Chương 30 U.S. CPI Data Analysis 13-12-2022
U.S CPI: The U.S CPI YoY will be Released on December 13, 2022, with expected result of 7.3% down 0.4% from the Previous Result
Summary:
The U.S. economy might show some weakness versus major currencies after releasing the CPI data on 13-12-2022 at 5:30 PM (GMT +4) if the result comes out as expected at 7.3%, and a bearish dollar index will be seen.
1. Fundamentals
The U.S. will release the CPI report for November on December 13, 2022. The CPI is one of the major monthly indicators that affect the market widely, it measures the change in the price of goods from a consumer perspective, and it is a key to monitoring inflation. A higher-than-expected data is bullish for the dollar, and lower-than-expected data is bearish for the dollar. The data is expected to come out at 7.3% rather than the previous result of 7.7%. If everything goes as expected, bulls will interfere, and gold prices might increase sharply to touch $1830 an ounce. If inflation is high, then it means that the Fed will take a step to lower the inflation by increasing interest rates further, that’s why if CPI is higher than expected, the dollar index will gain strength.
If the CPI came more than expected, it is a chance to sell gold and book a decent amount of profits, and if the CPI came less than expected, it is a chance to buy gold.
Major traders are holding their positions on Gold for further increases in prices.
2. Technical Analysis
Gold Daily Chart
The daily gold pattern shows a bullish engulfing with possible prices touching the $1820 level.
Support and resistance:
1779.33
1778.27
1776.96
Pivot: 1780.64
1784.07
1783.01
1781.70
3. Trading Recommendations
High Probability Scenario:
Long Above: 1785
Resistance TP1: 1798
Resistance TP2: 1812
Alternative Scenario:
Short Below: 1775
Support TP1: 1768
Support TP2: 1760