There are too many people who have lost money, so I plan to take the path of reverse copying. But looking around, why do so few people make money through reverse copying? In theory it's fine, what's the problem?

Let's first analyze the principle of the success of reverse copying. As we all know, financial trading is one of the most difficult professions in the world. 90% of traders lose money, and only 10% make money. The probability of the number of profitable people will be further reduced in a highly leveraged market such as foreign exchange. Based on this fact, reverse copying came into being. Using the principle that most people lose money, reverse operations, hoping to achieve profits. At first glance, there seems to be no problem with the logic theory, but in fact it is very difficult to operate.

Whether it is forward copying or reverse copying, success is inseparable from a perfect data source. Positive copying requires the account to be stable and profitable, otherwise it will fail. The same is true for reverse copying, which requires a stable loss-making account, which is especially important. But let me ask you a trader, who doesn’t want to make profits go up, and accounts with stable losses generally choose noobs who have just entered the market. It is the difficulty in documentary. The data source is the most important. ​

First, the theoretical basis of reverse copying is that the transactions of the traders who are copied are all selected as long-term loss-making traders. There are many reasons for long-term loss-making traders, but it does not rule out that traders are profitable. There will be irrational profit explosions, so the risk of reverse copying orders will be greatly increased once, which is equivalent to carrying orders once, which will trigger the trend of liquidation.

Second, the capital demand for reverse copying is very high. Since the number of people who choose reverse copying has a certain amount, a certain amount of funds is required as a backup fund in the copying. Many reverse copies fail due to insufficient funds, and cannot trade with the copied one. in and out at the same time.

Third, reverse copying is essentially a bet against some traders. Due to some slippage positions in technology and transactions in VAM, the transaction price and the trader being copied cannot be synchronized. In some extreme market conditions, copying fails or cannot be executed immediately, and the price difference of reverse copying is large, which leads to poor copying effect.

Reverse copying is an operation method based on theory, not necessarily a scam, but the effect of reverse copying in the current market is not ideal. If you want to make stable profits in the foreign exchange market, you need to continuously improve your trading capabilities and improve your trading system.

There are no shortcuts in the trading road. It is unrealistic to always think about relying on external forces to achieve stable profits. The author believes that it is better to really spend some time researching the market than spending time on unorthodox profit methods. It is the kingly way to make stable profits yourself.

In recent years, reverse copying has become very popular. As the name suggests, reverse copying means trading in the opposite direction with the signal source. The signal source loses money and investors make money. However, this seemingly simple way of making money actually has many ways to make money. There are very few people who make stable profits from copying orders. The reason for this is to listen to Huiying slowly.

Point difference: Make the profit and loss sides become asymmetrical

The point difference is the first influencing factor of the reverse copy order in the foreign exchange market. The reason why the reverse copy order can be profitable in theory is that it must be based on the symmetry of profit and loss, and the addition of the point difference affects the symmetry of profit and loss.

Let's use practical examples to explain this phenomenon. For example, there are two accounts A and B, and account B is used to carry out reverse copying of account A, and the spread is 2 points. Floating loss of 2 points The actual floating loss is 20 US dollars, plus the spread of 20 US dollars, a total loss of 40 US dollars. At this time, account B has a profit of 2 points, but the closing position deduction of the spread is actually just neither profit nor loss. That is to say, when account A loses 2 points, account B that reverses the order will not make money, because the spread must be deducted, and only when account A loses more than 2 points, account B may make a profit.

Therefore, some accounts are short-term brushing type. Every time there is a fluctuation of one or two points, the position will be closed at a loss. Then account B will lose money steadily no matter how you follow it! Any loss-making account whose closing point is less than the spread, no matter whether you follow forward or reverse, it will be a loss.

This is one of the important reasons why there are many loss-making accounts on the market, and you still lose money in turn.

Does that mean that every time account A loses more than the point difference, account B will be able to make a stable profit? maybe. Huiying proposes a new concept here: the symmetry of reverse copying, which is mainly used to measure the situation of reverse copying. It doesn't matter if you haven't heard of it, because this is a term I created for everyone to understand.

If the point difference is 2 points, account A loses 3 points on average each time, and the actual loss is 5 points, while account B makes a profit of 3 points, deducting the spread of 2 points, the actual profit is 1 point, that is to say, the same bet is 1 point. If account A loses $50, account B only earns $10, symmetry=account B’s profit amount/account A’s loss amount=20%, that is to say, account B only has 20% of the effect of account A, and the stability is very poor . So when you see a loss in account A, the effect of your actual reverse copy order will be greatly reduced, and you may even lose money.

Cracking method: choose an account with high symmetry

Is there a workaround for this bug? Of course there are. Since asymmetry affects the effect of reverse copying, we need to choose accounts with high symmetry. The specific performance is that the larger the profit and loss points each time, the better.

The more the closing point of account A is higher than the spread, the higher the symmetry. With the point difference as 2 points, Huiying has made a table for everyone in the case of placing 1 lot at the same time:

From the above table, we can see that the greater the profit and loss points of account A each time, the higher the symmetry, which is more conducive to the reverse copying of account B. So when I want to reverse copy, I can't choose an account that only earns a few points each time, but should choose an account that earns dozens of points each time.

Huiying recommends choosing an account with a symmetry higher than 80%, and making a profit of more than 20 points each time, so that the impact of the spread on the reverse copy order is relatively small.

Object: Let data and rationality achieve stable profitability

In reverse copying, in the final analysis, we still need to find a signal source with stable losses. Is it easy to find a signal source with stable losses? Losses are everywhere, and it is rare to find stable losses. I divide the sources of stable loss signals into two categories:

retail group

The stability of an individual is not high, but the stability of a group will be greatly improved. If you want to reverse copy, the best way is to use big data to disperse the risk. If you are a platform owner, would you rather bet against a retail investor worth $1 million, or bet against 1,000 retail investors worth $1,000? Anyone who has studied probability should know that betting against one person is very risky. What if this retail investor is a master? But if you gamble with 1,000 retail investors, since the retail investors have a high probability of losing money, the combination of these 1,000 individuals is actually a good source of stable loss signals.

As long as the sample size is large enough and the funds are sufficient, this model does not consider swiping signals, and can also make stable profits. This is why many people like to open black platforms for gambling, because the money is not only fast, but also stable! Of course, if you have a risk mechanism and can identify and eliminate those with strong profitability in a timely manner, the effect will definitely be better.

This method is generally suitable for platforms and some companies. Here we do not discuss the morality of betting against each other, mainly to tell everyone that if you want to reverse copy, the group is more stable.

Individuals with stable losses

Last year, a friend told me that there was a trader in their company whose losses were particularly stable. He opened one account and broke one pair, and opened two accounts and broke one pair. He wanted to be his reverse copy. I said that reverse copying is not that simple, you can't follow him just because he loses money, this is very risky... But when people see opportunities to make money, they often don't listen to bad advice.

A month later, this friend called me: I had already earned hundreds of thousands of dollars from that trader in reverse, but this idiot forgot to close a non-agricultural position, and even took a long-term position of more than 300 points, and closed my account. Directly broke the position! I really want to slap him...

This phone call made me dumbfounded, I could only comfort him, at least he remembered what I said before if he could call. In fact, in my opinion, this is an inevitable event. Such an unprofessional method is not qualified to talk about luck. It is only after experiencing it that you can remember it. After all, it is useless to rely on many things.

So what kind of loser can reverse the order?

1 has a trading system

Yes, you read that right, people who are looking for losses must also have a trading system, because purely subjective trading that does not follow routines, the stability is too poor, and you will lose a lot and make a lot of money. Follow up with a heart attack.

It is best to have a simple trading system, which is the kind of stable loss when executed. The key is that this person has to keep trading. The kind of person who feels good about himself and doesn’t like to learn is the best. Don’t let him He learns new technologies and participates in our dry live broadcast courses, otherwise he will change his method when he goes back. Once he changes his method, he will not have the value of reverse copying in a short time.

If you can use a method to lose money stably, that is also a kind of ability. As long as you persist and find good cooperation opportunities, you can also realize your own value.

2 with stop loss and take profit

A trader without a stop loss or stop profit, although he loses more when he loses, or even directly liquidates his position, but when he makes a lot of money, what we want is not to get rich overnight, but to make a stable profit, so of course the best state is to let He loses slowly, rhythmically and predictably.

As long as he has a stop loss and take profit, and the capital curve from the loss is relatively beautiful, and what I mentioned above is not the type of trading, then you can pay attention to it. This kind of player is a good seed for the reverse copying signal source.

3 The more losses the better

Generally speaking, the number of transactions must exceed at least 100 times to have statistical value. Of course, the more times the better, the higher the stability. The trading time is at least 2 months, so that you can basically go through a foreign exchange market cycle, because the non-agricultural and interest rate decisions in the foreign exchange market are issued once a month, so 2 months can just complete a round.

The more historical data of losses, the more valuable the research is. Although it is very painful for traders who lose money, it is undoubtedly a great benefit for investors who follow reverse orders.

There are not many high-quality signal sources with real stable losses

Seeing this, everyone should have a feeling that making a reverse copy order is so complicated, and there are so many ways to do it. No wonder the copy order on the Internet usually looks good, but it loses money once it follows.

In actual trading, there are objective situations such as slippage and missed orders, which will also affect the final effect to varying degrees, but it is a systematic risk, which is difficult for us to completely avoid, and we can only accept it. After all, the black swan is coming, and the fight is no longer about technology, but about luck. Otherwise, the Swiss franc incident would not have caused many platform companies to go bankrupt overnight.

Summarize

If you want to reverse copy, if you have a large number of retail signal sources, you can choose the best and directly reverse copy.

If you are following an individual or EA in the reverse direction, you need to meet the following points of Huiying:

1 The symmetry should be high, and you can’t play with brushing orders

2. Have a simple trading system or order making rules

3 with stop loss and take profit

4 The time and number of transactions have statistical value.

In the end, I would like to say that in this industry, experts make money for novices, and professionals make money for amateurs. Before you make any decision, try to be fully prepared, or if you don't make a move, it will be a lore!

In recent years, reverse copying has become very popular. As the name suggests, reverse copying means trading in the opposite direction with the signal source. The signal source loses money and investors make money. However, this seemingly simple way of making money actually has many ways to make money. There are very few people who make stable profits from copying orders. The reason for this is to listen to me slowly.

Point difference: Make the profit and loss sides become asymmetrical

The point difference is the first influencing factor of foreign exchange reverse copying. The reason why reverse copying can be profitable in theory is that it must be based on the symmetry of profit and loss, and the addition of point difference affects the symmetry of profit and loss.

Let's use practical examples to explain this phenomenon. For example, there are two accounts A and B, and account B is used to carry out reverse copying of account A, and the spread is 2 points. Floating loss of 2 points The actual floating loss is 20 US dollars, plus the spread of 20 US dollars, a total loss of 40 US dollars. At this time, account B has a profit of 2 points, but the closing position deduction of the spread is actually just neither profit nor loss. That is to say, when account A loses 2 points, account B that reverses the order will not make money, because the spread must be deducted, and only when account A loses more than 2 points, account B may make a profit.

Therefore, some accounts are short-term brushing type. Every time there is a fluctuation of one or two points, the position will be closed at a loss. Then account B will lose money steadily no matter how you follow it! Any loss-making account whose closing point is less than the spread, no matter whether you follow forward or reverse, it will be a loss.

This is one of the important reasons why there are many loss-making accounts on the market, and you still lose money in turn.

Does that mean that every time account A loses more than the point difference, account B will be able to make a stable profit? maybe. A new concept is proposed here: the symmetry of reverse copying, which is mainly used to measure the situation of reverse copying. It doesn't matter if you haven't heard of it, because this is a term I created for everyone to understand.

If the point difference is 2 points, account A loses 3 points on average each time, and the actual loss is 5 points, while account B makes a profit of 3 points, deducting the spread of 2 points, the actual profit is 1 point, that is to say, the same bet is 1 point. If account A loses $50, account B only earns $10, symmetry=account B’s profit amount/account A’s loss amount=20%, that is to say, account B only has 20% of the effect of account A, and the stability is very poor . So when you see a loss in account A, the effect of your actual reverse copy order will be greatly reduced, and you may even lose money.

Cracking method: choose an account with high symmetry

Is there a workaround for this bug? Of course there are. Since asymmetry affects the effect of reverse copying, we need to choose accounts with high symmetry. The specific performance is that the larger the profit and loss points each time, the better.

​

Object: Let data and rationality achieve stable profitability

In reverse copying, in the final analysis, we still need to find a signal source with stable losses. Is it easy to find a signal source with stable losses? Losses are everywhere, and it is rare to find stable losses. I divide the sources of stable loss signals into two categories:

retail group

The stability of an individual is not high, but the stability of a group will be greatly improved. If you want to reverse copy, the best way is to use big data to disperse the risk. If you are a platform owner, would you rather bet against a retail investor worth $1 million, or bet against 1,000 retail investors worth $1,000? Anyone who has studied probability should know that betting against one person is very risky. What if this retail investor is a master? But if you gamble with 1,000 retail investors, since the retail investors have a high probability of losing money, the combination of these 1,000 individuals is actually a good source of stable loss signals.

As long as the sample size is large enough and the funds are sufficient, this model does not consider swiping signals, and can also make stable profits. This is why many people like to open black platforms for gambling, because the money is not only fast, but also stable! Of course, if you have a risk mechanism and can identify and eliminate those with strong profitability in a timely manner, the effect will definitely be better.

This method is generally suitable for platforms and some companies. Here we do not discuss the morality of betting against each other, mainly to tell everyone that if you want to reverse copy, the group is more stable.

Individuals with stable losses

Last year, a friend told me that there was a trader in their company whose losses were particularly stable. He opened one account and broke one pair, and opened two accounts and broke one pair. He wanted to be his reverse copy. I said that reverse copying is not that simple, you can't follow him just because he loses money, this is very risky... But when people see opportunities to make money, they often don't listen to bad advice.

A month later, this friend called me: I had already earned hundreds of thousands of dollars from that trader in reverse, but this idiot forgot to close a non-agricultural position, and even took a long-term position of more than 300 points, and closed my account. Directly broke the position! I really want to slap him...

This phone call made me dumbfounded, I could only comfort him, at least he remembered what I said before if he could call. In fact, in my opinion, this is an inevitable event. Such an unprofessional method is not qualified to talk about luck. It is only after experiencing it that you can remember it. After all, it is useless to rely on many things.

So what kind of loser can reverse the order?

1 has a trading system

Yes, you read that right, people who are looking for losses must also have a trading system, because purely subjective trading that does not follow routines, the stability is too poor, and you will lose a lot and make a lot of money. Follow up with a heart attack.

It is best to have a simple trading system, which is the kind of stable loss when executed. The key is that this person has to keep trading. The kind of person who feels good about himself and doesn’t like to learn is the best. Don’t let him He learns new technologies and participates in our dry live broadcast courses, otherwise he will change his method when he goes back. Once he changes his method, he will not have the value of reverse copying in a short time.

If you can use a method to lose money stably, that is also a kind of ability. As long as you persist and find good cooperation opportunities, you can also realize your own value.

2 with stop loss and take profit

A trader without a stop loss or stop profit, although he loses more when he loses, or even directly liquidates his position, but when he makes a lot of money, what we want is not to get rich overnight, but to make a stable profit, so of course the best state is to let He loses slowly, rhythmically and predictably.

As long as he has a stop loss and take profit, and the capital curve from the loss is relatively beautiful, and what I mentioned above is not the type of trading, then you can pay attention to it. This kind of player is a good seed for the reverse copying signal source.

3 The more losses the better

Generally speaking, the number of transactions must exceed at least 100 times to have statistical value. Of course, the more times the better, the higher the stability. The transaction time is at least 2 months, so that you can basically go through a foreign exchange cycle, because the non-agricultural and interest rate resolutions in foreign exchange are issued once a month, so 2 months can just complete a round.

The more historical data of losses, the more valuable the research is. Although it is very painful for traders who lose money, it is undoubtedly a great benefit for investors who follow reverse orders.

There are not many high-quality signal sources with real stable losses

Seeing this, everyone should have a feeling that making a reverse copy order is so complicated, and there are so many ways to do it. No wonder the copy order on the Internet usually looks good, but it loses money once it follows.

In actual trading, there are objective situations such as slippage and missed orders, which will also affect the final effect to varying degrees, but it is a systematic risk, which is difficult for us to completely avoid, and we can only accept it. After all, the black swan is coming, and the fight is no longer about technology, but about luck. Otherwise, the Swiss franc incident would not have caused many platform companies to go bankrupt overnight.

Reverse copying "losers" wants to make money, requiring "losers" is also a master

First of all, let’s discuss several basic prerequisites for the reverse documentary “losers” to make money:

1. One of the prerequisites for reverse copying "losers" to make money is that "losers must continue to lose money of equal magnitude and proportion within a short period of time", that is, the loss curve must be smooth.

2. The second prerequisite for reverse copying "losers" to make money is that "losers' positions are equal each time, and there should be no sudden increase or decrease in positions.

In fact, even if the number of sample accounts of "losers" is large enough, it is still difficult to achieve or approach the above two basic prerequisites.

3. After the above two conditions are fulfilled, there must be no leverage trading, otherwise, even if the reverse order is followed correctly, it will still not make money. Because the application of leveraged trading will cause small fluctuations to be magnified, resulting in psychological amplification, the behavior of stopping loss and taking profit in advance, or being required to increase funds or force liquidation when the margin is insufficient (at this time, it seems to have shaken the principle of position equivalence).

4. After the above three conditions are fulfilled, there must be no deep V structure or a large fluctuation inverted V structure, which is tantamount to requiring the market not to make a huge unilateral trend. In fact, it is difficult for the market to get out of the unilateral structure of a large cycle , otherwise the market will be wiped out by investors.

For example, the Swiss franc black swan event seven years ago (January 15, 2015) is typical. If a USD/CHF loser opens a long position, he only uses 1/100,000 of the position, and the USD/CHF drops by 10,000 points, his account is not blown up, and the price returns to his position after a few days. The entry point is at the same position, and he makes neither profit nor loss. If you follow the position in reverse, you will neither make a profit nor a loss.

If the position he used is too large, such as one-fifth, the position will be liquidated in the middle. If you follow the order in reverse, you should be out of the game halfway. But not making enough money. So what about next time? There is no next time, which ruins the "continuity".

The account life cycle of "losers" is limited. It is impossible for his account to survive forever, which requires the follower to frequently switch the account being followed. The data at this time actually violates the "principle of continuity".

In short, in order to continue to make money, the "losers" of reverse copying have extremely high requirements on the operation consistency, continuity, curve smoothness and survival time of the "losers". It almost requires that the "losers" are also god-level At the same time, it also requires the market to go out of a smooth rising or falling market without a deep V structure as much as possible. Finally locked in, you will find that the basis of reverse copying, that is, the "loser" itself is not solid, so it is really difficult to achieve considerable profit-making results with reverse copying based on an unreliable foundation.

Are you stupid? Otherwise why ask such a stupid question?

The analysis before the transaction can be understood as a question of judgment.

After the analysis is finished, it is the application problem. There are many links that are prone to errors, and once a link goes wrong, the result will be wrong (loss).

Even if your reverse is correct, it can only be said that your direction is correct. So the question is, if the direction is judged correctly, can it be profitable? Even people who have just traded for a short time can give you the answer to this point.

There are probably not a few people who think like this, because everyone has a dream of getting rich, especially the dream of getting rich without working. The idea is beautiful, but the reality is cruel. I also put the conclusion here first:

It is impossible for the subject to make money in the transaction with such an idea. If you don’t lose money, you are lucky. There is a high probability that you will even lose your underwear.

Many traders ask questions that are not investment questions, but gambling questions. Gambling is very simple, play dice, bet big or small, in most cases, it is either big or small.
If you lose more and win less every time you play, then reverse the operation, and if you want to press big, press small. Or you have a particularly bad luck opposite you, then he bets big and you bet small.
Look, this is the standard gambler mentality, gambler logic.
If you invest with this mentality, you will invest for a lifetime and lose for a lifetime. Don't say you operate in reverse, it's useless if you operate in a 360-degree circle.

Investing is not gambling, not an all-or-nothing deal. For example, if you analyze a certain currency, it is all the way up.

Excuse me, what is his opposite? On the contrary, it breaks all the way down. You just do it in reverse?

Have you ever thought about it, if it fell slightly first, then bottomed out and rebounded to rise sharply?

Or a small rise first, and then a big drop? Or simply consolidate, neither rising nor falling. Even box-shaped shocks, jumping up and down between two points.

Do you think that investment is a fork in the road, either to the left or to the right? If you can't go to the left, you can succeed next time you go to the right?

Investment is a desert, stretching as far as the eye can see, wherever you go.

And this desert is full of poisonous insect traps. But there are only two or three winding ways out. If you are not walking on the right path, no matter how many times you turn your head, how many times you turn, how many times you change directions, it will be a dead end

If you want to make money by reverse copying, it's like a flower in a mirror and a moon in the water. Why can’t you make money with reverse copying, mainly because of the following two problems:

First, it is easy to fall into the endless loop of crooked ways.

Trapped in the endless loop of crooked ways, in fact, it is still the relationship between Taoism and art. Almost all friends who do reverse have been crazy and unconstrained, giving full play to their imaginations and racking their brains to study tricks There are so many "strategies", in fact, this is already a sign of madness.

Practical case: Trader A has always wanted to do reverse, but he doesn’t have a special understanding of reverse, so he went to consult with trader B, who has been around for a year, and often talked until midnight. The communication between the two parties was very detailed and indeed It has reached a certain "depth", but often encounters confusion during the collision process, so trader A came to consult trader C, and he told C the many methods and strategies studied with B. C tries to answer the question.

All in all, A and B have deviated from the essence of reverse, and began to delve into various "theories" that have not been practiced. Because the essence of the reverse is still trading, we are all market participants, and trading is a thing that is said to be reasonable and reasonable, swinging from side to side, sometimes the thoughts on the left suppress the thoughts on the right, and sometimes the thoughts on the right Thoughts will win over thoughts on the left, and the two sides will seesaw each other. In this state, market participants are often unaware of what is happening around them and completely lost themselves.

In the end, after N times of guidance and Q&A, C gave up, because it would drive C crazy, and finally C told friend A: "You want to reverse, and you ask a failed person , then you don’t do it, because people who are already crazy will only pull you to be crazy together. Moreover, the other party has changed seven or eight rules in just one year, and no strategy has gone through a complete cycle. Give up the test and start over. The most tragic thing is that trader A loses a lot in the end, and trader B also loses a lot. Imagine that if B dies and follows to the end, it can be known through simple calculations. Taking trader data as an example, Assuming that the same number of lots is made in the firm offer, the commission for each lot is deducted, and the slippage is deducted (the loss of two points per lot is deducted in a theoretical state), and in the end you will lose or make a profit in the firm offer.”

In fact, the reverse is like this. In the end, it is the cognition of the market, the cycle cognition of data, and the cognition of the human nature of traders. All ideas that are separated from these three cognitions are tantamount to flowers in the mirror. , Moon in the water.

Second, it is easy to fall into all kinds of temptations.

Why fall into all kinds of temptations and desperation? Give two examples: 1. In terms of software, everyone likes to use cheap ones, but cheap things are the most expensive things in this business. The stability of futures software is a process of continuous accumulation of technology. In the past two years, with the continuous development of the reverse, many software companies have emerged one after another, but they lack the corresponding technical precipitation and accumulation, and many pitfalls have not been overcome. Many mines have not been stepped on. For example, dropped orders, wrong orders, and wrong orders. Many of our customers now come to us after being educated by others. 2. The marketing companies in the entire reverse industry are not strong enough in technology, and have not passed the test of cycles and time. Although training will be given to the cooperative customers, it is still just talk on paper, and it is very abnormal to give a random management system and transaction rules, all for marketing. Reverse and reverse, what is against is human nature, not rules and regulations. All rules and systems are dead, and the final result is either broken or abandoned. The core of the reverse is active management, which varies from person to person, understands the psychological state and psychological changes of each trader, and makes full use of various means to guide, encourage or suppress stimulation. If you go purely for other people's rules or systems, then you have already lost from the moment you start.

Finally, to sum up: it is really difficult to do one thing, but it is also very simple. Because going from simple to complex is very simple, but going from complex to simple is very complicated. How many temptations are there in our human nature? How many temptations are there outside of us?

In theory is no problem? Whoever told you that can be pulled out and killed.

The theory of trading is not to bet on size, it is black and white. In other words, the reason for losing money is not all because of the direction of the market. It is true that if you do it in the right direction, you will make money, and if you do it in the wrong direction, you will lose money. But more often than not, the money earned becomes a loss, and the loss may also become a profit.

So, how to follow this? Your question reminds me of a previous "speculative" variety called binary options (I don't know if you understand it). It is a black and white product with fixed investment and fixed time, and the maturity is nothing more than profit and loss. If there are people who have stable losses in trading binary options, you can try to do it in reverse.

But have you seen that the China Securities Regulatory Commission defines this product as similar to gambling. In other words, only products like gambling: single-time randomness, fixed profit-loss ratio and other attributes, have the possibility of reverse copying.

However, trading is different. In the process of market development, the benefits and risks are constantly changing. It has no time limit for holding positions, profits may turn into losses, and losses may turn into profits at a specific time. And these are risks that cannot be confirmed by reverse copying. In addition, every time you open a position, because the direction is opposite to the order, the cost you pay is different. Your copy object must have a relatively obvious loss before you can obtain a relative profit. If he closes the position quickly when he breaks even, then you will lose the spread instead.

Not only the cost, but also the position, target position, and operation method may be different. Of course, the result is completely different, and it is also impossible to achieve stable profits.

Therefore, instead of thinking about reverse copying, it is better to study your own trading strategies and systems and follow the right path.

1. Cost. In particular, the existence of the point difference makes the profit and loss sides become asymmetrical, so it is basically difficult to make money in reverse copying.

If A and B have two accounts, and B comes to reverse copy A, the spread is 2. Then when A is long 1 lot, if the floating loss is 2 pips, it is a floating loss of 20 US dollars, plus the spread, the total floating loss is 40 US dollars. At this time, account B will make a profit of 2 points, but due to the existence of the spread, 2-2=0, so if the position is closed at this time, then account B will neither earn nor lose. In other words, only when A loses to a certain extent, B can make a profit. However, many accounts on the market are short-term swiping transactions, and there are many transactions that fluctuate by one or two points. Then no matter how the account B copies the order, it will suffer a steady loss. As long as you close a loss account whose pips are less than the spread, the reverse copy will also lose money.

2. System. Many loss-making traders do not have a system, and they often make orders based on feeling.

Don't think that you can make money by reverse copying in this way, because the feeling is often the most random. Since it is random, no matter what a trader does, the probability of his profit or loss is 50%, and he may make or lose. And once the trader is "luckier", then the reverse copy will undoubtedly lose. Therefore, if a trader has a stable loss system, he can try reverse copying.

3. Take profit and stop loss.

No stop profit and stop loss is very common among retail investors, which is also one of the main reasons for retail investors' losses. If you do not set this block in your reverse copy order, then it can only be the result of a loss. Because there is no stop-profit and stop-loss account, its losses are also random, and in many cases once it makes money, it will also make a lot of money. The curve of this kind of account is not good-looking, and it is not suitable for copying.

4. There are too few signal sources for stable losses.

Just like stable profits, there are few sources of stable losses. In fact, profit and loss are the same. To achieve a stable state, you must have a corresponding trading strategy and system, supplemented by strict risk control. As long as this is done, how can the account lose money stably?

Therefore, don't think about reverse copying, study your own trading system and manage your risk control system carefully, and you will find that it is actually much more difficult to make a profit than a loss.

First of all, the forward copy does not make money, so why do you think that the reverse can make money? Generally speaking, it is believed that there are only two directions, but trading is not black and white. In the same trading period of a certain market, there will often be situations where both long and short positions can make money. It depends on how you operate. What is the point is the entry position, time and exit time point. For example, I made a long order and made 30 points in one hour, but I didn't sell it, and the next hour fell by 50 points and swept the stop loss. Is it wrong or right? This is such a situation. Every transaction has the potential to be like this.

In terms of documentary, it is not just one document, but many documents. Who can really become a reverse indicator, it is not your turn to follow the order, God of Wealth, the market is so unpredictable and you can make mistakes every time, then the probability is the same as all being right, do you think so? I found it very difficult. Even if I made a mistake 10 times, it doesn't mean that I will be wrong the 11th time, so this kind of argument is not true at all. It is very difficult to copy the order itself to enter and exit the same position at the same time. Putting these aside, many people do not follow the order every time. In this way, you may follow the wrong one and miss the right one, or you may not make money. Others made money.

Regarding this problem, to sum up, if you want to adopt this strategy, find a person with a long-term trading record that is a loss for reference, and you need to enter and exit at the same time for a long time, and the direction is opposite. You must follow each transaction and stick to it for a year You can see the result. But the variable is that the transaction record is in the past, and he may have made a profit this year as a whole, but you still lose money in reverse. So going back to the first sentence, the transaction is not black and white, and of course reverse copying will not work.

thank you

Hello, the subject's question is actually correct from an ordinary point of view, the theory is no problem, why still can't make money. This mainly includes the following situations.

One: The instability of the signal source​

Maybe when you are about to get in the car, you will think that the reverse winning rate will be very high, but you have overlooked a problem, that is, first of all, the signal source is unaware of it, and it is still the original operation procedure, so it is okay for him to have a stable loss. There will definitely be stable profits. This kind of loss-making users will have a characteristic in the transaction process that the account curve will fluctuate greatly, which will also erase the confidence of most followers.

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Two: Superposition of transaction costs

Although foreign exchange trading is said to be a zero-sum transaction, there will still be price costs in the real transaction process, and your transaction price may not be as good as the signal source, and the additional loss will be greater. If the signal source It’s okay if you can keep losing money steadily, but you may feel more uncomfortable if the signal source stabilizes. ​

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Three: ​The signal of stable loss is hard to find

People who lose money are usually embarrassed to send their observations to others, because it is too embarrassing. How embarrassing is the transaction that I can’t make a deal, and the author may stop playing after playing with this loss signal, and I have no money to continue playing.

Four: Enlarge the position and follow the signal source

Many users want to earn more when they follow the signal source, and many of them will follow with a larger follower ratio. If the signal source is stable for a while, the following account may be gone. After all, human nature must not be verified by something. Once you can verify you You will find that human nature is so crazy​.

Let’s make it more popular. Those who really want to do stable loss copying will not tell the loss-making users, because if they know that you are using his trading account to reverse the copying, it will affect his transaction and will not continue to trade. If you are so "stable", you may face more risks.

​​​​If you are interested in my answers, please follow my Huihu account. I will regularly answer some industry-related questions every week. I don’t seek the most professional, but the most authentic. ​​​​​​​​​​

The power of life and death of the reverse copy is entrusted to others, which is naturally at the low end of the food chain

The reason why the reverse copying still loses money is that the psychological barrier is difficult to adjust, and the second is that the reverse copyer is naturally at the low end of the food chain in the copying system. The biggest psychological obstacle of reverse copying is that the ups and downs are determined by others, which will cause investors to naturally reject reverse copying. It is difficult to avoid psychological barriers such as lack of trust and strong sense of manipulation in reverse copy trading, and even if the understanding of the copy trading method is constantly adjusted, it still does not touch the essence of the reverse copy loss problem .

1. First of all, you need to ask yourself questions about independent trading. Do you already have a perfect trading system, have you honed a peaceful trading mentality, and have you entered the process of stable profitability? If the answer is yes, then please continue. If the answer is no, in so many years of trying to reflect on trading methods, indicators and mentality have repeatedly become the difficulty of losing money in the body. Will it also appear in other people? In fact, it is not that I am not good, but as an anti-human transaction, most losses are doomed, and reverse copying is no exception.

2. Reverse documentary trading is a trading method, but its reliability needs to be considered. In recent years, the loss rate of the futures and spot markets has reached 93%, and the per capita loss ratio is 45%, so reverse documentary trading came into being. On the surface, reverse copying is a method of giving you a high probability, not handing over your transaction to someone, but no matter how perfect the theoretical model is, it cannot withstand the test of the final real transaction data results. Practice is the only criterion for testing truth. As long as the results are not satisfactory, then there are loopholes in this system or system.

3. Reverse copying does not necessarily exist in a stable profit, let alone a violent mode. Even for some professional teams, through the ratio of funds, VAR risk control and other links, they still cannot make the reverse documentary net worth curve rise smoothly. Under various trade-offs, it is really difficult to achieve stable profits under controllable risk conditions, and it is even more impossible to maintain a stable mentality. Saying that "reverse copying is a trading method that can double quickly in a short period of time," is like a castle in the air.

Instead of reverse copying, it is better to do a good job in forward trading. Because it is more difficult to do reverse trading than forward trading, the reverse trading strategy is more uncertain and unstable, and the reverse copy system cannot escape the system's suspended animation. Difficult to make a qualitative leap. It can be said that reverse copying is a false proposition in theory, so it is difficult for investors who reverse copying to make profits in the end.

Due to the existence of the "28th law", a reverse order thinking has arisen. The following three aspects may help to improve the effect of documentary copying: one is to screen documentary samples; the other is to make a good allocation of funds and follow up several samples with how much money; the third is the mentality of documentary samples.

The problem is that even if you find a dedicated and powerful (maybe real, not necessarily real, maybe blown out) reverse copying team, it is still difficult for ordinary investors to make money. Why? Because of the different profit models, there is a difference in the level of the reverse documentary professional team and the ordinary investors who carry out the copy in the food chain of the entire reverse documentary ecosystem. The profit of the reverse documentary professional team comes from zero cost Funds and their stable system access commissions, and as an ordinary investor, what you have to pay is real money.

For a trading method, there must be a comprehensive understanding.

The subject of the question is theoretically correct, I don't know where your theoretical basis comes from?

"The probability of loss in trading is higher than profit, so the probability of profit in reverse order must be higher than loss." Is this the reason?

Did you do it yourself, or did you do careful planning, data sampling and analysis?

First of all, your understanding of anti-single is not clear.

Anti-single is indeed a trading technique of large Wall Street financial institutions.

Anti-single technology has the following crucial prerequisites:

(1) Huge number of users

(2) Sufficient funds

(3), Efficient and fast data analysis system

(4) Other investment methods to share risks

1. Huge number of users

It goes without saying. Everyone's trading method is different, to ensure a high probability of profit in anti-order, the larger the amount of data, the higher the accuracy of the corresponding data stability. If you just collect dozens of traders in the market and analyze who loses the most money and the number of losses every day, do you think this kind of data can guarantee its stability and effectiveness? First of all, everyone is making progress and self-improvement. Your data needs to be updated every day, and your data sources must also be replaced constantly. Your expenditure on costs is much higher than your profit from reverse orders.

2. Sufficient funds

Anti-single trading is mostly short-term trading, and short-term trading must require more funds to match than long-term strategies. The reason is very simple, if the counter-order tracker you screened has traded multiple times in a certain period of time, then your funds must be able to bear the cost changes, and counter-orders generally do not only focus on one person's transactions, but are often tracked by multiple people . Therefore, some private companies will reserve funds 1.5 times higher than each transaction when doing counter-orders.

3. Efficient and fast data analysis system

When faced with a large number of trading objects, original analysis methods such as Excel spreadsheets or statistical tables are basically invalid. This kind of system can only be created and developed by large institutions. It is too difficult for individuals or small companies to do it.

4. Other investment risk sharing

Any large-scale institution has made a very scientific plan for handling funds, and it is impossible to put all eggs in one basket, including treasury bonds, corporate bonds, funds, hedging, options, etc.

On the other hand, the cost of capital is much lower than the secondary market. These are simply impossible for retail investors. Most people put their hopes in one basket, and finally the bamboo basket fetches water in vain.

Therefore, what the subject of the topic said is "the anti-single is theoretically established", but the fact is that "the anti-single theory is also not valid for retail investors!" Because for retail investors, the basic conditions cannot be satisfied in theory, so the practical results are even worse. Impossible to be established!

It is said that ten thousand is one thousand, and the transaction is done step by step. There is no shortcut to getting rich overnight.

Let me tell you a joke, if the subject is really eager for a high-profit trading method that does not require learning or thinking, then I will tell you to "flip a coin".

Positive - go long

Tails - Short

positive and negative

The probability is 1:1 each

The profit-loss ratio is set at 3:2 each time, which means that there is a three-fifths probability of making a profit and a two-fifths probability of a loss

Subtract the two and the result is one-fifth

Therefore, the final account profit is 1:5.

Although this method is entertaining, it fully reminds traders of a crucial trading method-fund management and position management. Reasonable fund management and position management are easier to increase the probability of making money than trading strategies.

Hope the above content is helpful to you!

Many people say that anti-documentation is a subversion of the existing trading methods. Anti-documentation is a long-term follow-up process, and it is also a process in which big fish eat small fish. It is not necessary to make too much research and judgment on the market by yourself, and everything is handed over to the losers. This is the nature of documentary. We only need to know how to do anti-documentation and how to make a profit.

But this relative contradiction can only be proved by practice. On the surface, the idea of ​​copying is very clear, but in operation, it is a very complicated thing, especially reverse copying.

Yes, the loss-making goods in this market account for the vast majority, but the reasons for their losses are complex and difficult to quantify intuitively. Not to mention how to solve the problem of referring to the source of the loss, even if you have someone who can copy the loss, do you want to do every transaction with him in reverse? Because, from the perspective of probability, the person who loses money will not lose money in every transaction, and you cannot judge whether a certain transaction of his is a loss before copying the order. In this case, how can you guarantee the final profit of the copy order?

From a technical point of view, is your copy trading system stable? Stability directly affects the profit effect of copying orders, which is why some people often fail to grasp the timing of transactions and lose money because of the same copying orders with similar conditions in all aspects.

In addition, the timeliness of trading signals is still the life of documentary trading signals, which is directly related to the value of trading signals. If the follower gives a favorable trading signal in time but the investor fails to react in time and misses the best opportunity to enter the market, then he has to wait for the next trading signal, otherwise the transaction is likely to exit the market with a loss.

For this question, I can only say that there is always a gap between theory and reality.

All traders know that based on the "28th law" of the trading market, according to the trading behavior of the market, carry out operations in the opposite direction to lock in profits. But why do many people still end in failure in the actual operation process?

We can classify the groups of reverse copy orders, one is individual traders, and the other is institutional or corporate traders. In order to meet the question of the subject, today I will focus on why individual traders fail to reverse copy orders, and make an explanation.

1. Sample (signal source)

Regarding the selection of signal sources, everyone may know that among the main body of this market transaction, novice traders are the group most likely to cause losses, none of them. Therefore, the reverse documentary operated by many companies will recruit Xiaobai from the society to operate, and then carry out reverse documentary. But for individual traders, there is no such advantage. Therefore, for individual traders, they can only find signal sources through platforms such as the documentary community. And Xiaobai's signals have a very common feature, that is, in a long-term volatile market, they may double their account, and those who lose money often only need a wave of unilateral market conditions. So, this causes the instability of the signal source.

2. Copy tool

Basically, all documentary operations are carried out with a certain documentary software or a documentary system in the documentary community. Since it is a software tool, due to the different degree of optimization, it may lead to dropped or missed orders in the actual process of copying orders. From this perspective, it will also increase the difficulty of making profits in the process of copying orders.

3. Documentary cost

This should be the most important reason. The cost of copying here includes common spreads and slippage.

The point difference is the first influencing factor of foreign exchange reverse copying. The reason why reverse copying can be profitable in theory is that it must be based on the symmetry of profit and loss, and the addition of point difference affects the symmetry of profit and loss. Therefore, some accounts are short-term brushing type. Every time there is a fluctuation of one or two points, the position will be closed at a loss. Then account B will lose money steadily no matter how you follow it! Any loss-making account whose closing point is less than the spread, no matter whether you follow forward or reverse, it will be a loss.

Not to mention the problem of slippage, which is largely related to the transaction delay of the documentary system, but this is also included in the transaction cost.

4. Amount of funds and allocation of funds

If you want to carry out reverse copying, you must first have at least one-to-one capital or higher than the copying account. Only in this way can it be convenient to adjust the copying method during the unfavorable period of copying. And the allocation of funds is to explain the ratio of the copy order. Many people start to copy the order twice or even higher in the early stage of the copy order. In fact, at this time, there is no way to do the copy order sample. All-round assessment, such a merchandising, will appear very passive once encountering an unsatisfactory situation.

Therefore, for reverse copying, not only a sufficient amount of funds is required, but also an appropriate adjustment to the ratio of copying is required.

In short, reverse copying does not only exist in theory, but because there are many force majeure factors in the process of actual operation, which lead to the final failure of copying. If it can be handled properly, reverse copying can still lead to success.

The first feeling is that it is a bit unreliable. After all, the opposite of loss is not necessarily profit, or it may be neither loss nor profit. However, it cannot be immediately asserted that it is not feasible. We can briefly analyze the risks that this strategy may face when it is implemented.

The risks faced by reverse copying mainly include: selection of reference samples for novices; long-term follow-up; position management.

First of all, from the point of view of traders, the profit of reverse follow-up lies in the fact that novices cannot make long-term profits.

Because we firmly believe that it is impossible to make profits, but at the same time there will be doubts. This statement is too subjective. What if novice traders make money. There is a saying in the casino, I am not afraid of you winning money, but I am afraid of you not coming. If things go on like this, it will be returned to the market, and it will also be returned with interest. Novices rely on luck to make money, and if they make a small profit, they will not be able to keep it. Losing money is their biggest feature. Therefore, it is theoretically possible to achieve profitability as long as long-term follow-up. That is, there must be certain selection criteria for the following samples.

Is it a long-term follow-up? The biggest risk of the reverse strategy comes from the uncertainty of the novice's profit. You don't know when he will make a profit and when he will lose money. It is possible that a novice trader is lucky in a certain period of time and makes a profit for several days in a row. We will doubt whether the strategy is feasible. And this is inevitable, but many people will have the same experience when doing transactions, that is, after making profits for several days in a row, one day there will be a large loss and fall back to before liberation.

No matter what kind of trading strategy you have, the position management of real funds often plays a decisive role in whether you can achieve profitability. So how to design a reasonable coordination position management becomes very urgent.

Randomly setting up trading positions that do not follow the rules will cause large fluctuations in funds and even cause large losses. Therefore, when trading, you can take a fixed position to deal with the systematic risk of novice trading. At this time, fund management must be carried out in combination with one's own risk preference, which is specifically allocated by the trader.

Therefore, reverse copying seems to be far from being able to solve the problem of profitability. Reasonable capital planning and position control are the necessary elements to achieve profitability.

Therefore, theoretically speaking, it seems reasonable to make a feasible and reasonable anti-human trading strategy to achieve profits through the characteristics of the market and human nature. But it still takes a lot of work to establish a specific reverse copy strategy.

The first attitude expressed is that under normal circumstances, reverse copying cannot be done, and the success rate is extremely low. Because trading time, trading positions, trading mentality, trading rules, signal sample screening, risk control, etc., these factors are unpredictable.

The specific reasons are analyzed as follows:

1. Time difference problem

The market in the foreign exchange market is basically after the European market at 3 pm, and the main force is in the US market at night, such as non-farm payrolls, and even the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting at 2 am. Then, some people will say, I can arrange to work from 5 pm until the early morning At 2 o'clock, if you are in a first-tier city, you will have no way to go home. Some people may say that the cost of arranging accommodation in a second- and third-tier city is not high. Here comes the problem again. After get off work at 3 o'clock in the morning, the players will communicate frequently, so there will be many problems in management, and the most likely problem is opinion leaders. Once it appears, it is not the data we want, the previous work is wasted, and the meaning of reverse is lost.

2. Platform issues

Regarding foreign exchange, it has always been prohibited in China, and it is an illegal transaction. Most of the brands are in the MM model or in the form of MM and other models coexisting, even if they are licensed by FAC in the UK, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and other countries. Let me tell you a secret. In the past few years, many companies have actually been building one-stop foreign exchange platforms, including overseas regulatory license applications, establishing official websites, building MT4 systems, and payment channels. It can be solved without 1 million yuan, so I won’t explain much here, so, to make a transaction, at least first figure out what is the main label, white label.

3. The fluctuation is too small

The volatility of foreign exchange market products is actually huge. But compared to index futures, it seems vulnerable. In daily management, you will also find that there are no fluctuations, the traders will not be tense, and they will be tired, or even doze off, because they are not exciting enough, and it is difficult to arouse their greed.

4. Transaction costs

Reverse copying itself is real account high-frequency trading. There are high spreads in the foreign exchange market. If the data loses a lot, it will make a profit. If the data does not lose or make a profit, how much is your spread and handling fee? If you retrace this month, how much will your loss be? Many people will ignore this point and think that making money should be informal. Brother, you can calculate your day's point difference fee, a month's, a year's, the numbers are too scary. Basically, they are paid for by high handling fees and high spreads, and most of the losses caused by reverse copying are here.

5. The risk of market volatility

In the market, most of the time is a volatile market, which accounts for about 70% of all the market. You can go to review gold, US crude oil, Europe and the United States and other products. This means that the volatile market is very popular among novice traders. It is actually very easy to short rallies, long rallies, and catch a few waves, especially for some traders with a little foundation. It is very handy to do it. If the foreign exchange market fluctuates for too long, such as 1-2 weeks or even longer, it means that it is reversed, and you are likely to retrace for 1-2 weeks or even longer.

In short, in the process of reverse documentary, there are too many force majeure and uncontrollable factors. How to deal with the relationship between these problems and how to solve the risks brought by these problems is the biggest problem in the documentary. If there is no way to deal with these problems, it is recommended to be cautious in reverse copying.

We can compare trading to a word problem.

Suppose there are only two ways to solve this problem, one is calculus (long) and the other is equation (short). Others such as functions and geometry will not work.

Then the rest is the problem-solving process. Calculus is selected, then the problem solving process is all right, the result is correct (profit); the equation is also the same.

Well, now because the result is wrong, you are going to use the backward method. So, do you know if you used some wrong method other than calculus and equations, or did you make a mistake in solving the problem? ?

Judging from this list, your logic is flawed.

Going back to the perspective of trading, the correct direction is only one of the conditions for profit. To be profitable, several factors need to go hand in hand. Haven't you seen a situation where the direction is correct and it is not profitable?

The direction is correct to make a heavy position in a certain product, but in the end, because of the market correction, he died on the right road and broke the position. So you're ready to do the reverse? Is this how you follow the order in reverse?

If you analyze the market normally, whether it is right or wrong, at least you have your own basis for judgment. What is its inverse? Random analysis, uneasy common sense analysis? Do you think this is reliable?

No problem in theory, obviously you have problems in theory.

Topic, as you said, there is no problem with reverse copying in theory. It is very simple, because the trading market is either profitable or negative. If your opponent loses, then you must be profitable!

So, why do you look around and find very few people making money with reverse copying? That's because the layer you're on causes everything you see.

To put the theory of reverse copy into practice requires a lot of manpower and material resources. This is not a condition that ordinary small investors can meet, so as a retail investor, of course you can’t see anyone around you making money through reverse copy. .

But if you are an institution, or if you are Niusan, then you will find that a large number of people in this market rely on reverse copying to make profits, and they are crazily profitable!

For example, many agents now are MM platforms. The reason why they dare to bet against each other is that they use the principle of reverse copying: nine times out of ten they lose money when speculating in foreign exchange, and betting against them will definitely make a profit!

From a theoretical point of view, there is absolutely no problem in finding the losers and then making reverse copies to make a profit. But why look around, but few people can make money through reverse copying?

This is because too many prerequisites are required to complete this theory, which is not something ordinary investors have the ability to do. Take a simple condition, the signal source of continuous losses, this is what we usually call a loss. For example, you think that your best friend Xiao Lin is a loser. If you ask him to be your signal source, will he agree? There is a 90% probability that they will not agree. Let me ask, who will admit that they are a loser?

If your relationship is strong enough, you are lucky enough to get the other 10% probability, that is, your friend Xiao Lin agrees to be your signal source. But when he knows that he is the source of the loss signal, his mentality will inevitably change, that is to say, he is no longer the subject of stable losses before. At this time, he does not meet the basis of your reverse theory, so we should look for the next source of loss signal again, right?

It is the relatively harsh conditions required, which has led to the fact that few people can make money through this reverse copy theory.

Reverse copying seems beautiful, but it is actually a mirror image. It is theoretically feasible to achieve stable profits with reverse copying, but various problems will arise in practice. The biggest problem is the continuity and iteration of stable loss samples. A person or group that loses money steadily will have some people who can make stable profits after losing money for a period of time. Some irrational operations often occur during the operation, such as suddenly enlarging the position without setting a stop loss, etc. These factors make the stability of reverse copying very poor, and risk control is difficult to do. Not to mention that some frequent traders may not even be able to pay the handling fee if they go in the opposite direction.