บทที่ 17 XAUUSD: Safe-Haven Sentiment Improves, Gold Oscillates Weakly（5.16）
Fundamentals
Spot gold oscillated upward during the Asian session on Tuesday (May 16th) and is currently trading near $2016. Besides, concerns about debt default provided safe-haven support to gold for a slight rebound. However, as the time for the U.S. debt ceiling approaches, the market is in a serious wait-and-see sentiment, waiting for the debt ceiling negotiations between President Joe Biden and Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy later in the day. In addition, the market strengthened the optimism that the U.S. may reach a debt ceiling deal as the past 104 debt ceilings were able to reach a last-minute agreement, setting gold prices under downside risks shortly.
The U.S. April retail sales data will be released today, and the market expectation is 0.7% (previously 0.1%). Meanwhile, several Fed officials will give speeches and the U.S. Senate Banking Committee will also hold hearings on the bankruptcy of the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. These should raise investors' attention.
In general, at present, although the continued impasse in the U.S. debt ceiling negotiations has formed some support for precious metals prices, the support is not significant. When the event passes, risk sentiment will be improved, while the Fed officials refute the market's expectations of interest rate cuts during the year, the phase adjustment of precious metals has begun and may continue.
The trading range today will be $2000-$2020.
Technical Analysis
Regarding the daily chart, MACD forms a death cross, and the previous bearish divergence continues. In addition, KDJ forms a death cross, while the 5-day SMA breaks below the 10-day SMA and forms a death cross, indicating strong bearish signals. Gold will be weak until it surges above the 10-day SMA ($2025). Furthermore, the initial support is near the 20-day SMA ($2009) and the lower support on May 5th is near $2000. If the support is broken continuously, further bearish signals will be added with an expectation of gold plunging to $1969, which is the low of one month and a half, to see further support.
Nonetheless, gold stays above 2000 currently and it is possible to appreciate further. If gold successfully climbs above the key resistance of $2025 and $2048, it will start a new round of gain.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Short
Entry price: 2020
Target price: 1980
Stop loss: 2050
Support: 2000.000/1969.000
Resistance: 2048.000/2080.000
