USDJPY Analysis Based on 1H, 4H, and Daily Charts

RFX Market Analysis
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Using Liquidity Grab, Fair Value Gap (FVG), Price Action, and Smart Money Concepts (SMC), let's break down the potential trade setup for USDJPY.

1H Timeframe Analysis (Short-term Intraday View)

Liquidity Grab:

Price recently swept liquidity from a prior resistance zone near 150.60 - 151.00, taking out early buyers.

FVG (Fair Value Gap):

There's an imbalance left near 149.50 - 149.80, suggesting that price may return to mitigate this area.

Moving Averages:

Price is currently testing a key 200 EMA resistance (white line), which is acting as dynamic resistance.

Expectation:

Possible short-term pullback to 149.50-149.80 before any further bullish movement.

4H Timeframe Analysis (Mid-Term Outlook)

Trendline & Structure:

USDJPY has been respecting a downtrend structure, rejecting a key supply zone. It is currently testing a bearish breaker block around 150.60 - 151.00.

Liquidity & Order Block:

Liquidity Grab: Price grabbed liquidity from late buyers who entered at 150.60-151.00, making it a strong resistance area.

Order Block: There’s a 4H order block near 149.30 - 149.50, where price may react.

Expectation:

If price rejects 151.00 strongly, expect a retracement toward 149.50 (FVG & OB mitigation).

A clean break above 151.00 would invalidate the short setup and confirm bullish momentum toward 152.00.

Daily Timeframe Analysis (Long-Term View)

Market Structure:

The overall trend remains bearish, with price breaking previous higher lows.

A major support level at 148.60 aligns with liquidity resting below.

Trendline & Key Levels:

Key Resistance: 150.60 - 151.00

Key Support: 148.60 - 149.00

Expectation:

If the daily closes below 150.00, a continuation toward 149.00 - 148.60 is likely.

A strong bullish daily close above 151.00 could invalidate shorts and push price toward 152.50 - 153.00.

Trade Setup & Potential Entries

Bearish Setup (Preferred)

Entry: 150.60 - 151.00 (Supply Zone & Liquidity Grab)

Stop Loss: 151.30 (Above the liquidity grab)

Take Profit 1: 149.50 (FVG mitigation)

Take Profit 2: 148.60 (Major support)

Bullish Setup (Alternative)

Entry: 149.30 - 149.50 (4H Order Block & FVG)

Stop Loss: 148.80

Take Profit 1: 150.60

Take Profit 2: 152.00

Final Thoughts

Current Bias: Short-term bearish to fill imbalance before potential bullish continuation.

Confirmation: Watch how price reacts at 151.00 resistance or 149.50 support for entry triggers.

Invalidation: A daily close above 151.00 shifts bias bullish; a break below 148.60 confirms further downside.

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最後編輯於2025/03/02 22:28

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