Using Liquidity Grab, Fair Value Gap (FVG), Price Action, and Smart Money Concepts (SMC), let's break down the potential trade setup for USDJPY.
1H Timeframe Analysis (Short-term Intraday View)
Liquidity Grab:
Price recently swept liquidity from a prior resistance zone near 150.60 - 151.00, taking out early buyers.
FVG (Fair Value Gap):
There's an imbalance left near 149.50 - 149.80, suggesting that price may return to mitigate this area.
Moving Averages:
Price is currently testing a key 200 EMA resistance (white line), which is acting as dynamic resistance.
Expectation:
Possible short-term pullback to 149.50-149.80 before any further bullish movement.
4H Timeframe Analysis (Mid-Term Outlook)
Trendline & Structure:
USDJPY has been respecting a downtrend structure, rejecting a key supply zone. It is currently testing a bearish breaker block around 150.60 - 151.00.
Liquidity & Order Block:
Liquidity Grab: Price grabbed liquidity from late buyers who entered at 150.60-151.00, making it a strong resistance area.
Order Block: There’s a 4H order block near 149.30 - 149.50, where price may react.
Expectation:
If price rejects 151.00 strongly, expect a retracement toward 149.50 (FVG & OB mitigation).
A clean break above 151.00 would invalidate the short setup and confirm bullish momentum toward 152.00.
Daily Timeframe Analysis (Long-Term View)
Market Structure:
The overall trend remains bearish, with price breaking previous higher lows.
A major support level at 148.60 aligns with liquidity resting below.
Trendline & Key Levels:
Key Resistance: 150.60 - 151.00
Key Support: 148.60 - 149.00
Expectation:
If the daily closes below 150.00, a continuation toward 149.00 - 148.60 is likely.
A strong bullish daily close above 151.00 could invalidate shorts and push price toward 152.50 - 153.00.
Trade Setup & Potential Entries
Bearish Setup (Preferred)
Entry: 150.60 - 151.00 (Supply Zone & Liquidity Grab)
Stop Loss: 151.30 (Above the liquidity grab)
Take Profit 1: 149.50 (FVG mitigation)
Take Profit 2: 148.60 (Major support)
Bullish Setup (Alternative)
Entry: 149.30 - 149.50 (4H Order Block & FVG)
Stop Loss: 148.80
Take Profit 1: 150.60
Take Profit 2: 152.00
Final Thoughts
Current Bias: Short-term bearish to fill imbalance before potential bullish continuation.
Confirmation: Watch how price reacts at 151.00 resistance or 149.50 support for entry triggers.
Invalidation: A daily close above 151.00 shifts bias bullish; a break below 148.60 confirms further downside.
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