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Fundamentals

On Wednesday (June 28) Asian session, the dollar against the yen is in a narrow range unstably, currently trading near 144. The overall volatility of yesterday's market was in the range of 143.2-144.2 and the amplitude was 0.9. Overnight release of the U.S. economic data is better than expected and the market for the Fed to continue to raise interest rates is expected to strengthen. The dollar rebounds slightly. The dollar against the yen is at 144 with the highest at 144.2, again approaching a high of 145. The closer it gets to this position, the more likely the upward pressure on the market will increase. As the voice of the Bank of Japan increases, you need to beware of the Bank of Japan's monetary intervention in the currency market.

In monthly data, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index rose more than expected to 109.7 in June, a new high of nearly a year and a half. U.S. durable goods orders rose 1.7 percent month-on-month in May and were expected to fall 1 percent, revised from a 1.1 percent gain to a 1.2 percent rise. New home sales in May hit an annual rate of 763,000 units, the highest since January last year, and rose 12.2 percent from the previous month, the biggest gain in more than a year, compared with market expectations for a 1.2 percent decline. The FHFA Home Price Index rose 0.7 percent month-on-month in April, compared with expectations of a 0.5% increase, and year-on-year growth was 3.1%.

Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, the USDJPY yesterday held the key support level of 142.50 and the center of gravity of the oscillation is gradually rising upwards. In the Asian market, the oscillation went lower to 143.3 near and then stabilized and the U.S. market began to pull up, the highest to 144.2. However, now the market is like a very tightly compressed spring, and it tended to move down if no pressure. Each time the height of the rise is also shrinking, and the amplitude of the retracement is increasing, indicating that the market lacks the force to go up. Once it goes reverse to release pressure, then the market's downward range will be very considerable. The initial support below is still at 142.5 and further strong resistance is at 138.6; the resistance above also remains unchanged initially at 145 and further strong resistance is at 152.

Today's trading recommendations are as follows. The current market goes at an absolute high and the upside is very strenuous each time. This tendency is bullish, but do not go long. The intraday recommendation is the same. You can carry out small positions in the key points with small stops to test positions. Today, you can continue to try to go short near 143.9, the stop loss is set at 144.2 above, and the take profit is set at 142.5.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Short

Entry price: 144

Target price: 144.5

Stop loss: 142.5

Support: 142.500, 140.500

Resistance: 145.000, 152.000