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Fundamentals

During the Asian session on Wednesday (June 14th), spot gold extended fluctuation in a narrow range and is currently trading around 1948. Overnight inflation pressures were mixed, with gold prices fluctuating more than $30. The released data sent the market into hesitation, with the Dollar and Treasury yields taking the lead in weakening and gold moving higher above 1970. However, the market trend began to reverse sharply soon after, the yield of various maturities of the Treasury treasury soared, and the price of gold also turned swiftly, falling as low as around 1940 to find support. Overall, the current gold price still cannot be separated from the oscillation pattern of the 1940-1970 area. Therefore, buying low and selling high in the range is still an effective strategy.

Investors need to focus on the US PPI, the Fed's interest rate decision as well as speech of Powell today.

Data: CPI rose 4% YoY in May, falling for the 11th consecutive month, the lowest since March 2021, with the expectation of 4.1% and the previous value of 4.9%. CPI rose 0.1% MoM(prev. 0.4%), but was lower than expectations at 0.2%. The May core CPI rose 5.3% YoY and 0.4% MoM.

Technical Analysis

Trading at the daily timeframe, gold prices fluctuated sharply on Tuesday but still did not break through the short-term oscillation box of 1940-1970. In anticipation of the tightening US dollar, gold prices will maintain an overall oscillate downward trend in the short term. For one thing, don't expect gold to plummet until it falls below 1932. For another, gold prices only temporarily fluctuated in the 1940-1970 range, and could soar at any time after standing firm in 1970. Therefore, investors should remain cautious in this range, you can safely take unilateral shorts unless it falls below 1932.

We have also highlighted again short positions around 1965 yesterday. Try to keep the bears until the CPI is announced. Taking profit in 1942 can also cash out profits. Although there is a Fed decision today, it is basically expected, which will hardly affect gold prices. It is recommended to keep taking short positions within the range today, supplemented by longs. The center of bulls and bears focuses on 1950-1955. During the Asian session, if the gold price rushes to 1950-1955 without breaking, traders can clear the position to test the short and all exit after falling back to 1940 support. At the same time, aggressive traders can wait for the opportunity to lay out some long positions and wait for Powell's speech in the early hours of the evening before following up further.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Short

Entry Price: 1955

Target Price: 1940

Stop Loss: 1970

Support: 1940.000/1932.000

Resistance: 1970.000/1985.000