exchange trading is, and read some related books, such as Murphy's big blueprint, futures market analysis techniques. Then read technology-related books, such as candlestick theory, wave theory, Dow theory and so on. In fact, you may not use this kind of book in the future, but you should also read it. This knowledge is the basis for building a trading building, just like we need to learn mathematics and English well from the very beginning when we finally engage in computer technology. After reading these books, start to digest, and then verify by yourself whether the facts brought in the book are correct, such as the feasibility of candle chart patterns, the feasibility of wave theory counting waves, and the feasibility of Dow Theory's explanation of trends. When these basic skills are completed, the next step is to start reading some books on the systematic construction of trading, such as the turtle trading rules, trading for a living, the gift of the ghost, the road to wealth and freedom, and so on. This kind of book combines all the things in the transaction into a complete trading system. From it, you can see what the profitable and verified trading systems look like, and then start thinking about how to build your own. trading principles. This period of time is likely to be a qualitative leap for a trader, a key link to break through the door of trading, and a node for a trader to stand out and leave others behind. After mastering all these, you can read some trading biography books, such as the memoirs of a stock operator, Qing Ze's Dream in Ten Years and The Realm of Clearness, etc. This kind of book is the condensed life of an excellent trader. It can be said that people with different cognitive levels have different feelings when reading this kind of book. And people with top-level trading knowledge will realize their own trading philosophy in such books, which will almost complete their own trading building. If you want to be professional, you must keep learning. Continuous learning is an eternal topic in every field. The same is true for me, what should I do when I want to verify my trading system, but I don't understand computer programming at all? I had no choice but to study. I just learned computer programming in three months. I didn’t watch TV or swiped my phone every day and kept learning programming for at least three hours at night. Now there is no problem with simple trading system programming, and I also back-tested the data of the systems I built one by one, found out the shortcomings, and slowly tried to improve them. The subject of the topic is still a student, with great energy and strong learning ability. It is even more important to maintain this motivation to learn and improve yourself. In addition, I would like to give another suggestion to the subject. The subject said that he is still a student. You can trade, and you can also focus on trading, because it is a happy thing to devote energy to something you like. But you must also ensure your studies, at least let your grades pass the test, and don’t affect your graduation. This is how you do things. A side job can replace your main job, but your main job is still to learn your own major. Before it is replaced, you still have to do it well. Yes, not to mention that you are young and energetic, there is no problem with this. Are you satisfied with this answer?
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Are you happy doing business?

外汇戏哥
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Why is it so hard for an analyst to be the best trader?

indulge
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Why do many people in trading study Taoist or Buddhist theories?

one sword and a lifetime of hatred
Master, do you know what was the first thing I thought of when I saw your title? Did you think of why many great scientists in history ended up studying theology? Give me an example, Newton, you know? Known as the "father of modern physics", he is an encyclopedia-style "all-rounder": in mechanics, Newton clarified the principle of conservation of momentum and angular momentum, and proposed Newton's law of motion; in optics, he invented the reflecting telescope, And developed the color theory; in mathematics, Newton shared the honor of developing calculus with Gottfried William Leibniz; in economics, Newton proposed the gold standard system. It is such a great man of science who is so awesome that he lived to be 80 years old. He studied science for the first 40 years, but was obsessed with theology for the next 40 years. Why do you say? Give another example, Einstein, you know? He proposed the light quantum hypothesis, which solved the problem of the photoelectric effect; the special theory of relativity and the general theory of relativity he founded had an epoch-making effect on our human science and technology civilization society, and was selected as the "Great Man of the Century" by the American "Time Magazine"! It is the greatest scientist so far who believes in God and studies theology in his later years. What is the reason for this? Although the two scientific gods, Newton and Einstein, are far apart in age, they are surprisingly similar: they both made indelible contributions to the development of global science, and why did they both abandon theory and turn to theology in the end? . Is it the end of their talents in their later years, or the end of science is theology? neither! A large amount of statistical data shows that these scientists who turned to theology in their later years studied very profound issues in their previous lives, and when this research reached a certain stage, this ceiling could not be broken, so they pinned their thoughts on theology. Theology, or religion, is essentially a discipline of mind training, and both Christianity and Buddhism have methods leading to this path. It is helpful to look through books on this subject. For example, Christ is realized through forgiveness and repentance; Buddhism is realized through practice, and Buddhism is more in line with the mentality of the Eastern people. In fact, whether it is from Einstein's theory of relativity or the quantum entanglement theory that is still debated until now, we can find that some of them have a certain connection with the current Taoist metaphysics and Buddhism. Everything in the universe is attributed to This kind of connection, that is to say, this kind of core thing determines the truth of the universe, especially the Buddhist theory, which is simply the ultimate science. Zong, life itself is a small universe! Having said that, I believe the subject owner should have gained something! When science can’t be explained, scientists use theology to understand it; in the same way, everyone actually wants to find the holy grail of profit in trading, but unfortunately this is impossible to find (investment is probability, there is no 100 % accuracy rate); in this way, over time, many people who do business will end up studying theology, but the West focuses on God, while we in the East study Taoist or Buddhist theories. Finally, think about it, great scientists still study theology in the end, so what is so strange about doing business and studying Taoist or Buddhist theories in the end?
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Why does non-farm payrolls have a greater impact on gold than other commodities?

the faith that i hold on to in my dreams
The U.S. non-agricultural data we usually refer to actually refers to the heavyweight economic indicator "employment situation". Market Sensitivity: Very High. What it means: The most eagerly awaited economic information. Release time: 8:30 a.m. ET; generally released on the first Friday of each month, with data covering the month that just ended. Frequency: Once a month. Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Correction: Modifications can be very large. Each published data revision is usually looked back two months. The government benchmarks the business (or payroll) survey every June. The base of the household survey changes little, and is adjusted every ten years or so. No economic indicator roils the stock and bond markets quite like the jobs report. First, the employment situation report is very timely, coming out just a week after the month under review. Second, the report is rich and specific in terms of the job market and household income, information that is useful for forecasting the economy. And three, let's face it -- we're talking about the welfare of American workers. Wages and salaries derived from employment constitute the main source of household income. The more workers earn, the more they buy and the more they move the economy forward. If fewer people are working, spending falls and businesses suffer. Since household spending accounts for 2/3 of the economy, you can see why the investment community is watching the jobs report so closely. There's another reason the jobs report can dominate financial markets so much: The jobs numbers often surprise people. If there is little other information for the month, it will make it difficult for experts to forecast unemployment. The highlight of the employment situation report is of course the unemployment rate, the percentage of the workforce that is not employed. What do we mean by social labor force? It is defined as all employed and unemployed persons over the age of 16 (except those in the military, prisons, mental institutions, and nursing homes). Economists measure monthly changes in the job market from two different sources. One is based on the household survey (household survey), which is conducted by the government to conduct telephone and letter interviews with households. The other is the establishment (payroll) survey, which asks companies directly about recent staff changes. Putting these two together paints a broad picture of the labor market and, more broadly, the state of the economy. 1. The impact of US non-agricultural data on gold trading: The non-agricultural data of the United States has a great impact on the foreign exchange market, the metal market, etc. From the previous data, the large fluctuations in the market on the night when the non-agricultural data is released occupy the main trading day. , and even full of operations that lure more and less space. So be extremely careful. Since non-agricultural data may change the market trend and direction after the release, this makes it impossible for any investor to avoid it. Therefore, it is recommended that investors analyze the impact of real data by comparing the expected value announced by the market with the previous value. This is the only way to grasp the target. The trend of gold is closely related to the data reflecting the trend of the US dollar, and there are several non-agricultural changes in the US that change the trend of gold. 2. Grasp the impact of non-agricultural data on gold First of all, non-agricultural data is very important. Judging from previous trends, it will cause large fluctuations and shocks in the market. In many cases, the market fluctuates violently. The fluctuation of gold on some non-agricultural days has reached about 50 US dollars. Therefore, we must pay attention to the impact of non-farm on the market. Secondly, before the release of non-agricultural data, you should pay attention to the changes in market trends. No matter what variety (foreign exchange market, precious metals market, commodity market, stock market, etc.) is facing the test of non-agricultural data for the continuation of the trend, so the trend of the varieties you make To what extent has it developed? For the judgment of the trend development process, how long can it be concluded? Non-farm payrolls are likely to change this trend. Third, after the release of the non-agricultural data, we must stick to one direction and do a good job of stopping losses. Appropriate enlarged stop loss is necessary. At the same time, the non-agricultural market will form false breakthroughs near key supports and resistances, which should be avoided. Since the non-agricultural data is released at the beginning of the month, it is generally used as the keynote of the economic indicators of the current month. Among them, the non-agricultural employment population is an important data to estimate industrial production and personal income. A decrease in the unemployment rate or an increase in non-agricultural employment means that the economy is improving and interest rates may be raised, which is good for the dollar and bearish for gold; otherwise, it is bad for the dollar and bullish for gold.
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Everyone talks about whether the news is bullish or bearish. Why does the market still go in the opposite direction?

wood fire bright lsw
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How do you break through the bottleneck when doing transactions?

jock
What are you talking about when you talk about bottlenecks? I think the bottleneck is not that you are stuck in one place and cannot get out, or stop at a certain stage and no longer rise, that is called a dilemma or stagnation. Think about the shape of a bottle and its neck, it's not sealed, it's just a narrowed passageway to continue upward. This means that you have to change the way and mentality of rough progress, and start targeted improvement and intensive cultivation. After distinguishing the above two concepts, let's discuss your current situation. If you say your situation is stuck or stagnant, then in my opinion, it can mean two things: 1. You are satisfied with the status quo or think you are perfect. 2. You can't find any problems or shortcomings that limit your development. If it is 1, then congratulations, you are happy and content, you don’t need to ask anything, just keep your state and mentality. If it's 2, then go find it. If you have found the problem and the reason that restricts your development, then congratulations, you have found the narrow upward channel, our last concept - the bottleneck. You know what is limiting your development, your bottleneck, and just fix it, or re-ask the more specific questions you found. Having a bottleneck is a good thing in my opinion, which at least shows: 1. You already have a certain level and height. 2 You at least have a clear direction in which you can improve. If you can easily find a dozen or twenty problems that limit your own development, it can only be said that we are still far from the bottleneck, and we have just started or even not yet started. Just like the example of typing speed mentioned earlier, our typing speed has not improved for several years, and it is not because of a bottleneck at all. Because we are simply satisfied with our typing speed. If you think about it casually, you can come up with ways to improve your speed in more than n minutes, such as changing double spells, practicing combinations, watching first spells, memorizing sorting, etc. What is this bottleneck? We are simply very amateur laymen. No progress for a long time does not mean that you have reached a bottleneck. We have tons of things to do to make us professional. Looking at the question, the subject should know that he has a problem, and probably know what the problem is, so you understand what my suggestion is. Say more: It seems that we are naturally attracted by such words as breakthrough, outbreak, bottleneck, replacement, and invention. We are insensitive, or lethargic, to things that are slow, repetitive, and still. Our favorite things to move. The faster and more violent the movement, the easier it is to attract our attention. In this respect, we are not much different from frogs. This trait means a lot to us in avoiding danger and catching prey—survival—but this way of thinking seems to be an obstacle to excellence, top notch. This way of thinking is more suitable for watching novels and movies. Because in order to cater to you, the author selects the exciting parts and skips the boring parts. Of course, there is really nothing to write. Think about the story of Goujian, the king of Yue, who tried his best to endure hardships. How wonderful is this short one. We can see stories that way, but we can't see real life that way. It took 21 years for the Yue Kingdom to go from being destroyed to Goujian's success in revenge. More than seven thousand days. You can write 30,000 to 40,000 words just by writing 4 words about eating and sleeping every day. Can you imagine how boring it is to watch a story like this? But when we really experience it, every day is basically repetitive and unremarkable. Not so many breakouts, bursts, and bottlenecks. You said Goujian's 21 years, when is the bottleneck, where is the breakthrough? Maybe not, just a lot of repetition, constantly tinkering according to the goal, and solving the problems encountered. After accumulating for a long enough time, looking back, telling a story is already such a magnificent career. Peasant uprisings never erupted suddenly: so many people and peasants in such a wide area risked their lives to overthrow the imperial court, which was completely disproportionate in strength, how could it "suddenly" and "explode"? The electric light was never invented suddenly, it was just one of many experiments. Tencent has never taken off suddenly. It is an iteration of countless versions of products that are tinkered with customer needs. Sudden, explosive, and breakthrough are only words used from an outsider's perspective, or when telling a story in retrospect. If you are in it and participate in every process, these so-called breakthroughs are actually a long process, even a bit boring. You can go a thousand miles without accumulating steps. It’s not just telling us not to take small things seriously. The point is that you have to keep accumulating and solving small problems, and move forward with corrections. After a long time, when you look back, you are in the eyes of others. It has exploded thousands of miles away. If you can still find short boards and shortcomings, you don’t have to rush to think about bottlenecks, breakthroughs, and prosperity, just practice, correct, and strengthen them. In Chinese culture, flowers, birds, fish, insects, tigers, leopards, and wolves can all be cultivated to become immortals, let alone you, a smart living person? What is cultivation? Cultivation refers to the correction and fine-tuning of directions and mistakes, and it is tinkering. Practice is repetition and mastery. Look, there is nothing earth-shattering and explosive.
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(RCEP) Globalization has changed in a century: the era of separatist rule is coming

起止点
When the system formed after the end of World War II is less than a century old, the "post-war order" established by it is now facing major challenges.At this stage, global trade has become more and more regionalized. So far, multilateral trade agreements such as TPP, CPTPP, NAFTA, TTIP, and WTO have emerged one after another. The establishment of RCEP this time just shows that the previous WTO system has become unsustainable, or at least has encountered a considerable bottleneck period. Otherwise, many Asian countries have no need to start all over again this time. Therefore, my judgment is that the establishment of the RCEP will not promote the existing globalization system, but will also aggravate the collapse and disintegration of the existing WTO. It is very likely that after the WTO is gradually emptied, it will instead absorb more members and gradually replace the original system. First of all, the reason for the collapse of the old globalization system represented by the WTO is the popularity of neoliberalism at the end of the last century, which caused European and American companies, especially American companies, to move a large amount of manufacturing out of their homeland simply to track profits. Coupled with the fact that the beneficiaries of globalization are concentrated in multinational corporations that pursue neoliberalism, while creating a large number of rust belts in the central United States, it is also accompanied by the intensification of social contradictions brought about by the huge wealth and income inequality. I remember when I was watching the video of Trump and Biden’s presidential election debate this year, Trump said a very impressive sentence, to the effect that “If you (Biden) and Obama govern the country well, neither will I. would have been president four years ago." Although this sentence sounds like a bit of comedy, the details are a reflection of the previous policies, especially the contradictions accumulated by the United States for a long time. Secondly, when the old system collapses, it is inevitable to enter a situation of "rituals collapse and happiness decays". In the same logic as the Jiantu Huimeng, Zhaoling Huimeng, Huangchi Huimeng, and Xuzhou Huimeng in the Spring and Autumn Period, if Zhou Tianzi's control was strong, how could the Spring and Autumn Five Hegemons emerge? It was the long-standing social conflicts that had accumulated after the war that enabled the anti-establishment and anti-globalization president represented by Trump to come to power. ​​​​ The establishment of RCEP is fundamentally not to maintain the existing etiquette system that maintains the authority of "Zhou Tianzi", but to break through the old etiquette system and establish a new trading system. Therefore, RCEP is actually more about dredging the existing system than adding bricks and mortar. Furthermore, the member states of RCEP are the high-end manufacturing industry represented by Japan and South Korea, the world's most powerful middleware production represented by China and the country with the most complete industrial categories in the whole system, and the China represented by the ten ASEAN countries. Countries producing low-end, cheap, mid-end and low-end final parts, and important industrial raw material suppliers represented by Australia and New Zealand are a free trade alliance. It is no exaggeration to say that if RCEP member countries do not consider the factor of oil supply, A closed inner loop can be formed completely. ​​​​ Therefore, once such an alliance is established, it will inevitably pose a very big challenge to the WTO. Unlike other existing trade alliances in Europe and the United States, RCEP is like the Qin State back then. It is Qin's strong production capacity and continuous strong comprehensive national strength of logistics that are beyond the reach of the six countries that enable Qin to fight against Zhao in the Battle of Changping, forcing Zhao to have to fight against Qin's main force. Fight to the death as soon as possible, so as to avoid the situation of being starved to death by the whole army. It is also relying on the developed agricultural irrigation systems in Bashu and Guanzhong that enabled Qin to steadily fight a steadily advancing war of annihilation with Chu. ​​​​
starting point
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How to build a trading system that suits you?

山城老刁民
From the current trading system popular among institutional investors, there are mainly two modes: The first type is the fund management and position control mode (indicator trading system) based on the traditional technical analysis method. This method mainly guides traders to make timely position adjustments through changes in different technical indicators, but the disadvantage is that technical indicators often contradict each other, which affects traders to make the right choice. The second type of trading system is based on the modern financial risk analysis theory, using a fully quantitative and programmed position control system (intelligent trading system). Since personal emotional interference is completely eliminated, this trading system can avoid risks well. But also because of this, this completely mechanized trading model lacks sufficient trading flexibility, and it is easy to cause large losses when extreme situations occur in the market. The author mainly talks about the related issues of the trading system from the perspective of small and medium-sized investors. Why build your own trading system These phenomena often appear in the market: Many traders dare not enter the market when a wave of market comes, and chase after the market is about to end, and refuse to leave the market after the market is over, resulting in being trapped; Misleading effects often lead to mistakes; there are many masters of technical analysis who can often predict the high and low points of price fluctuations, and thus make profits, but the overall trading results are not very satisfactory. In fact, these investors have some commonality in investment, that is, the investor does not know how to deal with when his prediction is wrong? How much money should I use when I get a buy signal? When should I add to my position or when should I take a profit? Also, is the trading method he uses suitable for him? Does he have the ability to master his own trading methods? etc. These problems can be solved with an objective and complete trading system. Why build your own trading system? There are two main reasons: 1. Self-control. There are two aspects of self-control: one is the control of human nature. When you make a profit of 20% in one transaction, do you expect more room for profit; when you are long and the market is bearish, will it affect your later transactions? The second is risk control. Losses may occur in any transaction, so you cannot bear too much loss in any one transaction. In fact, most traders who lose money are just the opposite, or do not pay enough attention to risk control. 2. The characteristics of the market. The unpredictability of the market determines that no one can accurately judge every market fluctuation in a relatively long period of time. A real data is: the top traders on Wall Street in the United States have an average transaction success rate of about 35% in ten years. Therefore, for most investors, don't expect how high your profit rate can be, and don't expect to use one indicator, one pattern, or a mechanical trading system to achieve great success. The author once saw a formula with a price of 240,000 yuan, which is said to be able to win every battle and make a profit. But is it possible? Problems to be solved by the trading system 1. How to deal with misjudgment? After a misjudgment, the position should be mercilessly cleared, because traders can easily make a second wrong decision under the influence of the first mistake. 2. How to set the stop loss price? Within what range is the maximum loss controlled? Before each transaction, traders should do this work well in advance, and set their own stop loss positions according to their own funds and psychological endurance. 3. When to add or reduce positions? When to take profits or continue to hold? To achieve this, the requirements for basic skills are relatively high. At the same time, traders should also compare their own personality and analysis ability, and explore the rules and make judgments after a long period of trading summary. 4. How to deal with uncertain factors in the market? The charm of the futures market lies in the uncertain factors, so traders must strictly implement the stop loss in the first time. 5. What is the expected profit target? Are you satisfied? the more you hope, the harder you fall. Therefore, we must actively think about price changes from the changes in trading volume, and we must break through our own psychological barriers for the support and pressure levels we see. Expected goals should not be set too high. 6. As the market price changes, how to revise your trading plan? Things are always developing. After the price changes, you should re-study your trading varieties, and then formulate a new trading plan. How to build your own trading system Many traders find it difficult to set up and use a trading system. In fact, building a trading system is both difficult and easy to say. The trading system of institutional investors needs hundreds of technical parameters to support, but there are also simple and effective trading systems suitable for small and medium investors in the market. For example, if the stock index (price) crosses the 20-day moving average to buy, and goes below the 20-day moving average to sell, an objective, simple and effective trading system is formed. This is just an example. Investors can establish a trading system suitable for themselves in actual combat, and resolutely implement the system's buying and selling signals, so as to give full play to its advantages and effects. The simplest trading system includes at least four parts: buying, selling, stop loss, and money management. Simply put, traders have to judge when to buy, how much to buy, what to do with the position if the market moves in the opposite direction, what to do if the market moves in the same direction, and so on. For buying, the following four principles can be set: 1. Judging by the trend, buy in a simple upward trend. 2. Judging by the moving average, for example, short-term trading buy when the 5-day moving average crosses the 10-day and 30-day moving average. 3. Judging by the support level, you can buy after stabilizing near the previous support level. 4. Judging by various technical indicators, taking the KDJ indicator as an example, when the K line breaks through the D line upwards, you can buy. These four principles are the basic principles of buying transactions. When one of the situations does not appear in the market, buying should not be considered at all. In addition, traders also need to establish a systematic selling principle. For stop loss, you should also have your own principles. In fact, it is quite effective to establish a reasonable stop loss principle, and the core of a prudent self-rescue strategy is to prevent losses from expanding. At any time, capital preservation is the first priority, and making money is the second, so stop loss is far more important than profit. From the perspective of actual combat experience, the 10% fixed stop loss method, trend stop loss method, moving average stop loss method, index stop loss method, etc. can all set the stop loss position more reasonably. Several methods are combined to comprehensively study and judge, so as to determine a more reasonable stop loss position. In addition, "everything is forewarned, nothing is foregone", all stop losses must be set before entering the market, and breaking the stop loss price is a sufficient condition for us to leave the market. "If you keep the green hills, you are not afraid of no firewood", "If you are not afraid of mistakes, you are afraid of procrastination", when the price really falls below the stop loss price, you should implement it according to the plan and leave the market unconditionally, and you should not take chances. Do a good job of the stop loss principle, even if the judgment is wrong, the loss caused is relatively small, but the result of not stopping the loss is often a deep lock-up, or even a huge loss. Finally, it's about money management. This is the most basic and important link in the trading system. The author believes that the real rule of investment income is that fund management affects attitude, attitude affects analysis, analysis affects decision-making, and decision-making affects income. Fund management will directly affect several important aspects of investors: 1. Affect investors' risk control ability. 2. Influence the mentality of investors. 3. Influence investors' attitude towards the market. Problems that should be paid attention to in the trading system 1. "Suitable" is the best. In practice, it is simply impossible to have a standardized trading system suitable for all traders. The process of establishing a trading system is like learning to swim. Some people are good at breaststroke and some are good at butterfly, but before they try it in the water, it is impossible to determine which swimming style is most suitable for them. Therefore, the establishment of the trading system must be gradually formed through a large number of trading practices under the joint action of the trader's personality, interest, market acumen, risk tolerance, comprehensive judgment and other factors. Therefore, after establishing your own trading system, you need to check whether the established trading method is suitable for you? Do you have the ability to master this trading method? Does the system match the speculative goals? Does the system match the personality? In actual operation, it is necessary to repeatedly check and repair to establish a trading system that suits you. 2. The "feeling" in trading. Some traders have rich trading experience, and often have some "feelings" about market changes, and these "feelings" should be based on your trading system. The author believes that trading depends more on feeling. 3. Learn to wait and take short positions. When the market develops according to the judgment of the trader, there is nothing to do but watch patiently. Therefore, it must be understood: the act of trading is only a momentary thing. There are more than 200 trading days in a year, and the actual trading may only take a few hours. The rest is a long and lonely wait. In the transaction, it is necessary to make preparations before entering the market, seize the opportunity, and try not to act in a hurry. If you make a major mistake in the transaction, don't panic. The best way is to clear all positions and wait. Remember, the market will never lack opportunities. 4. Be good at admitting mistakes. No matter what kind of trading system or trading principle, mistakes may occur. In addition, traders always hope that all their transactions are correct, and once they make mistakes, they will find various reasons to justify themselves. The experience of a successful trader is not whether mistakes occur, but how you look at them. Therefore, how to deal with mistakes is another important sign of a trader's maturity. To be able to make real long-term and stable profits in the market, the answer lies in yourself: one of the secrets of successful trading is to find a trading system that suits you. This trading system is non-mechanical and is suitable for one's own personality. It has perfect trading ideas, detailed market analysis and overall operation plan.
old troublemaker in mountain city
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How many people like Ma Baoguo are there in the trading circle?

江州司马
Well, friends I am Jia Dashi, the master of foreign exchange trading Hunyuan Just now a friend asked me: "Jia Dashi, what happened to your kidney?" I said what's going on? Send me some screenshots I saw, oh, Minamoto Raiji Sada There are two young men in their 30s with tongue-tied tongues. One has been in business for seven or eight years, and the other has been in business for five or six years. Tamun said, alas. . . One said that I was studying fundamentals every day, and the system was not perfect. Jia Dashi, can you teach me the Hunyuan Kungfu, alas, help me improve my trading system. I said yes. I said it's not good for you to study dead deals every day He is not convinced, alas. . I said kid, compare your two accounts with mine, he can’t compare He said it's useless for you, ah, tongue-tied I said I am useful, this is the energy, the traditional trading is about the energy, small and big, more than 200 British traders, don’t move my account, take a breath He said he would try it with me, and I said yes. well. . . When I said he slapped, he stood up. Soon! Then it comes up, a set of ultra-short-term, ah, whispering tongue, a set of mid-line orders, and an EA software. After going out, it is natural that the traditional transaction ends with the order. I placed an order with a full position and did not place it. I smiled and was ready to stop Because of this time, according to the point of traditional trading, he has already lost If this order is strong, it will dry up his account with one order. I put the mouse on the interface and did not place an order. He also admitted that I first thought of filling the warehouse. He didn’t know that I placed the mouse on the order button. He admitted that my trading ideas are stronger (smile) ah, I stopped placing orders when I stopped He suddenly patted me on the shoulder and talked to me (smiling) ah, I was careless, no flash Alas, his Zuo Quan gave me a rub on the arm and ordered an order, it’s okay Dan Taiye said, ah, he also said in the screenshot. After more than two minutes, he was in tears and covered his eyes I said Tingting, and then two minutes later, ah, more than two minutes later, hey, the position was liquidated I said boy, you don't talk about martial arts, you don't understand Jia Dashi, I'm sorry, I'm sorry, I don't know the rules, ah, I am, he said he was a gangster He is not a random man, buying, selling, placing orders, etc., well-trained Later he said that he had practiced skills for three or four years, ah, it seems that there is a bear These two young men don't talk about Wude, come, cheat, come and attack, my 69-year-old comrade, okay? this is not good I advise this young man to reflect on the rat tail juice Don't be so clever again in the future, little clever Well, peace is the most important thing in transactions, martial arts should be emphasized, and no fighting in the nest should be avoided, thank you friends! ============================ Pay tribute to Mr. Ma, with more than 200 likes, and then Duan Pine Cone Bouncing Five in a row.
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After five years of trading and losing everything, is there any hope of getting rich in the investment market?

heart road@life
I am also a professional day trader who has advanced all the way from Xiaobai, and most of my current source of income is from trading profits. From the beginning of contact in 2016 to the present, in the past 3 years, because it was not a full-time job, it was mainly a loss. By the end of 2019, I returned to my hometown to recuperate (the road to entrepreneurship was long and thorny) and began to devote myself to research and study. My personal feeling is that in the past 3 years or so, I followed the trend, went to a certain group of forums and platforms to find strategies for merchandising, and felt that I was awesome when I made a little profit, and I felt like I was nothing. In the low point, it was ridiculous to laugh and scold. During this period of time, the cumulative loss was nearly 2 million. In the end, the business in other places was sluggish, and my body suffered from diabetes. In addition, my wife returned home after she became pregnant. When I returned to my hometown, I bought an old remodeled house in a certain unit and failed to hand over the house, so I went to a nearby college to rent a house. The school environment is very quiet, there are stadiums, canteens, supermarkets and libraries, which meet the requirements of peace of mind and recuperation. After I settled down, I began to have the time and conditions to reflect on and study the transaction. Fortunately, I am eager to learn. If I don’t understand, I can find the answer by myself. I have read a lot of books and studied technical indicators, but there is still no improvement at the beginning. Instead, I fell into a dilemma. I have learned so much and haven’t made money. Is it because I am not suitable for this industry? The forum talks about human nature. Both. At that time, I was too complicated. Let’s not talk about epiphanies. After reaching the bottleneck, the road became simple. I started to turn around and stop studying such things as trend indicators. I first used the data of a certain ten to read news data. Later, I read more and found that there will be fixed information released at fixed time points every day, and fixed economic data will be released every week and every month. I started to list them myself. For example, global important The daily opening and closing performance of the stock market, the daily operations of the People's Bank of China, the opening and closing of onshore RMB, the level of fees in the Baltic Sea, and the release expectations of fixed economic data every week and every month. I also began to learn the correlation between global currencies, learn to see the impact of stock index futures on the spot opening, learn to see the impact of the US dollar supply chain on the global economy, and gradually have my own understanding of the basics of trading, and then do intraday range market , The market has gradually improved in the medium and long-term trend of low positions and relatively stable income. How can I say that I have a stable withdrawal of more than 500 US dollars a day (mainly for spot gold, and the position is maintained at about 10,000 US dollars) for living expenses, and now also on weekends. With time, energy and money, the family went out for a stroll, feeling simple and happy. After pouring so much water, I just want to talk about it from my own experience. No matter how many years of trading I have lost money, it only proves that there is no real basis for understanding investment transactions. For example, why do you need to take one subject, two subjects, three subjects and four subjects before you can officially start driving, so as to ensure that the steering wheel is safe in your hands. After learning the basics and consolidating knowledge, you can cultivate your mentality. Don't put the cart before the horse. The basic things are kindergarten, primary school, junior high school and high school. Those more advanced indicator systems should be something learned in college. A novice who is exposed to investment trading should not blindly look at the indicator trading system at the beginning, but settle down. Learn the most basic things, step by step from kindergarten, elementary school and junior high school. I have said a lot about it. Due to the rapid development of the Internet, trading and investment basically allow us to make money in unlimited time and regions, but whether it can become a life-long profit-making skill depends on personal practice. One last thing, find a good platform and learn it well. Technology can improve the quality of family life by hundreds of dollars a day. When you feel better, you can make orders more rhythmically and clearly.
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Ask the masters who have been making stable profits for 2 years, how many years of history is good for resuming after the establishment of the trading system? Starting from those aspects to optimize and then review, is it to optimize entry and exit according to the shape of indicators and K-lines? Is there also position management and profit-loss ratio like this? I was a self-study in a scam company a few years ago, and I really like trading. Please guide me with stable profit masters. I am grateful. It is too painful to study by myself, and I can’t sleep after studying every day?

connotation jokes tv
Thank you Matcha for the invitation. There are a lot of aspects to this question, so I'll go over it slowly. First of all, the subject of the topic should be a trader with several years of trading experience. Here I use experience, not experience, because from the point of view that you can’t sleep because of trading, you seem to be at a very new level. Strictly speaking, a few years of trading has not made you much progress, or fundamental changes. Now you think that trading still needs a trading system. This idea is correct. There is no consistent trading. It is impossible to succeed if you trade by feeling alone. Maybe you will make some money on the wind because of luck, but as long as you don’t leave In the market, after the turmoil, it still has to be returned. How to build a trading system? First of all, you must have a correct transaction logic. My own trading logic is that the market is unpredictable, no matter how far or near, it is impossible to predict, so I choose to follow the market, of course, this is my own trading logic, many people disagree, and it is normal, the trading logic is wrong Need to argue, as long as you believe it. Based on this logic, I chose a core concept of trend following, cutting off losses, and letting profits run. Once I have the trading logic, I will build my trading system around my trading logic. I will not adopt any non-stop loss, because it does not conform to my truncated loss logic, and I will not accept any ideas that are safe , because it does not conform to my profit-running logic, I do not pay attention to any operation of selling high and buying low, because it does not conform to my logic of trend following. I think anything can happen in the market, just because I believe it is unpredictable. The specific trading system is composed of three elements: entry rules, exit rules, and fund management. This is a set of essential elements that can become a system, although other details can of course be added according to the trader's preference. My own trading system is modified according to the turtle trading rules. Here I use modification, not perfection, because the turtle is a top-level trading system. There are some seemingly optimized modifications, but in fact they are only in another On the one hand, there are shortcomings where traders are not aware of, so the top trading system cannot be perfected. Different settings can only be made according to different traders according to their personal preferences, but many of the core contents are similar. Briefly speaking, the turtle trading rule is to break through the 20-day high to go long, break through the 20-day low to sell short, and then increase the position once without continuation of 0.5 ATR, increase the position up to three times, and then leave the market after the market pulls back two ATRs . How about it? Simple isn't it? It's easy to understand, but there are not many people in this world who can apply it. Why? It is too difficult to persevere, the retracement is large, the effect is slow, and the unfavorable period oscillates until it is worn out to vomit blood, but looking at those who persevere, they have long become masters. This book is the most detailed book on the trading system so far. The author used a book to write the few sentences I just said. He also wrote all the possible difficulties that this system may face. Whether you accept this concept or not, you should read it. If you don’t even have the patience to read a book in detail, then trading may be a bottomless abyss for you. After having a trading system, we always want to make some changes whenever the trading encounters an unfavorable period. This involves the optimization system. I roughly divide the optimizers into two forms. First, parameter optimization. For example, if you use the 20-day moving average, when your system frequently stops losses, you will doubt whether the 20-day moving average is not the best, so you look at the historical data of the golden decade, use the moving average to backtest, and find that, Why! The 25-day moving average is the most profitable, so you change the 20-day to the 25-day moving average trading, and after a period of time, it starts to retrace continuously. Are you wondering if 25 is not suitable? So you back-tested the data of the past five years and found that the 32-year moving average is the best, and you wondered why, it turned out that the 32-year moving average should have been used since it has changed in the past few years. But after getting here, everyone should know, what about when 32 doesn't work? He will change it again? Because the future market is uncertain, if you decide the most perfect parameter based on the history that has been formed, you will always be lost and unable to extricate yourself, and this is the over-optimization of parameters, how to avoid it, choose a cycle of your personal preference Parameters, consistent execution will do. Second, index folding optimization. Many people believe that one thing is that when the market meets the conditions of two, three or multiple indicators, the probability of making a profit will increase. This has a beautiful name called multi-indicator resonance. Is that actually the case? When the long-term average line arrangement meets the entry conditions, you feel unstable, and you have to wait for a macd divergence. If the macd deviates, you think it is best to have a special k-line pattern. Traders superimpose these things and think that they will get increase in probability. The movement of the market in the next second or the next period of time will not be affected by meeting the indicators you set. If indicator folding can really increase the probability, then I will make ten or eight indicators to meet them together, then Isn't it invincible? How can it be? And there is another question here, when a trading system is too complicated, you set five conditions, and if you meet four of them, can you do it? If you do, how about meeting three next time? Or if you meet the conditions of one, three, and four this time, and the next time you meet the conditions of one, four, and five, how do you choose? In the long run, there is simply no transactional consistency. Therefore, for optimization, when you optimize one aspect, you have to think carefully about whether there is a shadow on the other side. My opinion on optimization is that if it is not necessary, do not increase the entity. The answer to this question is almost complete. Finally, let’s talk about the data you asked about how long it would take to resume the market. I think it is at least ten years old. Only in this way can the sample be sufficient to make a judgment. The trading system you built is There is no positive expected return. Speaking of which, can a person who has made stable profits for more than 2 years be called a master? I think more research is needed. Are you satisfied with this answer?
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After many years of trading, I have deeply understood my own misunderstandings

weak water scoop
After years of trading in and out of the market, and countless ups and downs, I have a relatively satisfactory trading system. The current concept and logic are very different from those when we first entered the market. If our understanding is wrong at the beginning, it must be even more difficult to succeed in trading. If our ideas and logic are correct from the beginning, then we can achieve twice the result with half the effort. It is a mistake to think that if you lose nine times and make one profit, you can make it back. In fact, profit is the process of offsetting less loss with more winning rate, which is not noticed by most people. Perhaps, it is true that sometimes you can earn back nine losses and one profit, but you will find that this is not the case in long-term professional trading. Mistakenly thinking that opening a position is not important and closing a position is the key to determining the profit and loss of a transaction . On the surface, this is no problem, but if the timing and price of opening a transaction are wrong, no matter how good your closing skills are, how can you expect it to be profitable in the end! In fact, people who have stepped into this kind of misunderstanding have a method that can theoretically make a profit in the end, and keep increasing their positions without losing money until they make a profit. However, there is a prerequisite for the success of this method: that is, there must be enough money to add more, and the market must allow you to keep adding. But is it possible? Mistakenly thinking that where the stop loss is well set, you can open a position against the trend by relying on support and resistance . It should be said that if the control is good, this is not a very bad method, at least it is better than blindly pursuing the ups and downs, but the profit-loss ratio of this method is not attractive. It is often a large but small profit, which cannot withstand a big loss. And it requires the operator to have rich experience and skilled cooperation, do you have it? The misconception that risk management is at the heart of trading . In terms of trading skills, either think that there is no secret formula, or ignore its importance. And most people often know nothing about trading skills, or have been using wrong trading methods without knowing it. In fact, risk management is auxiliary, and trading methods are the core. Trading methods determine whether to make money or not, but risk management cannot make money, it is used to control risks. It is obviously not acceptable to place the expectation of making money on risk management that cannot make money. Just imagine if you start a company, whether the salesperson will help you make money or the accountant will help you make money. Misunderstanding that a stop loss is safe . Don't you know that unreasonable stop loss settings or poor entry points will lead to frequent stop losses, which is fatal. I basically don't set a clear stop loss position now. Of course, the concept of stop loss must be in place, even in the heart. Mistaking a stop loss can be harmful . Because the loss comes after the stop loss, in fact, most people's stop loss is caused by unreasonable stop loss setting or poor entry point. For masters, if there is no unexpected situation, the actual execution of stop loss is not common, and the market will always have unexpected times. If you think the stop loss is harmful and the stop loss plan is often not executed, even if you escape 99 times, you will be swept out by the market one time. This is the case when following a trader for many years in a group. Most of them can see his profitable account curve every day. It is common to turn over every week, but it always disappears on a sudden day. Later, he himself came out to say the explosion warehouse. I think this fatal liquidation is the reason why there is no stop loss.
Comprehend the transaction and record the growth
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Have you ever encountered a situation where the platform does not give money? How should I get back my own handling fees and commissions?

no waiting after due date
Although, I personally have not encountered such a situation, but according to your situation introduced by my friends on the platform, the platform will indeed block the withdrawal of funds. Today's platform merchants generally have very low transaction costs such as spreads, and none of the platform merchants will say that high-frequency trading is not allowed when opening an account and depositing funds. However, if you actually use high-frequency trading, the platform will really interfere with your withdrawal. I have learned that there are several situations where the platform interferes with the withdrawal of funds: The first type is platform vulnerabilities. It is to seize the small differences such as the time difference and price difference of the platform, and trade heavily. Especially when the data is released, some platforms are a few seconds slower than others in terms of time, or a little slower in price. Basically, traders will trade during this time period, and the holding time is very short. For this type, the platform provider will not give up the money. The second type, high-frequency trading, brushing EA. This kind of discriminability is relatively poor, and there is no fixed standard. This type of high-frequency trading can theoretically increase the trading volume for the platform. But the crux of the problem lies in the transaction volume. Today’s platforms generally have a rebate policy, and the cost of the platform needs to deduct this rebate, so the more you use, the more the cost of the platform will increase. Even if your account is not profitable, but a large amount of rebates have been generated, the platform is overwhelmed, and you will not be allowed to withdraw money. At present, these two situations are the only ones that I have come across that are not allowed to withdraw funds. As for how to recover the losses, I can't help you. Maybe you can seek help from relevant institutions, such as foreign exchange 110. They seem to have specialized staff working on this piece of content, you can ask.
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What are the routines in trading scams?

胖松说汇1
With the opening of the market, more and more people have switched from stock speculation to the foreign exchange market. There are also more and more so-called QQ shouting groups and WeChat shouting groups on the Internet. Looking at the screenshots and statistical data (including the records of non-VIP groups) of their orders in the VIP group, it is very real, there are losses and profits, and the records, time and point of the orders are also true, So why every time I enter the VIP group, I really can't make money? Could it be that I am so unlucky that other people make profits when they copy orders, but I lose money when I copy orders? As a senior person in the industry, I will summarize the usual routines of shouting single groups: 1. The given entry point and exit point are ambiguous For example: enter the market with an empty order near 1338-1340, stop loss at 1343; suppose the market falls before reaching the given low point of 1338, and quickly drops to 1320 when it reaches 1337, then pulls back to 1325 The call statistics are profit (1337-1320) 17 dollars. After carefully checking the profit of 17 dollars, it seems that there is no problem in theory. Let's start with the prices at both ends of this range. According to their logic, there is no problem entering the market with an empty order at 1337, because 1337 is completely close to 1338. If you don't enter the market, he will say that you are a little conservative and not firm enough to wait for a few cents The price of money missed a big wave of profits. And this is still for relatively aggressive customers. More conservative customers may have to wait for 1340 to enter the market, and they will only be scolded more severely. Besides, in terms of profit, during the entire profit-making process of this wave of short orders, generally they will not choose to let you exit the market at a certain exact price, but let you reduce your position and continue to hold to see the next target position. Why do you want to do this? If the next target position is reached, the profit will be the whole segment, and if it is not reached, the profit will be the first target position. However, if you reduce your position and continue to hold after making a profit in the actual operation process, if the market rebounds, then basically you will not make much money from this order. Besides the stop loss, if the market goes up and directly breaks through the 1343 stop loss position, then they will definitely count it as a stop loss of $3. Don't argue with them that if you enter at 1338, the short order stops the loss of 5 dollars, and they will say that you are too aggressive and did not wait for a better point. In short, this is how their list is given. Whether you should be aggressive or conservative is up to them. Summary must make big money without exception. In the final analysis, it is just a text trap. This way of calling orders can make a 3-year-old child turn over every month without opening the MT4 software, and it is inevitable. Why, because after the result comes out, the other party will analyze it in the direction that is beneficial to your own operation suggestions at each node of the operation. In all likelihood, you will make a lot of money, and if you don’t make money, you are either too aggressive or It's just too conservative. If it really doesn’t work, even if the order stops the loss, the big deal is to let the market take the blame. If today’s market is a bit abnormal, you can only say nothing. Generally, they will brazenly say that it is only a stop loss of 3 US dollars, and we want to make a big profit with a small amount. If we did not break through the stop loss just now, we must make a lot of US dollars. Stop loss is actually nothing. The most harmful sentence is that the first target position has been reached. Customers in the experience group should grasp the profit by themselves. However, no matter how the market fluctuates later, they will only repeat the above routine again. 2. The problem of synchronous follow-up of the real offer Let me first talk about some situations that occur in the fast market, fluctuating by a few dollars or even more within a few seconds to half a minute, many "experts" who call orders will choose a suitable point to prompt long or short, and then repeat the above routine. If you don't look carefully, you really think you have missed a good opportunity. There is also a situation where you stop the profit by a few cents or even a few cents, and in the end you stop the loss instead of taking the profit. Who can you ask for reason? On the contrary, if it is a few cents or a few cents, instead of a stop loss but a stop profit, then you have to start bragging about how accurate your prediction of the point is. Calling orders is easy but making orders is difficult. In the process of firm trading, the market is the same for you. Often even if the price is only 1 cent short of reaching the price, the ending is often the difference between liquidation or liquidation. In short, there are vague words in the order (generally within 3 US dollars) to enter and exit, near a certain point, grasp the profit by yourself, etc., the majority of gold friends should be careful. 3. From the experience group to the VIP copy order group In most order calling groups, the group owner or management will send some screenshots of the profits of the VIP customer group following the order at the right time. If there is a loss, then it is definitely not possible to post a screenshot of the profit of the VIP group empty order. Generally combined with the market, send some VIP group orders to earn more screenshots, or as a supplement, send some profit screenshots of callback orders, but this list is not given in the experience group. Encourage everyone to enter the VIP group to earn more. This routine is very simple in terms of operation, and basically friends who can type can do it. It is often difficult for these groups to find a customer in a few months. The group is full of their own trumpet, and it is enough to shout orders in it arbitrarily and non-stop. That's it. But what if there are documentary customers in the VIP group? Then only make a profit. Here I ask you two questions, and everything will be clear to the world. Will the 1 VIP call order group always call orders without stopping losses? 2 If there is a stop loss order, why is it kept secret? 4. Why is there no backhand order if the order made money? If the order that is called out makes money, it will generally let everyone close or reduce the position. It is rare to take the risk and call you a backhanded order. It is the business to contact the customer as soon as possible while the order is making money. If the market continues to fluctuate in the direction of profit, he will say the first The second and third goals have also arrived, and this order is a big profit. On the contrary, it can show how accurate his target point is, and if he is not satisfied just now, he will spit back the profits. Market fluctuations are just a tool for them to trick customers. 5. Psychological problems We can answer many questions for ourselves, but sometimes we deceive ourselves and others. For example, pending orders or waiting for a certain point to enter the market manually. Suppose now at 1330 you want to short at 1340, what is your reference basis, what is the success rate of this basis in the same situation in the past, have you carefully calculated it? I really think that it will reach 1340, so if the current price is long, it will be fine. Or this list is more stable because of the addition of a waiting point, and there is no regret in stopping the loss. My suggestion to everyone is to wait and see and count the order results of the order order group you are in. Ignore their statistical results, pull out all the order records in the group, and open the 1-minute chart of MT4 to compare and simulate orders. The result is clear at a glance. The above are some common routines that I have summed up after many years of practice. I also hope that the majority of peers will first improve their own level, and then serve the majority of investors with a real level, so that the business can last for a long time. It’s a very simple truth. Customers have the right to choose. If you trick a customer into investing with you, after the customer loses money, he is definitely not willing to invest. Then he will either choose someone else or stop investing. There will be no handling fee.
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How to deal with the problem of trend deviation between different cycles?

terminator
How to deal with the problem of the divergence of trends between different cycles? Before answering this question, let us take a look at Dow's division of trends. From the perspective of time length, the Dow Theory divides trends into three types, namely primary trends, secondary trends, and short-term trends, just like the tides, waves, and ripples in the sea. This image metaphor shows the length and scale of the trend. The different cycles we usually refer to are actually the trends of different cycles. The large cycle refers to the main trend, the medium cycle is the secondary trend, and the small cycle is the short-term trend. Of course, sometimes we are very short-term in the middle of the cycle, and directly summarize the main trend and short-term trend (secondary trend) with the large cycle and the small cycle. Let's look again at the Dow Theory's introduction to the different periodic trends: each trend is a component of the longer-term trend above it. For example, an intermediate-term trend is a correction within a major trend. In a long-term uptrend, a market that pauses its advance, corrects for a few months and then resumes its advance is a good example of this. And this medium-term trend itself is often composed of shorter-term waves, showing a series of rises and falls. It should be repeatedly emphasized that each trend is an integral part of its longer-term primary trend, and at the same time it is itself composed of shorter-term trends. Having said that, I believe everyone should understand that what we usually call a big cycle is actually composed of many small cycles. When a large upward cycle is running, sometimes it may be in a small cycle of shocks, and sometimes it may be in a small cycle of decline, but as time goes by, they must all move towards an upward trend, that is to say, shocks It is a relay of the rise, and the decline is just a normal adjustment of "big rise and small return". In such a situation, if you were a trader, what would you do? Of course, it is in line with the trend of the big cycle, and it is mainly to buy and do more on dips! The logic of the two principles is also the same in a large cycle of falling in one direction. You can reason about this. So, it shouldn't be a surprise when trends diverge from cycle to cycle, as it happens quite often. In the face of such a situation, what we need to do is to judge the trend of the big cycle clearly, and operate in accordance with the big trend.
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Use the cracks in the handicap to make profits continue to soar

向日葵研究所
From time to time, there will be unusual cracks in the trading market. The opening price of the new time axis price is different from the closing price of the previous time axis, causing the K bar to form a discontinuous fault, which is commonly known as a gap/ crack . In the early days, this phenomenon was called short jump or long jump respectively according to the relative position of the opening price and the former closing price. If the opening price of the new K bar is lower than the closing price of the former, it is called a gap ; if the opening price of the new K bar is higher than the closing price of the former, it is called a long jump . As shown below: The time when gaps are most likely to occur in the foreign exchange market is on weekends , because the foreign exchange market is closed for two days on weekends, but various countries are still in operation, resulting in the suspension of foreign exchange data, but in fact the national data still fluctuates, opening on Monday When the latest data is updated on the quotation table, there may be a gap with the price at the close of last week. Everyone has generally learned that the concept of a gap is: if a gap occurs, it must be filled . This concept is only partly correct, and I would like to take this opportunity to remind readers: the gap will not be completely filled! Gaps are not fully covered! Gaps are not fully covered! There are prerequisites for filling the gap, and the pattern signals generated according to the gap will also have different operation modes. Common gaps are divided into four types: ordinary, breakthrough, continuation, and exhaustion. Next, I will describe one by one what kind of patterns are represented by the positions of the gaps, and how we should interpret these patterns. Ordinary ▲▲▲ The gap position occurs in a fixed market, such as a consolidation zone, a triangle zone, or an equidistant channel. There is no new trend direction or a signal that can affect the original analysis logic for the market. To put it simply, the commodity trend will not belong to the ordinary gap because of the new analysis results generated by this gap. The position of the ordinary gap is still in the same range, so the chance of covering is very high, but in operation, because the price is still maintained in the original fixed range, the short-term operational benefit ratio is quite low, unless it is based on Daily and weekly level operations, otherwise it basically doesn't make much sense. breakthrough ▲▲▲ Usually, the market energy that forms a breakthrough gap will be greater than the normal market in the past, so as to show the pattern of breaking through the established market. As shown in the figure below, the original market was in a triangle convergence pattern, and the new K-bar jumped more gaps, and the opening and closing prices of this new K-bar remained outside the original range, which means that the next market will have A period of strong rise. (If the breakthrough direction is down, there will be a period of strong downtrend) In this chart, the next K bar after jumping to create a gap showed a decline, and the closing price returned to the original triangle range. First enter the market manually, until the K-bar breaks through to the outside of the range and shows an upward trend, then you can enter the market again with multiple orders. The chances of performing gap-covering for breakthrough gaps are not great in a short period of time, because there will be a period of unilateral market after the breakthrough. If you want to perform cover-up, you must wait for the heavy-volume market to be consumed before entering a callback or rebound There is an opportunity to fill in the gap. The direction of the continuation ▲▲▲ gap is the same as the original trend direction , the bullish trend continues to jump long; the short trend continues to jump short. The gap marked in the figure below shows long jumps, and the direction of the entire trend is also long, indicating that the upward sentiment in the upward trend is strong, which will help the trend continue to extend. The filling of the continuation gap will be determined according to the trading volume of the new K bar that created the gap at that time. Compared with the recent trading volume, the trading volume at that time is relatively large, and the chance of the phenomenon of covering will be reduced; if the trading volume does not increase significantly , indicating that investors have little confidence in this gap, thus reducing their willingness to enter the market, the price will easily enter a consolidation first, and the chances of successful cover will be greatly improved. Exhausted type ▲▲▲ It has the same timing as the continuation gap , but the direction of the gap is opposite . There is a short jump in the long trend; there is a long jump in the short trend. In the figure below, the bottom of the original market is gradually rising, and at the same time, it has steadily broken through the previous high point, which is an obvious upward trend, until a gap with explosive trading volume appears at the mark. It is not uncommon to see a gap in an upward trend, but it is dangerous when there is a gap with volume. The explosive trading volume means that many trading orders are executed before the current K-bar closes, and usually the main force causing the explosive volume is large households or institutions , and they are used to operating a large amount of funds first to smash the market, causing the price to fluctuate up and down. Bo, sweep most of the retail investors out of the market, so as to make yourself have a better cost to make a layout. I believe everyone is used to this method. Since the situation of trading is easy to appear, it is not difficult to cover the exhaustion gap, but the reverse market is easy to be manipulated by the big money. To survive here, you must master the art of stop loss. The concept of "the gap must be filled" is no longer applicable to the current secondary market. Today's trading system is different from that of many years ago, and the overall market flexibility and structure are not imaginable back then. Many concepts have long been inapplicable. No matter how old you are this year, as long as you are still executing transactions, you cannot have fixed ideas, and you need to maintain your own flexibility at all times so that you will not be abandoned by the times.
foreign exchange trading
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