Navigating Bitcoin's Year-End Turbulence: Insights from the December 29, 2023 Options Expiry

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▶️ Analyzing Short-Term Scenarios and Implications for BTC/USD Traders ◀️ As we approach the final days of 2023, the Bitcoin (BTC/USD) market has witnessed a significant dive of $1,500. What's adding to the intrigue is the looming $10.1 billion options expiry scheduled for tonight at 21:00 Options Overview: Data sourced from exchanges indicates a notable advantage for call options, yet bears could limit their losses by pushing BTC below the $42K handle. Leading the options market is Derbit, with an impressive $7.7 billion in open interest, followed by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) at $1.38 billion. The combined open interest of Deribit and CME options stands at $9 billion, with call options dominating by 32%. Scenarios for BTC Options Expiry: Between $39K to $40K: 3K call options vs 17.7K put options favor holders of puts by $575 million. Between $40K to $42K: 13.8K calls vs 11.6 puts favor holders of calls by $90 million. Between $43K to $44K: 24.2K calls vs 7.2K puts favor holders of calls by $730 million. Between $44K to $45K: 27.9K calls vs 1.8K puts favor holders of calls by $1.15 billion. Predictions and Implications: If BTC remains near $43,100 by 21:00 pm, only $185 million worth of sell options will be available. For put option holders, BTC must fall to $41,900, while call option holders need BTC to trade above $44K for a $1.15 billion payout tonight. As we navigate these critical moments in the crypto market, all eyes are on the BTC options expiry, with potential outcomes that could significantly impact short-term market dynamics. Happy New Year to all, as we await the unfolding of this intriguing chapter in Bitcoin's journey! #BitcoinOptions #CryptoAnalysis #BTCOutlook #DerbitCMEData #MarketTrends #CryptocurrencyTrading #OptionsExpiry #BitcoinPrice #ShortTermTrading #NewYearInsights