▶️ Analyzing Short-Term Scenarios and Implications for BTC/USD Traders ◀️
As we approach the final days of 2023, the Bitcoin (BTC/USD) market has witnessed a significant dive of $1,500. What's adding to the intrigue is the looming $10.1 billion options expiry scheduled for tonight at 21:00
Options Overview:
Data sourced from exchanges indicates a notable advantage for call options, yet bears could limit their losses by pushing BTC below the $42K handle. Leading the options market is Derbit, with an impressive $7.7 billion in open interest, followed by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) at $1.38 billion. The combined open interest of Deribit and CME options stands at $9 billion, with call options dominating by 32%.
Scenarios for BTC Options Expiry:
Between $39K to $40K:
3K call options vs 17.7K put options favor holders of puts by $575 million.
Between $40K to $42K:
13.8K calls vs 11.6 puts favor holders of calls by $90 million.
Between $43K to $44K:
24.2K calls vs 7.2K puts favor holders of calls by $730 million.
Between $44K to $45K:
27.9K calls vs 1.8K puts favor holders of calls by $1.15 billion.
Predictions and Implications:
If BTC remains near $43,100 by 21:00 pm, only $185 million worth of sell options will be available.
For put option holders, BTC must fall to $41,900, while call option holders need BTC to trade above $44K for a $1.15 billion payout tonight.
As we navigate these critical moments in the crypto market, all eyes are on the BTC options expiry, with potential outcomes that could significantly impact short-term market dynamics.
Happy New Year to all, as we await the unfolding of this intriguing chapter in Bitcoin's journey!
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#NewYearInsights
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Navigating Bitcoin's Year-End Turbulence: Insights from the December 29, 2023 Options Expiry
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