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How to do every transaction well with a "return to zero" mentality?

the finishing touch for the currency market

Hello everyone, I am the eye of the foreign exchange market. Today we will talk about a sentence that I have been emphasizing. How should we understand every transaction with a zero mentality? Familiar old friends may have heard me say this many times. So how do we actually do it in the trading market? No one is a god in the trading market, and everyone will make mistakes. It is impossible for us to succeed in every transaction. To sum up experience after every success, and to sum up experience after every failure. Don't be arrogant in victory, not discouraged in defeat. Minimize mistakes as much as possible, which is the mentality often mentioned in people's trading. First, every trader will have his own trading system, which is what people often say, all roads lead to Rome. First of all, you want to test whether your trading system is feasible? How to be sure? Personally, I think we should look at the profit-loss ratio first, and then the winning percentage. If it's double matched then it's indeed doable. All that's left is to implement it, and no matter who you hear advice from, you can't hinder the implementation of your trading system. In fact, many traders are most likely to receive external interference. Although their own system is feasible, they do not firmly believe in their own point of view. After the market comes out, they feel regretful. Over time, the whole person will become less confident, and even feel that the whole market is aimed at you. What I just mentioned are people who have their own trading system, so let’s talk about what to do if you don’t have your own trading system, or if you have just entered this market. First of all, you have to think about why you choose to do currency investment? What is the purpose of your currency investment? Do you make a plan for yourself before every transaction (including how much you can lose at most in this transaction, how much profit you can earn, and what is the general direction of your prediction for the market today? What do you want to do? A trading cycle at the level, whether your execution is strong enough, etc.) So many people have been saying that I always lose money and so on. In fact, everyone loses money at times, but you didn’t do it yourself in advance. Prepare, it may also lead to more losses for a while, of course, this is also related to fund management, and how to build your own trading system, I will write a special article about my method in a later article. Second, in the currency market, we do not have a specific enemy. All participants are the same as you. All those who want to make a profit only think of making money. Don't think about where your money comes from. Buffett makes so much money (those who lose money should be jealous of him, right?), but the fact is that instead of treating him as an enemy, people put him on the altar and worship him as a god. In the market, your enemies do exist, that is greed and fear, and there is always a devil living in your heart. Greed makes people lost, fear makes people cringe. As long as these two enemies can be overcome, every month in the trading career will be a harvest season, and there will be no more winters and no snowstorms. Because of greed. Traders don't know what to do, and blindly chase ups and downs; because of greed, traders often don't give up until they reach their goals; because of greed, traders are afraid of missing trading opportunities, and can't stop killing people in a hurry before the actual arrival; because of greed, traders Going all-or-nothing often...these are things a trader wants to avoid as much as possible. Trading is a rigorous science (although its skills have artistic components, but that does not hinder its scientific nature), he has strict trading disciplines to abide by, that is, he must abide by the law of large numbers at all times, and must be aware of the market at all times. Remain in awe instead of praying to God to bless you with good fortune. In trading, the market is God, and you must keep up with the market at all times rather than against it.

The focus of the foreign exchange market is to talk about transactions

What is the process of trend formation?

高盛烨华

Trend is the key analysis point in investment. If you analyze the trend, your transaction will be half successful. Therefore, trend analysis has always attracted much attention. There are various analysis methods, but most of the analysis methods are to tell We, the current direction of the trend, but few analysis methods can explain the process of trend formation, then have we thought about a problem, if you don’t even know the process of trend formation, then your analysis of the trend direction will definitely be Is it good? Today, let's take a preliminary understanding of the process of trend formation. In the process of forming a trend, generally speaking, two conditions are required, one is a clear direction, and the other is a clear strength. Next, let us talk about these two contents in detail. The direction refers to the price going up or down. This up or down does not mean that if the price rises a little, it will go up, and if it falls a little, it will go down. As mentioned above, it needs to have a clear and distinguishable result. How to say it Woolen cloth? We all know that the market will not always go up or down in the process of rising and falling. It will always rise and fall. If there is always a fixed high and low point in the process of price rising and falling, and the price cannot break through, then in fact It can be understood that the current market is oscillating. At this time, the price seems to be in a box that cannot be broken. At this time, it can be understood that the price is in a state of no direction. When the price breaks through this box, it means that the price may choose a direction next. Of course, it is not ruled out that the price will re-enter a box again and cannot break through, but it is different if the price has a clear direction. Simple , if the price trend is upward, then it should be able to continuously hit new highs. For example, the price is rising now, and it has risen to 3000 points. Break through 3000 points and reach above 3000 points. At this time, you can simply understand that the direction of the price is upward. But is it enough to confirm that the direction of the price is upward? No, the upward direction of the price does not mean that the direction of the trend is also upward, because you are not sure whether the price can continue to rise in the future. For a simple example, I will take a small one now. If the stone is thrown forward, then we can be sure of the forward direction of this small stone, but how far can it be thrown forward? This depends on how much effort we used at that time, which is the same as judging the market. We are sure that the current market is upward, but how high it can continue to rise, we need to judge according to the strength of the price. If the direction of the price is upward , and at the same time the strength is relatively strong, then we can judge whether the price will continue to rise. If the direction of the price is clear and strong, then it can be judged that the trend direction of the price has been established. If according to my technical system, the price has formed a trend prototype, it means that the trend direction has been established, because the formation of the trend prototype, It is necessary for the price to have a direction of ups and downs, and at the same time have the strength to reach a new high or new low (hitting 1.382 means that there is a strength of ups and downs, and at the same time it means the formation of a prototype). The above is the formation process of the trend direction. When the price has a direction and has the strength to move forward in this direction, it indicates the formation of the trend direction.

trend following

How can beginners survive in the financial market for a long time?

sea²

This problem is not only a direction that beginners want to explore, but also a problem that most experienced traders want to overcome! When I saw this question, I let out a long sigh. This is a question similar to Tang Seng’s journey to the west to learn Buddhist scriptures. First of all, whether I am as lucky as Tang Seng is another question. In terms of Tang Seng’s own qualities: persistence, firmness, bravery... , I believe that few people in the market have it! Closer to home... There are several core practical problems in this problem: the first is the lack of professionalism, which can also be said to be lack of market experience or basic financial literacy; the second is long-term survival. It can be said that any industry that can survive for a long time is a professional The third is the foreign exchange market, which is another high-risk financial derivatives market! To sum up: Unprofessionals or those who lack financial literacy want to do what professionals do in a high-risk market. The difficulty, risks and costs are a great test for anyone! So, with regard to the two questions derived from this question, I would like to talk about my own experience and feelings! The first question: the conditions to survive in the market? First of all, correct your mentality! In addition to correctly understanding the definition of the market itself and being familiar with the current industry status quo, you have to bring your balanced mentality back to reality. Trading is not a tool for huge profits, at least for the vast majority of people; The very small number of people other than the majority! Once the mentality is not good, it often shows that you are too self-centered in trading, and even give yourself unrealistic profit expectations. Second, know yourself! Fully understand your own advantages and disadvantages, and don't follow the trend; too many myths about creating wealth in the market may distort your cognition and distort your own positioning; Follow up and observe the market for a long time, and then use your own understanding to find a market that belongs to you and is suitable for your operation. The so-called knowing yourself and knowing the enemy...you can only fully understand that you are combining your own understanding of the market, and find trading opportunities that you can interpret and identify! Everything else does not belong to you! Finally, capital! The financial market, especially financial derivatives with high leverage, is not so much a small-scale big deal, but a means designed by the game rule makers themselves. The small ones are very few dealers at the top of the game, and the big ones It's all the retail investors on the other side of the game! If you don't have a rigorous, scientific, and planned trading system, don't use leverage lightly! Dreaming of unrealistic fortune-telling dreams! There may be many friends who think that as long as they work hard, they can become people like William, Peter Lynch, Rogers, etc., and even comfort themselves that even if they have one percent or one thousandth of their achievements, It’s enough for me to be proud and proud of my ancestors, and then start the journey with thousands of dollars or tens of thousands of dollars; in the end, most of the scripts are, if you invest a few thousand dollars, there will be thousands of dollars in succession. bet! Because of the lack of correct positioning and expectations that do not conform to the facts and common sense, the originally rational transaction fell into a gambling ending! Regarding the third point of capital in the conditions of market survival, I prefer to use an example to assume: Recently, many people will ask or be asked, are you doing well in trading? How about the income? And so on similar questions: the strange thing is that people who lose money can answer without hesitation, the loss is serious or even close to liquidation, but people who make money are hard to say, as if the profit does not exceed 20% or 30%, they are embarrassed to say Come out, preferably 50% or even double; this is the human problem, hypocrisy and damn face that most people have! If a person says that the monthly income is 20 to 30% or higher, or even only talks about the amount of income but never the risk, then you can take it all as a joke after dinner! Anyone with a bit of common sense and a foundation in mathematics knows that it is not an exaggeration to say that this sentence is a scam or a trick! Because this sentence is calculated according to a normal mathematical formula, no matter whether this person is knowledgeable or capable, it is estimated that this person has no knowledge in ancient or modern times! To sum up: the most basic conditions for surviving in the market are personally summarized as: correct mentality , understand yourself and capital ! Regarding the second question derived from "how can beginners survive in the market for a long time?": the way to prolong their survival in the market? Why did this problem arise? It is a luxury to survive in this market for a long time. Regardless of whether you are a veteran, a beginner will eventually become a veteran. This problem still needs to be faced! For this question, I also summed up two points! The first is: properly arrange real daily life; Trading does not exist alone, no one can absolutely leave their circle of life alone to fully immerse themselves in the trading market, whether it is a person with a family or a grassroots without a family, if it is a grassroots without a family, they still have to eat three meals a day Thinking about the problem, it is even more unimaginable if there is a family with seniors and juniors, unless there is also a main business! If you don’t have a main business and you have a family at the same time, then stop here, because no industry can achieve short-term results, especially financial derivatives market transactions! What I want to say here is that the way to prolong your survival in the market is to arrange everything reasonably in your real life, especially food and clothing, work, your daily work and rest, and your relationship with your family! Because whether it is trivial matters or major events in life, it will subtly affect the transaction every day. Whether the transaction goes smoothly or not will also affect personal emotions and life! Therefore, it is a very important issue to make reasonable arrangements for your own life and transactions! Especially for beginners, it is more necessary to regard trading as a grade-examination subject, and set the goals to be achieved for each level. Of course, there must be time for learning, so that life, work and learning trading can coexist harmoniously! Second: Make a daily plan for learning to trade; This can be divided into two steps, the first is the learning part: because at present, there is no right or wrong in the way of trading and learning, and the only way is to find various resources on the Internet and learn various methods and techniques, because This stage is unavoidable. There is no shortcut to trading. You can learn everything. Only the more you experience, the greater the effect and the more stable your mentality. The learning process will always be accompanied by trading; the second is daily practice: If beginners want to greatly reduce their early tuition fees, in addition to using the simulated trading to familiarize themselves with the fluctuations of the trading market and trading products and the functions of the software, it is best not to use leverage in the real trading stage, prohibit cross-product trading, and prohibit stacking positions and increasing positions ; Every time a transaction is over, look for a chance to try again! There are only a lot of real trading operations, and what you have accumulated is not only the sense of trading, but also the training of market risk perception and mentality! In addition, it is to arrange a time period for firm trading every day, so that life, work and learning trading have their own independent time and space! Just like there are three meals a day for three meals a day, and there is time for sleeping, so learning to trade also requires time to learn trading! Finally, it is added to emphasize : the most important point for beginners is to prolong the way of surviving in the market. If you do not fully understand the market and have not accumulated a certain amount of real experience, remember not to increase leverage and increase positions. Cross-variety is also allowed... Once curiosity Crossing the red line, all plans and preparations will be completely overturned in a short time, and you will be eliminated even before you fully understand the market risks or get started! Finally: I wish all friends who are struggling in the trading business smooth sailing and realize their goals and ideals as soon as possible!

Ten Years of Grassroots Trading History

Whoever gets the capital flow wins the world?

时空

I have always been interested in the topic of capital flow! I have always believed that in trading, those who can explore the financial logic behind the K-line and grasp the flow of funds can freely trade the market. The saying "the trading market is an ATM machine" will not be a dream. First of all, what is the flow of funds, and why does the flow of funds play an important role? We all know that prices are determined by supply and demand. When demand exceeds supply, prices will rise, and vice versa. Therefore, the continuous flow of funds into a certain currency means that there is a strong demand for the currency, which will promote the continuous rise of the currency price. Therefore, if the K-line trend can be used to dig out the flow of funds behind it, grasp the current supply and demand situation, and then be able to make predictions and judgments on price behavior, and gaining profits will be a matter of course. Secondly, we must understand who is leading the flow of funds? Anyone who trades knows that there are 4 trillion funds traded in the trading market every day. In such a huge market, only these few people can really dominate and play a decisive role: central banks, hedge funds, market makers and banks. and other financial institutions. These large institutional investors pay more attention to fundamental news. When there are economic data affecting a country or black swan news, they will often make trading decisions, which will affect the supply and demand of the market and cause price changes. Since so many institutions are leading, does it mean that the flow of funds is elusive? It will not be elusive, because the purpose of the institution's trading is to make a profit. Since it is to make a profit, after the institution enters the market, only when the market moves out of a certain space in the direction it expected, the institution will be willing to give up. Back to the initial state of finding the state of supply and demand. As shown below: The two big negative lines marked 1 in the figure fell. Let’s assume that it was affected by data or news. In an instant, most traders were short-sighted and caused a rapid decline. Such a decline did not cause all funds to enter the market, it could only be Some people have entered (the funds will enter the market only after choosing a suitable price, and will not enter the market all the time). This caused a rebound of 2. When the rebound returned to the original position, and finally returned to the initial supply area, it immediately closed the long upper shadow line. At this time, it is the key position where everyone is bearish, and it is also a good position to open positions. Some funds enter the market, the short-term trend is formed, and the bearish position is confirmed. From this we know that the first characteristic of capital flow is: it has a herd effect. Because of the herd effect, we don't need to clearly distinguish the type of each trader, is it the central bank? bank? These are not important, we only need to judge whether most of the funds choose to enter or leave the market according to the K-line trend. (Digression: So in fact, fundamental analysis is useful, because most institutional investors choose the direction of trading based on fundamental analysis) The second characteristic of capital flow: rapidity Behind the transaction is ultimately operated by people, so the rapidity of funds is the embodiment of human greed. Because of the rapidity, it is easy to cause a rapid rebound or fall when the market has a large profit. As shown in the figure above, after the long upper shadow line appears, the bears have a certain advantage, and then slowly fall in 2, which further confirms the entry of short-term bears; the last wave of 3 falls ends the bear trend. Because it has fallen out of a certain space in a short period of time, due to people's greed, some funds will choose to close their positions, resulting in a subsequent rapid rebound. This is also why many people feel that the market has started a short trend when they see 3, and open short positions, but instead there is a rebound of the big positive line, so liquidation happens from time to time. The third characteristic of money flow is: morale I still remember an article in classical Chinese in junior high school, "Cao Gui's Controversy", which talked about morale: once the spirit is vigorous, then it will decline, and three times it will be exhausted. Everyone must have remembered it! Repeatedly means: the momentum is the most vigorous at the beginning, if it continues intermittently, it will often have negative results. In fact, this can be seen everywhere in transactions. The second example mentioned above also shows this feature, so you can experience it yourself. I have always been curious why the wave theory proposes 3 waves instead of 4 waves, which probably has something to do with momentum. The above are the three characteristics of the flow of funds that I have summarized, and these characteristics have been guiding me in trading. In fact, it is not difficult to say that trading is difficult, because you only need to discover the financial logic behind it from the K-line pattern and trend, to find out the direction of the funds of the large force, and then enter the market and wait, just be a "free-rider" trader up! Of course, it is not easy to say, how to find out? How to verify? It's a long learning process. So friends, come on! Properly dig out the flow of funds and be your own trading king.

daily trading view

Do you know what "break-even" is?

ea专业户1

It is difficult to make money in trading, where is the difficulty? Why are most people losing money? Why do you make money for a while, but still lose money in the end? Why does the trading model I made look good sometimes, but the result is still losing money? Let’s talk about breakeven today . This word is easy to understand, but this word is difficult to solve. It can be said that basically none of the strategies available on the market can solve the problem of break-even. Let's take the most common Martin as an example. Can Martin make money? within the stage. Can Martin make money all the time? Extremely difficult! Why is it extremely difficult? Many of you Martin have tried. For example, I changed the stop loss to a smaller size. 500, at this time you will find that stop loss is very easy, right? Then I will change it to 1000 at this time. The stop loss is less, but there is still a stop loss Then I will change to 3000, and the stop loss will be less. So can I make money? no…… Because the speed at which you make money cannot keep up with the speed at which you lose money. When your stop loss reaches 500, you will lose less, but the stop loss is very frequent. The stop loss is 3000, and the stop loss is less. But if you stop the loss once, you will not be able to earn back. Then, some people will think, can I reduce the distance between positions and increase his earning speed? Someone must have tried it. The results of it? You will find that his fault tolerance rate has been reduced, making money faster, but the probability of stop loss is higher. No matter how you debug, the end result is losing money. what is the reason? It's breakeven. The speed of making money, the size of the stop loss, the frequency of the stop loss, the fault tolerance rate... these sets of data will stump many people. If the reconciliation is not good, the final result must be unsatisfactory. Some people will say, as long as I make enough money in a limited time, I will leave the market, isn't it all right? Novices who have played minesweeper games will know where the mines are! everywhere~ There is a word called Murphy's Law, which is not something you can avoid if you want to. If you want to play Martin well, the above four conditions are indispensable. If you can't reconcile them well, you will find that you can't go on at all. Accidents and risks are everywhere. We are talking about trends or many types of one order at a time. Many people will find a phenomenon that if you suddenly change the number of hands, you will suffer a lot. There are many strategies for one order at a time, which is floating single thinking. What is a floating order means that the stop loss is very large and the take profit is very small. If you look at the account history, all the orders are profitable. If you look at the positions, you will see floating losses. Many manual traders also have this problem, they leave when they make money, and carry it when they lose money. The results needless to say. Everyone knows that this is definitely a loss, why? The profit and loss structure is out of balance. It is impossible to make a profit of 10 yuan and a loss of 100 yuan. Then there is another approach, which is to take a small stop loss and a small stop profit. When you look at the strategy model, the accuracy rate is very high, but when you actually run it, you lose money in a mess. Why is this so? "cost"! Costs account for the majority of profits. For example, 100 stop profit, 100 stop loss, generally one profit and one loss, the loss is about 20. The more orders, the more losses. That is to say, your cost occupies too much of your profit margin, and this structure is also very problematic. The structural model seems to be fine. However, the cost accounts for too much of the profit. If your cost exceeds 10% of the profit, the final result is generally not very good. The result of any model actually has a corresponding algorithm ratio. If the strategy model does not rely on the calculation of breakeven, it will definitely be a loss in the end, no matter how you do it. Some people say that my winning rate is as high as 90%, but I lose money. Some people say, why do I make money when I increase my position logarithmically, but I still lose money in the end? Some people say that I do a good job in manual trading, but I don't make any money. The root cause of everything is the balance of profit and loss! Breakeven is a calculation problem. Whether you trend, multi-currency martins, single-currency martins, or manual trading… If you don't calculate the balance point in the middle, the final result must be a loss.

Trader Training Base

What is best Trick for Executing an Effective Scalping Strategy ?

Chandan Gupta

To execute the strategy effectively, a trader must be able to spot trends in the market, anticipate upticks and downswings, and be able to understand the psychology behind a bull and bear market. Effective scalpers must also be able to read and interpret short-term charts. They must often make decisions based on stock charting that is within 1- to 5-minute intervals. Scalpers look for key indicators such as moving averages and pivot points in the market to quickly determine if they can execute a trade. Scalpers invariably always come across losing trades, but a successful scalping strategy and discipline can help maximize the wins and minimize the losses. Scalpers must also have liquidity and adequate capital in their portfolio to trade. They must subscribe to generally Level II platforms that show live bids and asks for specific stocks, as well as have an exceptional – generally wired – internet connection. It helps to prevent technical factors from decimating your trading strategy. If the data you were receiving as a trader had too much latency, it could mean you are acting on outdated technical data and have already missed your window for a buy or exit from a stock. It could make for frustrating losses and missed opportunities.

SCALPING SECRETS

Blockchain - closer to the essence of currency

起止点

Currency is created only for transactions, and when it is seen as wealth stored in an account, has it deviated from its own essence? Confusing money and wealth will smooth out the characteristics of wealth itself, and I think blockchain technology will promote wealth and money to distinguish each other. 1. Discrimination and Analysis of the Nature of Currency Wealth is used for storage, and currency is used for transactions. The traditional account-based statistical method misleads people to regard currency as wealth, while the ledger-based blockchain pays more attention to the transaction itself, which is closer to the essence of currency . When I receive 100 dollars, I don't care how the 100 dollars were earned. But when people evaluate an economic activity, they will consider factors such as the broken window effect, economic complexity, nanny economy, and high-tech industry. This shows that although money is indiscriminate in people's minds, wealth is different. This distinction is erased when wealth is abstracted into money. In the process of being abstracted, the impression of wealth on us has changed from the earliest common objects such as land, grain, and livestock to the specific objects such as silk in the Tang Dynasty, salt in the Song Dynasty, and precious metals in the Ming and Qing Dynasties. , so that today's legal currency, digital currency, etc. Accompanying it is the gradual blurring of the cognition of the specific attributes, functions and rights and interests of wealth. For example, in an era when wealth is considered to be land, people will consider whether they have the right to buy and sell, whether they can change the use of the land arbitrarily, and whether they can let the land go to waste, etc., and the corresponding land use rights will be restricted. But in the era when wealth is considered to be currency, people will think that since it is their own money, it should be 100% at their disposal. This suggests that wealth without specific attributes is not constrained. In order to distinguish the difference between the concretization of wealth and the abstraction of money, it is necessary to classify the use cases of money. According to the behavior classification of dealing with people and money, it can be divided into three situations: acquisition, holding and payment. Among them, the acquisition can be divided into labor remuneration, capital gains, loans and free gifts; the payment methods can be divided into consumption, investment, lending and free gifts. If we look closely at the economic activities associated with each method, we will find that the rights exercised over currency are different, and the corresponding rights are also based on different basis. For example, a private enterprise has 100 employees and a boss A. The average monthly income of employees is 3,000, and the net income of boss A is 300,000. This shows that the boss is as important as all employees. But the reason why A can play the role of the boss is firstly that the industrial and commercial society determines the existence of privately owned enterprises, so there must be a private boss, and secondly, A has outstanding ability and becomes the boss in the social competition. Therefore, in the role of the boss, the social environment contributes most, and A's personal efforts contribute a small part, but all of these are counted as A's income. If A’s income can be differentiated, the labor income part should be used freely, and the capital income part is the joint contribution of individuals and society, which should be used with restrictions. But employees are different. No matter in industrial society or agricultural society, they are laborers. The nature of personal income will not change due to social development, and all income should be freely controlled. When the wealth rights and interests are clear, A is the capital custodian exercising limited rights, but when the wealth rights and interests are not clear, A is the capital owner exercising all rights. Another example is the huge amount of idling currency in the U.S. financial market, which is nominally no different from the currency in physical transactions, but the currency in these virtual economies cannot flow into the physical market on a large scale under normal circumstances, but can only buy financial assets, because Once they withdraw from the financial market, the price of financial assets will plummet. However, after the financial tsunami, these low-quality bad coins can be laundered and cashed out through the bailout of the Federal Reserve, and circulated in the physical market openly. What has shrunk is the purchasing power of hard-earned wages in the hands of ordinary people. If you can distinguish the circulation process of every penny, you can characterize them and prevent such theft. I think that based on the principle of "whoever pays, who benefits", the payment of rights and interests should correspond to the way of acquisition. What is obtained from the society should be given back to the society, and what is obtained by individuals should be used for individuals, that is, capital gains should be mainly used for reinvestment. , and the income from labor can be used by individuals at will. If these rights and interests are to be clearly divided, it is required that not only the currency can be classified according to the method of acquisition, but also the purchased goods or services can be recorded according to the method of payment. That is, the full digitization of all currencies and physical objects in the transaction network. And the current form of money simply cannot do that. 2. The battle of the trend of digital currency I think the most important feature of digital currency is to record transactions, and the greatest power of currency is the right to issue and liquidate. Grasping these two points can distinguish the similarities and differences between different trends. The information at the end of the article mentions that "in terms of the specific implementation of the central bank's digital wallet of a commercial bank, the digital currency wallet ID field can be added to the existing bank's basic account. The role of the wallet is mainly for storage. Since it is not in the balance sheet of the commercial bank In addition, it does not participate in the bank's interest calculation and withdrawal. If this is the case, it means that the digital currency accounts of commercial banks are only for the convenience of promotion. In fact, the central bank has opened digital currency accounts for everyone. That is to say, the central bank can see all the transaction records and has the right to bookkeeping, but only authorizes commercial banks to act as an agent for bookkeeping operations. In this way, although commercial banks still have certain terminal influence and share transaction records with the central bank, the central bank has completed centralization. So I don't think it is much different from the Bank of England's model in essence, but it will be much worse in terms of liquidation efficiency. In the past, the central bank could only know the flow of funds at the level of commercial banks and regulate finance. After digital monetization, it can bypass commercial banks and directly affect the end of economic activities in one step, just like a dripper converted from flood irrigation. But I think even if the Bank of England can bypass the commercial banks, it does not mean that the western banks have lost their dominant power. After the currency is digitized, it only makes them lose the income of deposit and lending, but in the era of negative interest rates, these losses have little impact. Digitization does not affect banks' advantages in financial speculation, nor does it affect the central bank's QE, and of course it does not affect the bottom line on financial crises. Although the form is changing, the owner of the currency issuance rights and bookkeeping rights has not changed. The Bank of England's digital currency is more like a salvo to the masses of the Bitcoin revolution. The point of this article is that due to the characteristics of blockchain technology in journals, it can restore the details of economic activities, and its application in currency and commodities can solve the above problems. references: Essence Analysis of Central Bank Digital Currency: Financial and Technical Dimensions https://m.zjbyte.com/sbfp/finance/article?groupId=6754272424348353031&ite mId=6754272424348353031×tamp=1588877148&article_category=stock &req_id=20200508024548010 018085213082FD573&group_id=6754272424348 353031

Knowledge popularization: You may have misunderstood QE

起止点

This time I want to popularize a word that everyone is very familiar with, but most people may not have thought carefully about the meaning behind this word. That is QE. I didn't think there was anything to say before. We have been talking about it for many years, and everyone should know it well, but later found out that it doesn't seem to be the case. Many people have many misunderstandings about the term quantitative easing. QE is also called LSAP or this is the correct name, translated as asset purchase plan. Many materials on the official website of the Federal Reserve use LSAP to express quantitative easing. Of course, it is not impossible if you have to call QE. How is quantitative easing implemented? First of all, we must make it clear that quantitative easing involves the expansion of the central bank's balance sheet, that is, additional currency issuance, but this additional issuance does not involve printing money. It simply records a number on the account, which expands the balance sheet. How does the central bank expand its balance sheet? The process of asset expansion starts with the central bank buying treasury bonds or other types of assets. For example, if you buy a national debt, you have to pay others, right? So where does this money come from? This money is created out of thin air, and it corresponds to the expansion of liabilities. Central banks acquire assets by paying reserve deposits. Reserve deposits are liabilities of the central bank. How do you understand this? That is, the money you deposit in the bank is the bank's liability to you. Then the reserve deposit is the money that the bank deposits in the central bank, which is the liability of the central bank to the bank. If the bank is the seller, it is equivalent to the central bank owes the bank a deposit, then the central bank will pay the bank a reserve deposit to buy the bank's debt. If the seller is an individual, for example, if my debt is sold to the central bank, then the central bank will also transfer the money to a bank. Why? Because that bank is collecting money on my behalf. After the bank gets the money from the Federal Reserve (reserve deposit), it will record a deposit of the same amount in my account, which is equivalent to the bank acting as my financial intermediary and completing the entire payment. This is how central bank balance sheets expand. The essence of QE Because what you bought was treasury bonds, in fact there is no additional issuance of debts, why do you say that? Because the purchased treasury bonds are assets in circulation that have been issued before, and financing activities have been completed, so it does not involve additional issuance. Therefore, quantitative easing does not actually involve the addition of new assets and liabilities in the market. It just buys the stock assets in the market and converts them into currency. For the central bank, this is actually a currency issuance. Because the stock assets in the market are converted into currency, and the assets are withdrawn from circulation at the same time, the national debt in the market will decrease. For the central bank, it is an expansion of the balance sheet, and then absorbs part of the assets into its own balance sheet. Then, for those parties who sell assets, they have actually completed asset replacement, that is, asset a has been exchanged for asset b. For example, when you hold treasury bonds, it is a claim on the US Treasury; and when you sell it, it becomes a claim on the central bank. Why implement QE? There are two benefits in theory. The first is the improvement of liquidity, which is easy to understand. I bought your assets, and you have an extra sum of money in your hand. You can use this money to do many things. The second is the so-called portfolio rebalancing, which is also the transmission mechanism that former Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke has been talking about. I bought your national debt, which is a kind of safe asset, and the less and less safe assets you buy, there will be no safe assets for you to buy in the market, which will increase your risk appetite, buy some junk bonds, buy some Corporate bonds and the like mean that your money will flow to assets with higher risks. This is portfolio rebalancing. The purpose of this is to allow you to pursue high-risk assets instead of putting money on safe assets.

Is it possible to have high return but low risk in trading forex?

fong zi cheng

Achieving consistently high returns with low risk in forex trading is a challenging balance. Forex markets inherently involve risk, and the potential for returns is often linked to the level of risk taken. However, traders can adopt strategies to manage and mitigate risk. Here are some approaches: 1) Risk Management: Implementing sound risk management practices is crucial. This includes setting stop-loss orders to limit potential losses, diversifying your trading portfolio, and not risking more than a small percentage of your trading capital on a single trade. 2) Use of Leverage: While leverage can amplify returns, it also increases the risk of significant losses. Conservative use of leverage is important to manage risk. Many experts advise using low levels of leverage or avoiding it altogether, especially for beginners. 3) Technical Analysis and Research: Thoroughly analyzing the market through technical and fundamental analysis can help in making more informed trading decisions. Understanding market trends, economic indicators, and geopolitical events can contribute to a more strategic approach. 4) Educational Resources: Continuous learning is essential. Traders should stay updated on market trends, risk management strategies, and new developments in the forex market. Many educational resources and courses are available for traders to enhance their skills. 5) Demo Trading: Before risking real capital, practice trading in a simulated environment. This allows you to test strategies and understand how the market works without the financial risk. It's important to note that while these strategies can help manage risk, no approach can completely eliminate it. Forex trading requires a disciplined approach, continuous learning, and an understanding that there are no guarantees in financial markets. As such, traders should carefully assess their risk tolerance and financial situation before engaging in forex trading. Seeking advice from experienced traders or financial professionals is also advisable for those new to the forex market.

Trading Forex With Zi Cheng

If you want to make a stable profit, start with making high-quality transaction records

jiaoyi golden eagle

Do you often encounter situations like this: When you see certain patterns appearing on the chart, enter the market immediately, because it was profitable to enter the market in this situation before, so you can't miss the opportunity. But something is wrong today. After you enter the market to go long, the market starts to fall. You are a little surprised, but you still think that it will definitely rise, you can’t be wrong! But the more you want to go up, the more it goes down, the market seems to be against you, your heart is bleeding... When you really can't handle it anymore, you can only reluctantly "cut the flesh" with frustration and annoyance. What is the problem? You are very depressed, you open the transaction records of the software to check, and try to recall the original situation, but the memory is already blurred, and the harder you think, the less you can remember. If you look at the chart of the large period, you can’t find a clue; if you want to look at the chart of the small period, you can’t find the chart anymore, because the software records limited data. But the real situation may be in the same form. You have lost several times before entering the market, but at that moment, your greed brought out these profitable memory fragments and put them in front of you... . Sadly this happens quite often... Have you found out where the problem is? A big reason is that you may not have kept trading records, so you always enter and exit the market based on feeling, rather than system and principles; And if you are already making transaction records, it may be that you are not doing enough "quality goods". Some people will say, isn't there already a transaction record on the trading software? Is it necessary to make a manual record again? Yes, it is necessary. Whether you are a novice or a veteran, if you make a transaction record, then it will become a huge treasure for you! For novices, transaction records will be an important basis for building a trading system. For veterans, transaction records are an important tool to improve their skills and keep improving. Why is the transaction record so important? Because the transaction record is not simply to record each order, but to record your entry reasons, exit reasons, market conditions at that time, your psychological state and other important information. These will be available to you in the future. When every trader first enters the market, he will often make mistakes. Traders who do not keep trading records can hardly be aware of, or even be completely unaware of, the mistakes they make, and the same mistakes will be repeated one after another. And by recording every trading situation, you can easily find the mistakes you made, and constantly reflect and correct them in the mistakes. Only then can your trading level be continuously improved, and you can continue to improve and grow. Transaction records can not only correct mistakes, but also allow you to summarize and summarize better transactions, and then transfer them to future transactions, so that your overall profit level will increase. By analyzing transaction records, you can intuitively realize your weaknesses and discover your strengths, so that you can maximize your strengths and avoid weaknesses, and keep improving. So how to make a boutique transaction record? Some veterans who have been in the market for several years also keep transaction records, but it is too simple, and the available value is much less. Since transaction records are so important, it is necessary to make transaction records as detailed as possible. The steps are as follows: After admission—— * Save all the screenshots of the charts of each cycle during the transaction, the cycles you usually use from large to small; save the screenshot of the entry delivery order; * Write down the entry basis; write down the stop loss position and basis; write down the target position and basis; write down your psychological state when entering the market; * Write down if there is any need for improvement when you enter the venue; * Write down your forecast of the future market, what situation can increase your position, what situation you must reduce your position, and what situation you must get out of the market, all written down. After playing—— * Save the screenshot of the chart when entering the market; save the screenshot of the delivery order when entering the market; * Write down the basis for your appearance; write down your psychological state when you are out; * Write down if there is any need for improvement when you play; * Summarize the experience and write it down: what did you learn in this transaction? In case of loss, did you exit the market according to the stop loss position? Why loss? How to improve? Did you make a mistake? If so, how can I not make the same mistake again? If you make a profit, do you enter the market at your expected take-profit position? If not, why? Is it possible to summarize this profitable experience into a model and transfer it to future transactions? Is there any room for improvement in this transaction, can it be done better? Did you implement the exit plan you made when you entered? If not, why? How to improve your executive power? To go further, you need to make a trading plan, because the trading plan made before entering the market will be more objective and will not be affected by emotions. For veterans, they also need to check whether they have strictly implemented the trading plan? If not, what causes it? How to improve? Make good transaction records, find out the countermeasures to these problems, and slowly your transactions will become more and more stable. The transaction records are our treasure, how to dig out as much value as possible? 1. Regular review If we want to improve our skills, we need to review frequently, every day, every week, and every month. During the review process, I kept asking myself, how can I do better ? Some people may have some doubts, thinking that the transaction records have been reviewed, do they need to be repeated? It is really necessary, because in the process of continuous improvement of your skills, your understanding of the market will also continue to deepen, and you will learn new things by reviewing the past . The same record, if you look at it in different periods, you will always have different gains . 2. Statistics After a period of time, every month, or every six months, or every year, make a comprehensive statistics of your transaction data: Evaluate your own trading level—— * What is the proportion of profit orders? What is the average profit amount of a profit order? What is the average profit point? What is the maximum profit? Is it luck, or a strict execution of the trading plan? Is there still room for improvement? * What is the proportion of loss orders? What is the average profit of a loss order? What is the average loss in pips? What is the maximum loss? What causes it? How to prevent this from happening again? * What is the winning percentage? What is the profit and loss ratio? Compared with the winning rate, is the profit-loss ratio reasonable? How to improve winning rate? How to improve the profit and loss ratio? Is there a way to reduce losses or increase profits? * How many consecutive profit times? What is the number of consecutive losses? Is it possible to increase the number of consecutive profits? For the highest number of consecutive losses, does the position need to be adjusted accordingly? What is the maximum drawdown? How to reduce the maximum drawdown? Is it better to reduce the position, or is it better to take a break for a period of time due to continuous losses? Analyze the pros and cons of your own transactions—— * Which trading variety are you good at? Which trading variety are you not good at? Is it better to participate more in the varieties that are good at? Is it necessary to eliminate or less participate in the trading varieties that are not good at to improve the overall profit? * Which cycle are you good at? Which cycle are you not good at? Is it better to participate more in the cycle you are good at? Is it necessary to eliminate or reduce participation in cycles that are not good at to improve overall profitability? * Which form or market conditions are you good at? Which form and market conditions are you not good at? Is it better to only participate in the patterns and market conditions that you are good at? Is it necessary to eliminate or less participate in forms and market conditions that are not good at to improve the overall profit? * Which trading method are you good at? What kind of trading methods are you not good at? Is it better to only trade what you are good at? Is it necessary to eliminate or reduce the use of trading techniques that are not good at to improve the overall profit? Many data trading software can automatically count, but it will also count many guaranteed orders and orders with very little profit or loss, which will cause partial distortion of the data. If possible, the data calculated manually is more realistic, so that you can better understand your real trading level. Find ways to solve all the problems and formulate effective countermeasures. For novices, you can gradually build your own trading system and principles; For veterans, they can also constantly improve their own level and keep improving, so as to make their profit level higher and higher. If a worker wants to do a good job, he must first sharpen his tools. Trading records are an important tool that allows you to go from an amateur trader to a professional trader. If you haven't started keeping track of transactions, you should do so now; If you have been making transaction records for a period of time, please make it a high-quality product as much as possible, and try to dig out the value in it, so that it can become an important partner to help you on the road to stable profitability!

Jiaoyi Golden Eagle Exchange Circle

Adding up positions with compound interest, sweeping losses and taking profits (Part 1)

作曲家

Compound interest plus warehouse, sweep loss and stop profit Compound interest: introduced in the previous article Increase position: continue to add additional purchases Sweep loss: the set stop loss position Take Profit: Set a stop profit in a certain way Then compound interest + increase position + sweep loss + stop profit = my following content! The first point is to have a scale in your heart! Assuming a $1,000 account with a leverage of 1:400, see the picture: This is the hourly chart of 2019.05.13, my preset entry position plus position, so Take care of yourself and don't bb me! ! ! Ba zui gei wo bi shang! ! ! First of all, your trading method is suitable for increasing positions, and second, you must have a first order that you can hold. This set of compound interest plus position sweep loss and stop profit is currently applicable to my trading method. Although it has been improved and what you are talking about is also version 2.0, it is probably enough, and I don’t want you to use it mechanically. See if it fits first! Each of us has a single net worth retracement, a loss line that we can bear! I set the net value to retrace 2%, 2% of 1000 US dollars is 20 US dollars, if the first stop loss is 25 points. 20/(25*10)=0.08 lot, 0.08/0.01*3.1=24.8 margin Here is an important point: the more advantageous your entry, the smaller the stop loss, the lower your cost, and the higher your profit Second warehouse : How to set the number of hands in the second warehouse, if we calculate by double. 0.08*80 points=$64 profit, 0.08*2=0.16/0.01*3.1=requires a deposit of $49.6. After the second warehouse enters the market, the stop loss position of the first warehouse is pulled to the stop loss position of the second warehouse, and the profit can be saved together! If 64 is greater than 49.6, the condition for opening a position is satisfied. If the loss is swept away, you can earn 64 dollars - 0.16 hands * 20 points = 32 dollars. Remember, don't take heavy positions, everything must be within the controllable range! This is the first article on compound interest and escalation. I have to prepare for a trip to other places on Saturday and these two days. Come back and write down the following ideas for you, the problems you will encounter in each warehouse, etc. I am mainly sharing the good trading methods that I have already used. People are alive. If I use this method now, I don’t need to deliberately calculate it, and practice makes perfect. So, looking at my calculations so accurately, I just want to bring this idea to bear. Everything is different. I know a guy who used his method and went all the way to the black. The first 5 warehouses were wiped out and the principal of the order without profit can be kept. There is one more sentence I want to share: this is a game played by people, don’t let the game play you

What is trend pattern trading

How to make money like a professional trader?

似水流年

I would like to ask you a few questions. How many people are thinking hard about how to do transactions alone? Has anyone ever been trapped above 5,000 in stocks? Do you have this feeling - when you buy it, it falls, the point is very negative, and you can't stand the cut, and it rises as soon as you sell it. I am eager to invest, but I feel that it is difficult to start. I feel that I have no inside information when I am doing stocks, and I feel that the futures market is very complicated. , At 3 o'clock in the morning, we have to wait for the Fed's interest rate decision. In the Asian market, we look at the Japanese yen and the Australian dollar. In London, we trade in the British pound. In the US, we trade in gold and crude oil. Many friends have been injured in this market, how long can your novice aura last? The halo of a novice is just entering the market and made a sum of money out of nowhere, but the good times didn’t last long. After making the money, the next few transactions quickly gave back the profits within a month or two. The reason is simple, what is most important now? Professionalism is the most important thing. For example, if you are not a doctor and have never learned how to operate, can you perform surgery on people? cannot. Then you are not a trader trained by a professional institution, why do you think you can make money? What is the secret to long-term stable profitability? Let's take a look at it first. Every industry can be divided into laymen, apprentices, etc. After being instructed, they become teachers, and then become masters and masters. The most important process is the learning process. If you don't learn, you can't see the market clearly, and you can't use your knowledge to realize it in the market. What is the core of making money in investing? How can I make money? Buy low and sell high, it's simple. Here comes the question, how low is low, and how high is high? It's easy to say it orally, but it's hard to do it in practice. Who is the counterparty behind your screen? Is it just the Goldman Sachs trader who is about to ship? He ships at a high position, and you just buy in. The investment market has no boundaries and is a game played by global investors. The question is, how many are professionals and how many are amateurs? Today I want to tell you that if you are not professional enough, don’t imagine yourself making money stably for a long time . You may take a gamble and make hundreds of thousands of dollars in full positions. After withdrawing money, you will never play again. As long as you continue to do it in the market, as long as you are not professional, you will definitely be eaten by professional people. This is the iron law. The basic differences between professional traders and retail investors are: The first is induction training. Professional traders first train for 200 hours, and then do simulated trading after one or two months. A lot of training takes up 80% of the working time, and the elimination of the bottom, more than 100 people may leave only 10 people in the end, but retail investors have no induction training at all, and they don’t even count as occupations. Some people are introduced by friends or watch the news. I feel that foreign exchange is very profitable, so did you have a sound mind before entering? If the mind is not sound, then it will be miserable. The second is wind control. Strict risk control is not only the risk control of each order, but also the risk control of funds and trading strategies, as well as the risk control of the selection of investment products. For example, on Brexit, Aunt May had just finished two sentences and we were confident of reaching an agreement, but suddenly the cabinet resigned and the pound plummeted. At that time, the United Kingdom was always troubled by the news of Brexit, and the pound rose and fell sharply. Would professional traders touch the pound? Unless you have particularly strict risk control, you need to avoid this market. Risk control should also be reflected in whether there was a reasonable reason to operate at the beginning. Professional traders have many levels of control over risk control. Retail investors have almost no risk control. They manage themselves and are prone to impulsiveness. I have made a lot of money in the short term, but I am still unwilling to reduce my position. Once an individual investor has a floating loss, when it’s over, and buys/sells wrong again, wait and carry it again—the original loss of 100 US dollars, and suddenly another loss of 1,000 US dollars, thinking that if they leave, won’t they lose more? I started losing $2,000, what should I do? Many people choose to become ostriches, they don't look at their accounts anymore, and their minds are quiet when they are out of sight. It’s so worrying, don’t read it for three days, and check it after a month, why is there only 10% of the account left? I have seen with my own eyes a $300,000 account, 20 lots of gold, and a position of $1,300. When I asked me, it was $1,260, and I lost $40. The total loss was $80,000, and there was still $220,000. Is there any help? I said that we should quickly cut the order and go short after the rebound. The customer says that the money is not bad, and if the margin is not enough, you can make up. You are absolutely not allowed to lose money, and you must make money. In the end, when the gold price was 1,200 US dollars, I lost a total of 100 US dollars, and the total loss was 200,000 US dollars. At this time, I became nervous, and asked if there was any help? The $1260 did not run away, but increased the position, and then it exploded. After that, I re-deposited 200,000 and continued to carry it, and kept carrying it. It was really gone when it reached 1,140 US dollars, and it was locked at 1,160 US dollars. Once locked, the price rebounded. The conclusion is that many individual investors do not have the courage to face losses. Why do their floating losses range from thousands, to tens of thousands, to hundreds of thousands? During this period, I have been asking whether the floating loss will become a real loss if the position is closed. The underlying psychological reason for not wanting to face losses: Losing this money proves that one’s previous decision was wrong; the second proves that one is a fool ; Compared with the latter, the latter accounts for a larger proportion, and most retail investors have to save face because they want to brag. During the bull market, Aunt Zhang and Aunt Li bought vegetables and chatted every day like winning lottery tickets. During the bear market, the market is not good recently, the stock is trapped, you bought it, and I was trapped. When you lose money, you need psychological comfort. If the whole world earns and you lose, you will feel too miserable. The first reaction of many people when they face a loss is not to cut it off at a very young age, and want to get out of the game/the loss is smaller before entering the market. Does this kind of thing happen to professional traders after you have to untangle it? Will they have the same mental processes? The answer is that professional traders don't have any chance to make this kind of mistake. Before each entry, they have two questions: 1. Where to buy/sell 2. How much do I want to buy, and what is the risk value I am willing to pay? In this market, as long as there are a few conditions to make money? One is the ability to repeat infinitely . If you want to make money, you must keep opening and closing positions repeatedly. You can't just do one transaction, and you must have the ability to discover opportunities infinitely repeatedly. Second, the winning rate is slightly higher. The third and most important point that when investing, as a professional trader, I never thought of comparing the correct rate with others . I have analyzed so many markets, maybe half of them lost money, but my final profit is still Top 1, why? Because half of the money I lost had a small stop loss, such as 30 points or 50 points, while the other half of the profitable orders had an average profit of 500 points per transaction. In other words, if each of your transactions has a 1:10 profit-loss ratio/odds, what kind of confidence does this give you? As long as you are not only right once out of 10 times, then you must be making money. As long as the winning rate is greater than 10%, you must be making money. As a result, your winning rate is 50%, then you must be making money. So, is it important to look at the market and direction? Not the most important, but you can't get everything wrong. How much money you make when you are right, and how much money you lose when you are wrong, the ratio between the two is very important. Therefore, the key is whether the winning rate is guaranteed to be 50%, and secondly, is the profit-loss ratio more than 1:2? If these two points can be guaranteed, then the money will be made more and more.

Forex Trading Research Institute

The essence of trading

山城老刁民

(1) Technical analysis is one-sided I have read countless books and articles on technical analysis, so I know that the result of learning 99% of the books on the market is-lose! Because most of these books are very one-sided and do not have a high success rate. For example, books on stocks often use an example of the most violent rise and doubled several times to explain a golden cross to illustrate his technical strength. Most technical analysis books are saying that if this indicator phenomenon occurs, then you will get that result. In fact, it doesn't stand the test at all. Most of the classic technical indicators and K-line combinations, even including morphological breakthroughs, if used without discrimination, the success rate will even be lower than 40%. As a result, there is a phenomenon that if you don't learn technical analysis, you still have a 50% success rate in tossing a coin, but you only have a 40% success rate if you learn technical analysis. Using it according to the textbook will only make you lose money. Technical indicators are of course very useful, but they also require high-level application, otherwise there will be a 50% chance of winning if you don’t learn technology, and the success rate is less than 40% if you learn technology. Behavior patterns determine your results. In general, wrong behavior patterns will inevitably result in repeated mistakes. And being right is just random luck. Fortunately, the sow also climbed the tree. Using technical analysis to operate is a behavioral pattern, which is quite stable, so it can be stabilized at a low success rate or a high success rate for a long time. So there is the possibility of continuous improvement and profit. (2) Technical analysis cannot put the cart before the horse do what? Of course, it is to predict the trend to make money! Everyone is working hard to make money. Art number, technical analysis, fundamental analysis. The technical indicators are also full of tricks and unconventional. However, everyone knows that when the technical indicators have a golden cross, they can be bought, but they often don't think about why the golden cross should be bought? The reason for buying is to judge that the price will rise, so you have to buy to make money, but if it is golden cross, it must rise, and if it is dead cross, it must fall? Of course it's impossible, it's just a matter of whether the success rate is large or small. How to identify incorrect entry and improve the success rate? Then we have to mention the question of essence. If you don't study the essence and stay at the appearance, then the cart is putting the cart before the horse. Almost all technical indicators are calculated according to the price in a certain way, that is to say, they follow the price fluctuations, not ahead of the price fluctuations. It is impossible for any indicator to perfectly express and judge the nature of price fluctuations. Undoubtedly, there are many limitations, so it needs the cooperation of various technologies and even manual comprehensive judgment and filtering to do well. Including some so-called leading indicators, it is actually impossible to predict! It is just a judgment based on price calculations or speculative data, indicators, not prophetic rules. If when an indicator buy signal is issued, the market situation does not reflect a higher probability of the market rising, so why buy it? If the indicators are stuck together, buy and sell signals are frequently sent out, do you still have to do it? If the golden cross occurs after a lot of rise, then this golden cross may mean that a decline or consolidation is coming. In fact, the price determines the indicator, not the indicator determines the price. Through technical analysis, we try to find out the bias of market sentiment, the bias of long and short, and the divergence and unity of mainstream forces, so as to judge the long and short. The popularity bias determines the capital bias, and the price is driven by funds. (3) Fate may have been preordained No matter how good your analysis is and how sure you feel, when you place an order, you are placing a bet. Assuming that you earn 20 points each time and set a stop loss of 40 points, then you need to make two trades to make up for one loss, that is, the 66.6% success rate can only break even. Only a 70% winning rate can make a slight profit. Undoubtedly, to achieve a success rate of more than 75% to make a profit is a dead end for ordinary people, and it is almost doomed to lose money. Only a few people can do it, and even if it can be done, it is not a good way . Conversely, if you earn 40 points every time and set a stop loss of 20 points, you only need a 33.3% success rate to break even, and a 40% success rate to make a meager profit. If you earn 60 points each time and set a stop loss of 20 points, you can make money with a 30% winning rate. The trading masters who make the most money outside the box do not have a high success rate or even only 40%, because they lose less when they lose money, and they are good at increasing their profits in a timely manner when they make money. The profit model is nothing more than earning more and losing less overall, because it is impossible to make every profit. There are 1 modes, high winning rate, earning more times than losing. But taking a risk of one point should not be less than one point of profit, and more than 50% power can also make money. It is necessary to have a good technique. 2. The winning rate is low, but if you make a profit, you must withstand the loss of 2 or even 5 transactions. This strategy can be used by people who are not technically in place. This only requires a certain technical foundation, a rough trading strategy that follows the trend, and then controls the risk-benefit ratio, using mathematical model control to achieve the result and finally profit. The behavior model determines the result, and the ending may have been decided from the beginning. (4) Every opportunity may be a trap Every day, there are always many people staring at the computer and waiting for every opportunity in the market, absolutely not allowed to miss any opportunity. Maybe you think it’s activated now, this K line is more powerful, this guy has finally started to exert his strength, let’s enter the market! Everyone in the market has seen it, so is everyone making money? Of course it is impossible. It is impossible for most people to make money in the financial market. This is the basis for the existence of the financial market. The market is a big fool, and there are often some specious so-called opportunities and launches before the real launch. You always want to seize every opportunity, so you will not miss the traps that account for the majority. Nervous people are often dizzy by the market. To be a winner, you must have enough technology and experience to avoid these traps, and only make a small number of relatively reliable opportunities. (5) Not conducive to long-term survival mode The following are the operating modes that are not conducive to long-term survival and novice survival 1. Do both long and short intraday trading, regardless of trends. It is not so easy to make full use of all opportunities. Most people can't do it. 2. Often operate against the trend. And those who feel that it is almost time to go, guess the top and bottom, and those who follow the trend are just borrowing strength, and sailing against the current is thankless. 3. After placing an order, the loss locks up the order. Most people will make guesses without a strong basis in their minds, or want to narrow the gap after locking up the order. ) 4. If you make a loss after placing an order, you will think that you have made a mistake to close the position and do it in the opposite direction immediately, but there is no reliable technical basis. Even if you make a mistake, you will double and reverse it, and make more mistakes. In most cases, you can indeed make money, but sooner or later One day they all went bankrupt. 5. It is a taboo to increase the position in the case of heavy positions or losses, and it is also the road to sudden losses! 6. Excessive price chasing is also easy to get caught. 7. Break through after a lot of ups and downs. At this time, the use of machinery to break through and open positions is easy to be reversed or falsely broken through. Empty on the floor, more on the ceiling. (6) luck It is said that luck is unreliable, but some people are just lucky, and they came back after getting hundreds of points a few times. Take a closer look, they are all orders following the general trend. In fact, luck is related to behavior patterns. But luck and the trend are also unreliable. You can’t stop loss just because of the trend, because the trend will always reverse, so as long as you make a mistake once, you may lose your position. (7) Signal application of technical analysis The bullish trend callback uses technical bottoming or a small cycle to launch a bullish attack signal to buy. In the short market, long stocks rise and sell with the signal of peaking or the signal of small cycle short attack. The reliability of the peaking signal for the bullish trend is small, and the reliability of the bottoming signal for the short trend is small. The short trend is downward, and the possibility of trend continuation is always greater than that of reversal. There can be multiple rebounds in a downtrend, but there is only one final reversal. In terms of probability, various short selling signals are the most accurate. When a buy signal occurs in a bearish trend technique, you think that a rebound or reversal is about to start, but in fact it is not very reliable, and even if it happens, it is often not strong enough. On the other hand, since the trend of the bull market is more likely to continue, isn't it more reliable to use the signal of buying at the bottom in the bull market? (8) advance and retreat right and wrong It is most likely to happen in actual combat. After placing an order, you only think about the direction of your own order, and you don’t think about the wrong situation. Don’t just think about the positive side. If you place an order, if it is contrary to what you want, then where is it? reliable support? How far is it from here? If it's too far, forget it. If it is in the form of rebound buying and the drop is less than 38%, consider giving up. (9) Launch and breakthrough signals, false breakthroughs The market is full of tempting and confusing signals. In the small cycle, there are many obviously prominent K-lines. How to filter? In many cases, contrarian signals are not reliable and should be used sparingly. Note that microscopic things such as one or two K-lines, the breaking of the moving average in some cases, often cannot change the whole. Sometimes it is not so stable. Subtle details may be the fuse of the overall collapse, but they often only play a role in driving the trend within tens of minutes. If you don't come out in time, you will have problems. So wait, maybe a more definitive breakout establishment signal will happen, at the cost of only 10 or 20 pips more. There may also be a strong retrograde after a slight breakthrough. The signal at this time is extremely clear! What we need is a strong and powerful signal, which does not need to be carefully observed. It is so clear and strong that this kind of signal can truly stimulate and call on the big funds in the market to follow, and then move forward indomitably. Those weak signals that need to be carefully observed may be obvious in a small period, but they are not strong. Such signals are unreliable, and there is a high possibility of false breakthroughs. In addition, there is an obvious retrograde immediately after the order is placed, indicating that it may be wrong, although not necessarily, if there is a chance, it should be out of the game with a small loss or with capital preservation. You can't see flat money or small profits and start fantasizing again. Breakthrough? Attack? In order to find these signals, in essence, we are not looking for a golden cross or a positive line, but a breakthrough of the situation! If the trend has clearly broken the original pattern of consolidation, then It is credible, if not, why believe it? A false breakthrough is actually a breakthrough, but it has gone in the opposite direction. Deliberately created a trap that triggers a stop loss order)! After a breakthrough, it weakens quickly, and even breaks in the opposite direction. (10) Small stop loss strategy Some people stop the loss at 10 pips and require that the order will not be subject to shocks, that is, the trend will never return. This kind of order. There are only two types: one is extreme edge trading with strong support pressure. One is a one-sided and powerful trend. When entering the field, the attack must be strong, otherwise there will be no situation where the other side is unable to fight back or unintentionally overwhelming. Do not participate in any slow-moving exercise, otherwise it is easy to be knocked out, and unnecessary bleeding is also fatal. (11) Increase in intraday trading Only in strong trends and strong fluctuations can there be enough space, and it is easier to break through various resistances. This kind of list can be considered to increase positions and use trailing stops. Even transactions that follow the trend are not always going forward, so increasing positions within the day is not possible Take it lightly, only if you determine the big fluctuations. The weak contrarian fluctuations are limited, only within 10 to 30 points, and generally do less or not. The position must be precise, never chase the price, and never increase the position. The position is not even as good as opening a position with 2 units. If you open 2 units, make a profit and then make half of it. To make a profit, it is necessary to keep the profit in time, especially when the speed is very slow or when it is not going well. In addition, it is not suitable to use a moving stop loss. After all, the profit is very small, and the return is more than ten points, what else? It is better to close the position directly at the resistance level. (12) Trading strategy All the important rules are to follow the trend, look for the weak direction and use technical signals instead of forcing. Similarly, weak direction and strength are not suitable for chasing or increasing positions, and the same is true for small-level graphics, because they do not have that much effect. The rest is specific technique and discipline. Taking advantage of the trend to increase positions is not only the direction of the current intraday fluctuation momentum, but also the direction that is consistent with the 4h and even the daily band. Only in this way can we provide a broad space imagination and market impact. (13) Size cycle A small callback in a large cycle and a small cycle is already a reversal pattern. Therefore, in many cases, the reversal of the small cycle is not terminated very quickly, because the return slip of the larger cycle is already in place. The large and small cycles match each other, and the technical rules of small cycle fluctuations are effective before encountering the technical position rules of the large cycle rules, but after that, the small cycle rules will become invalid! For example, in the 4H downward trend, when it rebounds, you can fall back and touch the Bollinger Bands in 15 minutes to buy, but if it rises to the upper track of the 4H Bollinger Bands and then falls, it will not work, because the rules of the big cycle determine that it will fall a lot. Arms can't twist thighs. Small cycles are mostly controlled by large cycles. The contradiction between large and small cycles is generally not contradictory, but I didn't notice that these movements are all in the palm of the large cycle. (14) let’s talk about increasing positions If the profit is too small to ensure the safety of increasing the position or there is not enough space in the future, it is indeed impossible to increase the position. But there is another important point. If the situation is very good after you place an order, and a new purely good order point appears, then it is irrelevant. Because of the small profits in front, there is more reason to win, because the total The loss is small. Assuming that your position is profitable and continues to run under a strong trend, then when you have already calculated to open 2 new positions, and you plan to hit a stop loss of 15 points (the specific amount depends on the situation), the old gain There are already 4 shares of profit positions, so the loss of 15 points back is 6 shares of 15 points! Calculated in this way, is there still a profit? If there is, then under the condition that you have controlled the absolute profit, it is no big deal to go all out! Then I can use a 15-point trailing stop loss in the old position! Then open a position, set a 15-point stop loss, and add a 15-point trailing stop loss! I don’t have to wait for him to be hit when I set a trailing stop loss, and I have a profit , I can consider the issue of closing positions as long as I call back at 15 points to close all positions! So the whole process is already under control, so what if it is close to a full position? This kind of position control is to increase the position after it is absolutely risk-free rather than seemingly risk-free , to be watertight! (15) disagreement When the popularity collapses, there are the least differences, so the variables are the fewest and the power is the greatest. On the contrary, when there are many differences, there are many variables. When the trend is strong, there are few divergences, but there will be divergences after a few waves of ups and downs. become volatile. If possible, I will try to wait for the market to go from divergent to unified, and the running-in shows a clear direction. (16) Main supporting pressure Overbought and oversold, golden section, Bollinger bands, horizontal lines, trend lines, moving averages, pivot points, integers, divergence. Select some of these elements depending on personal preference, and draw them in advance to avoid omissions. The effect of multi-position golden section overlapping is better, and the effect of floating golden section is not good. Various technologies can form a synergy effect, otherwise the effect is relatively poor. The effect of upward pressure is generally poor, and it is not credible to use the lower support effect of short trend. It is not credible. Nor is it allowed to believe in support! Short positions are similar. (17) Keep making mistakes Not everyone can achieve a success rate of more than 80%, and more people have a success rate of less than 70%. The foothold of trading strategy technology is not to make profits from constant correctness, but to make profits from constant mistakes. Can make a profit, because we only have a little success rate at the beginning. Until we reach the level of high success rate. But in fact, the success rate is not directly proportional to the amount of money. Keep summing up, what is the reason before placing an order? The mentality fluctuations and changes in the process of holding orders, the reasons for flat orders, and the summary of right and wrong. If you put more effort into this, you can avoid repeating the same mistakes too many times, and if you lose less, you will improve. The profit model is summarized, and the profit will be more. It is also a good way to wait patiently, only make your own stable profit model, and do one trick at a time when you are mature. (18) There are always variables, always add stop loss This order made a lot of money, pure luck! ! ! Who knows whether the trailing stop loss will be eaten up? It is very possible that there are 10 points left in half a day, and even a lot of stop losses are hit as soon as the position is opened. Technology is nothing more than the addition of experience and technology. No matter how stable the profit is planned in advance, it may fail in the end. So every time you place an order, you need to place a stop loss. If you don't think about the negative side, you will often lose your objectivity. It is said that a certain emperor asked the Supreme Emperor how to avoid liquidation, and Wei Xiaobao handed over four words: always add stop loss.

old troublemaker in mountain city

Hui Classroom: 9 MT4 usage tips that you don't know can make trading smoother

hui classroom

Content source: Wechat public account Huiclassroom Sometimes the difference between us and the foreign exchange giants can be seen from the use of chart tools without looking at the account profit record. MT4 is also used, the boss can make the best use of everything, and Xiaobai can only use its superficial functions. Today, Hui Class will share with you 9 MT4 usage skills that you don't know. MT4 is a third-party foreign exchange trading software, and most traders have authorized its use. Although this software has been born for 15 years, it is still the most popular trading tool. This stems from the fact that it can not only meet the lightweight functions of technical analysis and trading orders, but also perform a large number of third-party integration operations. Many trading platforms will give MT4 usage guides, so today we will not mention the basic usage functions of MT4, let's take a look at MT4 tips that you may not know. 1. Custom indicators This is the first function to be mentioned. There are many built-in various indicators on MT4, but with the improvement of trading skills, we need more technical indicators, so we need to add some external indicators, which may be purchased by yourself or developing. How to insert external indicators in MT4? You only need to find the storage source file of the MT4 indicator, and then save the external indicator to the indicator source file, and then call it. But this operation needs to be done on the computer, unless you can find the source file on the mobile phone. The main operation steps are as follows: Open the MT4 software, click on the file - open the data folder. In the folder that opens, click on the MQL4 folder. After opening the MQL4 file, find the Indicators folder and click it. Put the downloaded indicators directly into the Indicators folder. Note that you need to restart the MT4 software again when using it, click Insert - Technical Indicators - Customize, or find the external indicators you need in the indicator navigator. 2. Adjust the lines The default lines of many indicators or tools on the computer side are rays. If there are too many tools added to the chart, it will appear cluttered and interfere with the line of sight. Therefore, these can be adjusted through property settings. For example, the trend line, the default parameter is a ray, when using it, you can cancel the ray and change the line style according to your own needs. 3. Adjust the chart style For visual beauty and clarity, many MT4 default charts have a black background, black and white candlesticks, and grids. If you feel that the visual effect is not very good, you can also modify it in the properties. By modifying the colors of the background, foreground, white candle, black candle, etc., you can make your chart more intuitive and pleasing to the eye. 4. Select the tool object in the chart There are too many auxiliary tools other than indicators in the MT4 chart, such as trend lines, horizontal lines, vertical lines, Fibonacci, etc., when you want to select one of the objects to modify, the default selection method of MT4 is to click the mouse twice. This can also be modified to 1 time, which is more convenient. You can select Tools-Options-Object in the menu bar, and select "Click the mouse to select the object". 5. Save and load templates When you have a relatively mature trading system, you can save it as a template and then apply it to different trading varieties. Instead of adding indicator setting parameters every time, this uses the technique of saving and loading templates. All templates will be saved in the templates folder of the data folder. For example, in the USD/CHF chart, the adjusted zigzag indicator is good. If you want to apply it to the EUR/USD chart, you can save this set of indicators as a template and name it zigzag. Open the EUR/USD chart and load the template directly. Select the zigzag template to see the exact same trading strategy reflected in different trading varieties. 6. Changing traders can save all settings Changing traders is a common thing, so all the things you set up on MT4 and transaction history are lost because of changing servers? A knowledgeable person will pack everything up, and changing traders is not a hassle at all. Remember to save your own data folder. After selecting a new trading platform, just overwrite the data folder with the new source file location. 7. Multifunctional cross star I don’t know if you have used the cross star function. It can not only display the corresponding time and price of the current K line, but also can be used to measure the space for profit and loss. Especially when setting a fixed stop loss space, it is necessary to measure the distance. At this time, there is no need to calculate, and it can be done with the cross star function. After inserting the cross star function, click and hold the left mouse button and move the mouse to test the distance between different positions and the original position. For example, as shown in the figure below, point A is the original position of the cross star, point B is the moved position, and a series of numbers (8/316/1.32354) after point B respectively indicate that the time interval between points A and B is 8 hours, and the point difference 316 points, the corresponding price at point B is 1.32354. The point difference can be mainly used to measure the take profit and stop loss space. 8. MT4 free backtest function Especially for part-time traders, there is no need to spend money to buy backtesting software. It can be realized by using the backtest function that comes with MT4. The first simple backtest function, you can directly press and hold the F12 shortcut key, and you can watch the automatic playback of the candle chart. Move to the right one candle at a time. The second is that you can download historical transaction data. If you want to see more data, you need to select all the cycle charts, and in the tool-option setting, enter the maximum number of bars in the historical data as the maximum value. During backtesting, if you want to quickly find the K-line chart of a specific date, just double-click the MT4 date column and enter the date. 9. Commonly used shortcut keys in MT4 Shortcut keys can greatly improve your work efficiency at work, and the same goes for transactions. Mastering the common shortcut keys of MT4 can improve transaction efficiency and save time and effort. Ctrl+N - Navigation Ctrl+I - open indicator window Ctrl+F-Crosshair Ctrl+Y - Show date line on chart Ctrl+W - close the current chart window Ctrl+Z - undelete object + chart zoom - Chart zoom out Alt+1 - Histogram Alt+2 - Candlestick Alt+3 - Line Chart F2 - Historical Data Center F7 - trading system parameter settings F8 - Chart main window properties F9 - place an order F10 - popup quote The above is about the sharing of tips in the use of MT4. If you want to do a good job, you must first sharpen your tools. I hope these tips can make your trading more convenient! Do you have any other MT4 usage skills, welcome to share with everyone in the comment area.

Forex learning advanced circle

What process will the transaction go through from the beginning of pure novice?

muzi trading

How does a novice Xiaobai learn foreign exchange trading? Let me summarize the process that foreign exchange trading will go through from a pure white. 1. Proficiency in the operation of foreign exchange transactions This includes several aspects: 1. Proficiency in trading software (this is the foundation and there is nothing to talk about). 2. Understand the main trading hours. 3. Understanding of foreign exchange contracts. I believe that now it is basically operated by platform operators, and it is rare to open an account in a bank. To trade foreign exchange, it is necessary to clarify the contract value, leverage, and margin calculation of foreign exchange contracts. This is very important, because it concerns the calculation of positions (position management). 2. Learn 2-3 mainstream indicators (such as K line, moving average, Sto is kdj, Bollinger, etc.) Why do you say to learn 2-3 indicators instead of asking you to learn a lot of indicators? Trading does not rely on indicators at the end. If you know too many indicators, you will not be able to get out if you get stuck later. Learning 2-3 indicators is to give you a basis for placing orders in the early stage. For learning this indicator, you can read the book introducing mainstream indicators or find someone who is a little proficient in the use of several mainstream indicators in this industry to explain it to you. Understand the most basic usage of several indicators, and remember not to dig deeper into the use of indicators . . Many people say that it is useless to read this book or that book, the book of this great master or that great master. Those books are valuable, but they are not what you should read at this stage. Just like "Memoirs of a Stock Operator" if you read it, you will only read it as a story, and you have no way to understand the things in it. 3. After understanding a few basic indicators, the simulated disk simulation exercise It is very easy to open a demo account for the next mt4. At this time, you need to understand that the demo account is not for you to learn how much money you can make, but to be proficient in the use of those indicators. This time can be long or short, as fast as a few days or a week. 4. Understand several economic data that often appear in foreign exchange I am proficient in the operation of the analog disk, and have a basic basis for placing orders. Next, it's time to learn about several common national economic data and news events. For example: non-agricultural, US index, ADP, GDP, initial applications, CPI, PPI, PMI, QE, interest rate resolutions, central bank meetings, etc. Understand the short-term impact of these news on the market, but remember to let you understand, not to trade based on this. Because these news are time-sensitive, the impact on the market trend is within a certain period of time, and how long this time-limitation is, let alone a novice or a master, it is difficult to judge. Since the trade is not based on this area, why do you want to understand the news? There is only one purpose. Most novices do not understand position management, and the positions will be relatively heavy. Make an order when the data is released. (Those who like to bet on data say otherwise) This process is about 1-2 weeks enough. 5. Open a micro firm account There is almost a month of study preparation time ahead, and I can be regarded as having a relatively comprehensive understanding of foreign exchange trading. Next, you can open a micro firm account, such as $100 or $200. Here is a suggestion, the account should not exceed 500 US dollars, and every time you place an order, place 0.01 lots. Remember, only place 0.01 lots. Stick to it for half a year. If you can stick to what I just mentioned for half a year, you will definitely thank me for this sentence. Haste makes waste, and there are three functions for you to do this, one is to keep you alive, and you will not suffer heavy losses; the other is to dilute your gambling nature and cultivate strict discipline for you instead of gambling for quick money . Foreign exchange margin trading is like electronic drugs, let alone how strong your resistance is, people's desires cannot be controlled. In the first half of the year, it is not impolite to say that you want to get rich through foreign exchange trading, but it may be close to zero; third, the mentality of the real offer and the simulated offer are different. You adjust your mentality to gradually deepen your understanding and perception of foreign exchange margin trading. 6. Communication The communication mentioned here is not communication in the ordinary sense. In the first half a year, you will definitely have exchanges with people in the industry, but at that time you yourself did not have a deep comprehension and understanding of trading. The so-called theoretical misleading of people with half a bucket of water, or they simply cannot understand the sentiments of those powerful traders. It is difficult to communicate with different levels of understanding. For example, when I say that trading is not to predict the trend, but to respond to the trend, how many people can understand? In the minds of a large number of retail investors, whoever judges the market trend is accurate will be awesome, but what about the truth? Expert exchanges never talk about how to predict market trends. If you can endure the days when you only made 0.01 moves in the first 6 months, I believe you will feel enlightened when you communicate with those awesome people in half a year. Only at this time can you really enter the threshold of foreign exchange trading. But I know that people nowadays are too eager for quick success and too impetuous, and there is no one in a hundred who can do it for 6 months. 7. Explore and build your own trading system After the first half year of real trading practice, and the communication with the master later, the understanding of trading has reached a new stage at this time. Summarize the trading records of more than half a year, find out the reasons for your own profits and losses, and think about how to make it as possible as possible To avoid losses, the trading system will gradually generate ideas. 8. Establish a trading system and strictly implement it It is difficult to build your own trading system, but it is not easy. Some people can do it in a few months, and some people can't complete it in a lifetime. Look at personal opportunity and understanding. Once you really build your own preliminary trading system, what you need to do later is to strictly implement and continuously improve your system. Make stable profits. Nine, flexible use Use it flexibly, with a system in mind, but without a system in mind. To put it simply, I can flexibly use different systems to deal with different market conditions. This level is my goal, and I haven't reached it myself. I'm still in the process of perfecting this stage, so I'm not qualified to make too many comments. The above is my summary of my own experience in foreign exchange trading. I feel that there are several processes that novices can refer to for advanced. They are not suitable for everyone and are for reference only. Here are some suggestions for newcomers: 1. Don't be greedy. Don't learn too many indicators. After all, you have to dilute these indicators later. 2. Instead of spending a lot of time reading books that are recommended by others and you have finished reading them, it is better to spend time on practice and research. Those books can only be gained after you have reached a certain level and read them. As for those books about technical analysis, it is a waste of time. 3. Believe me, you will definitely lose money in the future, so remember, you must take a light position and keep bullets for yourself before you can make stable profits. Don't wait until you feel that you can make a stable profit but you have no money. As for light positions, here is a standard. For newcomers, the account of 10,000 US dollars should not exceed 0.1 lot, and all accounts below 1,000 US dollars should use 0.01 lot. In the later stage, if you have a certain level, you need to increase your position, another thing to say. This process is a process of letting yourself learn, not a process of making money, so remember! 4. Those half a year is a threshold. If you can’t pass it, just stay away from this market completely. Not everyone is suitable. Don’t force it when you can’t do it. 5. If you have passed the threshold of half a year, congratulations, remember one sentence at this time: trading is not the whole of life, learn to return to life. Finally, I wish all newcomers and friends who have entered or plan to enter this industry can survive in this market longer .

"GBP/AUD Exchange Rate: Recent Recovery and Future Prospects"

warren

The GBP/AUD exchange rate is showing promise in the short term, recovering from oversold conditions that emerged in September. Traders are closely monitoring key support and resistance levels as well as upcoming economic events that could impact the currency pair. Key Support and Resistance Levels A significant support level at 1.8850 is expected to provide substantial support in the event of a British Pound (GBP) selloff. On the upside, resistance is relatively limited until around 1.95, which may become relevant if the Pound exhibits strong performance. Australian Developments In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia's Assistant Governor, Jones, is scheduled to deliver a speech. This speech could offer insights into the possibility of a future rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Signs of tightening monetary policy in response to China's improved economic data and strong domestic activity have the potential to boost Australian bond yields and support the Australian Dollar (AUD). Additionally, the release of the minutes from the RBA's recent policy decision will provide further clues about the central bank's stance on interest rates. Australian Employment Report One of the week's highlights for the Australian Dollar is the employment report, which is anticipated to show a gain of 20,000 jobs. A positive employment report can strengthen expectations of an RBA rate hike and provide support to the AUD. Chinese Economic Data Australia's economic performance is closely tied to China, and Chinese economic data has a significant impact on the Australian Dollar. Chinese GDP figures for the third quarter are highly anticipated, with expectations of revealing a year-on-year growth rate of 4.4%. An uptick in Chinese economic activity could benefit the AUD. UK Data Releases The upcoming week is eventful for the UK, with a slew of data releases on the calendar. These releases include labor market statistics, inflation figures, and retail sales data. Market Reaction to UK Data The market's response to UK data will be closely monitored, as earnings and changes in employment levels can indicate the direction of UK inflation trends. Key data to watch includes Average Weekly Earnings and the unemployment rate. Inflation Outlook Inflation figures for September are a significant focus, with expectations of a year-on-year decline in headline inflation. However, the month-on-month reading is anticipated to have risen due to increasing fuel prices. Soft inflation data in September noticeably affected the Pound, and a similar undershoot in October could potentially place pressure on GBP/USD. Consumer Confidence and Retail Sales The end of the week will see the release of consumer confidence figures and retail sales data in the UK. While these data points are of interest, their impact is expected to be limited, given the significance of earlier wage and inflation data releases. Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, the GBP/AUD pair is currently displaying a bearish trend on higher timeframes. The recent pullback appears to have completed, reaching a confluence zone of previous support that may now act as resistance. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level adds to the significance of this area. The price is currently moving within an ascending wedge pattern, which suggests a potential downward breakout. Traders are closely monitoring this zone for a suitable risk-to-reward ratio for a short position. In conclusion, the GBP/AUD exchange rate is poised for a positive short-term outlook, but it remains subject to developments in Australia, China, and the UK. Technical analysis also points to a possible trend reversal. As traders navigate these factors, the currency pair's direction in the coming days will likely be influenced by a combination of economic data and market sentiment.

Warren's Trading Titans

How to Trade the "Double Top" Chart Pattern Like a Pro

汇汇你

There are some trading patterns in the market that are widely used by traders all over the world and double top trading is one of them. This is the easiest and clearest way to identify potential sell trades in a trade. Most novices still have a blind spot for it. Let's talk about the double top trading mode in detail below. // identify the double top pattern A double top is a bearish reversal pattern that usually forms at the end of a bullish trend. Two consecutive rounded tops at about the same height complete the pattern. The first round top generally forms in an obvious resistance area. ①First high ②Second high ③Neckline What is currently happening is that buyers are trying to push the price above the resistance level at ①, but are unable to do so because sellers have entered the market. The buyers made a second attempt, but the buyers were unable to break through the new high shown at ② as the sellers again entered the market massively and overwhelmed the buyers. When it became clear that buyers were unable to push the price above the resistance level, the price reversed to a downtrend as more sellers entered the market. Note: Price must break the neckline of the pattern for it to be a valid double top pattern. Once you identify the pattern on the price chart, you can look for potential selling opportunities. // The psychology behind the double top pattern A double top pattern occurs at a major resistance area. This pattern suggests that when price action reaches an obvious resistance zone, buyers are afraid to buy because of the resistance. On the other hand, sellers will choose to sell in the same resistance area. After breaking out of the first high, the price action falls back to an important support area (the neckline), at which point the buyer trading psychology tends to strengthen buying to reach new higher prices. But when price action reaches the resistance area again, buyers fail to break new highs, sellers gain control, and price action begins to move in the opposite direction, forming a double top pattern. // Double top pattern – trading strategy There are two ways to trade the "Double Top" chart pattern. To make sure the strategies we share are the ones that work, we backtest them again and again. 1. Double top pattern + bearish pattern Traders in the market widely use a variety of bearish patterns, the most commonly used bearish patterns include engulfing pattern, evening doji, shooting star, three crows, etc. This strategy is to identify the bearish formation of the second peak. If you find any of these, you can go short. Make sure to place your stop loss above the resistance line. recognition pattern In the EUR/JPY chart below, the formation of a double top pattern can be clearly seen. As shown in the chart below, the price action showed a bearish engulfing candle pattern immediately after the second top. This shows that the sellers have fully absorbed the buyers and it is time to go short. Stop loss and take profit placement Entering the market at the close of a bearish engulfing candle with a stop above the resistance line is the most logical way to maximize profits, once this is spotted, the price action has little chance of going up. As mentioned earlier, the first take profit is at the neckline of the double top and the second is at the double of the entire pattern. It should be noted here that please determine the position of the target price according to your trading style, and you can also close the position anytime and anywhere. 2. Double top pattern + RSI In this strategy, pair the Double Top pattern with the RSI indicator to identify accurate shorting signals. RSI stands for Relative Strength Index and it is a momentum indicator developed by J. Welles Wilder Jr. in 1978. When the indicator reaches the 70 level, it indicates that the market is overbought and when the indicator reaches the 30 level, the market is oversold. The strategy is simple, when the price action hits the second peak and starts to oscillate, look to see if the RSI is in an overbought market condition. If yes, it can be considered a potential sell signal. recognition pattern We have identified a double top chart pattern in the GBP/CHF currency pair below. In the image below, we can see that the first and second peaks of the pattern are very strong. When the price action approaches the second peak, the price immediately falls and the RSI is in the overbought area, so it is safe to short. Stop Loss and Take Profit When the conditions are met, you can go short, set the stop loss above the entry , and take profit in the support area of the higher time frame. Overall, this is a trade above 100 pips, and if there is not enough room in the support area, it can be closed when the RSI reaches the oversold area. in conclusion Trading up and down patterns is an easy way to make money. Some models have greater hidden risks, but the double top does not. It offers some of the best risk reward entries, and this pattern works on all trading time frames. Finally, I would like to remind all traders to make sure that they truly understand the logic behind the model before trading , so as to avoid unnecessary losses. Good luck with the transaction!

Forex Knowledge Encyclopedia

MM platform ≠ black platform, STP platform ≠ good platform

胖松说汇1

In the foreign exchange market, it is often heard that a platform has obtained an MM license or an STP license, and in most people's minds, the platform with an MM license basically maintains the idea of "black platform". So do you really understand the difference between these two platforms? First of all, let's briefly talk about their definitions (not official definitions, just for easy understanding): STP platform: straight-through platform, which is to send your order directly to the bank and let the bank process your order. We commonly call it "sell the market". MM platform: a market maker platform, which will process investors' orders before deciding whether to sell them to the bank. It may also be for this reason that there is an alias for the "VAM" platform. So the STP platform is good, but the MM platform is not good? the answer is negative. Let's think about a problem first. The foreign exchange market itself is a "zero-sum game". That is to say, if you transfer money, someone will lose money, and if you lose money, someone will make money. So what you think of as "throwing the market" platform (stp platform) is just throwing it to a higher-level "opponent". From the above picture, we can clearly see that for our investors (retail investors, identified as customers A/B/C/D in the above picture), we belong to the bottom layer, and our retail investors can be mutual As opponents, retail investors and platforms are opponents, platforms are also opponents, platforms are opponents of general small investment banks (LP), and these LPs are also opponents. LPs and top investment banks (market maker banks) , such as Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Citibank, etc.) are also rivals, and these top investment banks will also be rivals. Let’s spread the knowledge here. There is also a market among top investment banks. Only among them can communicate with each other, and ordinary retail investors are definitely out of reach, so I won’t talk about it any more. Haha, have you been dizzy by me? In fact, it is very easy to understand sentence by sentence with pictures. If you can understand this picture, then continue to look down. As mentioned just now, the orders on the stp platform are actually thrown to a higher-level "opponent", and there is almost no processing in the middle, so from the above picture, the orders on the stp platform are thrown to the LP. Let LP be your opponent. As for the MM platform, it will decide whether to allow customers to trade against each other based on the orders at the same time. drop), or between the platform itself and the customer as a counterparty, or throw the customer's order to a higher-level market. At this point, some people may say that there are very few people who can make money in this market itself, so wouldn't it be good for the platform to directly "gamble" with retail investors? This sentence sounds right, but for the risk control of a platform, such a risk control is the same as we do not set a "stop loss" in the transaction, it is actually a process of waiting for the "explosion". To give an example, when a large number of orders of the same direction and the same variety appear on a platform, if the platform takes all of them, then the direction of these orders is opposite to the market, and the platform will indeed make a lot of money, but if the direction is correct, then The platform will suffer huge losses, and even lead to direct bankruptcy. Another point is that in this market, the larger the platform, the more the number of bets with customers will be, and the smaller the platform, the smaller it will be. It is simply because the platform is small. less money. Going back to what we mentioned at the beginning, the foreign exchange market is a "zero-sum game", so no matter where your order is eventually "thrown", there is actually no difference in essence, because this market is like this, The higher-level opponents are the lower-level opponents. Even if your order is directly thrown to the banks of the top market makers, it is just that you are making opponents with these banks. In fact, you don’t need to pay too much attention to whether a platform is an STP license or an mm license, because most of the platforms that can be seen in the market now have positions A and B. Position A is for throwing to the market, and position B is for gambling of. Instead of being obsessed with the license issue of a platform, we should look at whether the platform is formally supervised, whether it has a high reputation, what is the reputation, what is the trading environment, what is the transaction cost and other practical issues. Let’s share it here first today. If there are Huiyou who don’t know how to choose a platform, you can leave a message below, and I will write another article dedicated to teaching you how to choose a platform. If this article is useful to you, please don’t be stingy with your praise, move your fingers, give me a “five-star praise”, and thank you everyone!

Foreign exchange trading thinking

Which is better, trading left or right?

jiaoyi golden eagle

We often hear some veteran traders say that trading on the right side is safer and more reliable; but we also hear others say that trading on the left side is actually more profitable and more suitable for intervention. So what is going on? How do we choose? To make a wise choice, we must first figure out what is left-hand trading and what is right-hand trading? First of all, we have to talk about the trend, because the left and right trading is inseparable from the trend, and it is also aimed at the trend. For trend trading, we all understand that trading with the trend is necessary, because trading with the trend is safer and has a higher success rate; however, we also often see that when a wave of trends ends and it is fully confirmed that the trend has reversed, often A large part of the profit margin is lost. Therefore, many traders will enter the market and do reverse transactions when they have certain basis and can be roughly judged to be top-bottom. This is what we often call left-hand trading. Compared with the original trend, the transaction on the left is a contrarian transaction, but it chooses the starting point of the new trend. If the judgment is correct, the profit will be more substantial. However, anyone with a discerning eye also understands that although the left side of the transaction can be very profitable if the judgment is correct, but before the trend is destroyed, no one can be sure whether it is the top or the bottom at the moment. Analysts think it is a taboo for trend trading. Therefore, many experienced traders would rather give up profit margins and wait until the trend reversal is confirmed before entering the market. This is what we often call right-hand trading. Compared with the original trend, trading on the right side belongs to trend-following trading. It is safer and more reliable to enter the market only after the original trend is destroyed and a new reverse trend is established. However, for distinguishing between left and right transactions, many traders will use the top and bottom of historical charts to distinguish left and right transactions. In fact, this is unreasonable, because it is used to distinguish after the fact. But in every moment, it is almost impossible to determine the top and bottom with certainty. Therefore, it is more reasonable to judge the left and right transactions by the standard of trend measurement. As shown in the figure above, many traders will enter the market on the left side of the "top" to short (red arrow), which is judged as trading on the left side, and enter the market on the right side of the "top" to short, and it is judged to be trading on the right side. This is actually wrong. Reasonable, because at the moment of the "top", no one can be sure that this is a top, so how to judge whether it is the left side or the right side? However, if the trend line is used as a tool to measure the trend, as long as the trend line is broken, the trend can be confirmed to be broken. Therefore, entering the market to the left of the trend line (yellow arrow) means trading on the left side, while entering the market to the right of the trend line is short , is the transaction on the right. In this way, even at any moment, you can judge whether you are trading on the left or right. In the figure above, shorting before "breaking the trend" means trading on the left side; selling short after "breaking the trend" means trading on the right side. Then, there is another point to note that the left and right transactions we are talking about are all relative to the fixed cycle, because the judgment of the trend is different in different cycles, and sometimes the big cycle rises and the small cycle If the cycle is not fixed, it will be traded on the left side relative to the large cycle, but on the right side relative to the small cycle, or vice versa. Therefore, different cycle frames have different judgments on left and right transactions. Now that I understand this, is it better to trade on the left side or the right side? First of all, we need to understand that the different technical systems of each trader will lead to different definitions of trends, which in turn will lead to different measurement standards for each trader's left and right trades. In other words, different technical systems have different judgments on left and right transactions. As shown in the figure below, for the trendline trading system (yellow arrow) and the moving average trading system (black arrow), there are obvious differences in the judgment of the left and right positions. Although trading on the left also needs to be done in combination with the trend, in fact, the technical system of the left trading is a combination of anti-trend trading and trend trading. That is to say, the left side of the transaction focuses on predicting the top and bottom, and enters the market at the initial stage of the formation of the new trend. Its advantage is that if the judgment is correct, the profit margin is large; its disadvantage is that it has to bear greater risks than the right transaction. Unlike the left side trading, the right side trading is more focused on trend tracking, does not predict the top and bottom, as long as the trend is not broken, do not do reverse trading, until it is confirmed that the old trend is broken and a new trend is established, enter field transactions. Its advantage is that the confirmation of trend reversal is higher and entry is safer; its disadvantage is that a considerable part of the profit margin needs to be discarded. From this, we can see that the left-hand transaction and the right-hand transaction have their own advantages and disadvantages. There is no absolute good or absolute bad. It mainly depends on your own choice. So how do we make wise choices? In fact, it is best for everyone to choose according to their own personality and technical system and other actual conditions. What suits you may not necessarily suit others, and what suits others may not necessarily suit you. Therefore, it is best to choose the one that suits you. of. The following is a summary of some of my personal experience, you can refer to it. We all know that trends are strong and weak, so we can combine this and adopt different strategies for different trends: 1. In a weak trend , if there is a top-bottom pattern or a reversal K-line pattern, or other reversal basis, you can enter the market on the left side; 2. In a strong trend , it is necessary to predict the top and bottom as little as possible, that is, to do less left-hand transactions, because in a strong trend, the top and bottom patterns or reversal K-line patterns, or other reversal basis, are often It is a trap, and will be swallowed by the inertia of the trend, so try to enter the market on the right side; 3. In the late stage of a strong trend , if there is a top-bottom pattern or a reversal K-line pattern, or other reversal basis, at this time you can properly predict the top-bottom and choose the left side to enter the market, but do not take too large a position to prevent this Level trends expand into larger level trends and move on. In short, it is to adopt different strategies according to the inertia of different trends . If the trend is strong, the inertia will be strong, and we should try to do right-hand trading; if the trend is weak, the inertia will be weak, so we can properly do some left-hand trading, so that we can More profits can be made more safely. In fact, for different trading cycles, each transaction may be either a left-side transaction or a right-side transaction; Not an absolute right side trader, just a biased one. Therefore, in different market environments, it is wise to adopt different strategies, and I hope you can make wise choices to continuously improve your trading performance!

Jiaoyi Golden Eagle Exchange Circle

Is Forex Signals Reliable?

fong zi cheng

The effectiveness of forex signals depends on various factors, and it's essential to approach them with a discerning mindset. Here are some considerations: 1 )Quality of the Signal Provider: -Reliable signals often come from experienced and knowledgeable traders or reputable signal providers. -Research and verify the track record of the signal provider. Transparency about past performance, success rates, and the methodology used is crucial. 2) Market Conditions: -Forex markets can be unpredictable, and the success of signals may vary based on market conditions. -Signals that work well in trending markets might not be as effective during ranging or volatile conditions. 3) Risk Management: -Effective use of signals involves not only accurate predictions but also prudent risk management. -Understanding the risk associated with each trade, setting stop-loss orders, and managing leverage are crucial aspects of successful trading. 4) Timing and Execution: -The speed of execution is vital in forex trading. Even if a signal is accurate, delays in execution can impact profitability. -Traders need to be disciplined in following the signals promptly. 5) Learning and Independence: -Relying solely on signals without understanding the underlying market dynamics can be risky. Traders are encouraged to use signals as a tool for learning and confirmation rather than as the sole basis for their decisions. 6) Changing Market Conditions: -Forex markets evolve, and strategies that worked in the past might not be as effective in the future. -Continuous learning and adaptation to changing market conditions are crucial for long-term success. 7) Scams and Fraud: -Be cautious of signal providers promising unrealistic returns or using aggressive marketing tactics. There are scams in the forex signal industry, and due diligence is essential to avoid falling victim to fraudulent schemes. In summary, while forex signals can be a valuable tool for traders, their effectiveness depends on the factors mentioned above. It's advisable for traders to combine signals with their own analysis, practice good risk management, and stay informed about market conditions. Education and a disciplined approach are key to success in the dynamic and often unpredictable forex market.

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