บทที่ 11 11/22 WTI: OPEC Member States in Internal Dispute as International Oil Prices Continue to Decline
Summary: WTI crude oil experienced a significant 4.00% intraday drop, currently trading at $74.10 per barrel. OPEC+ representatives stated that the scheduled OPEC+ meeting set for the weekend has been postponed.
Fundamentals
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated that oil prices are currently at a favorable level, and the market is in a balanced state. Novak declined to comment on whether OPEC+ would alter the existing oil supply reduction agreement at the Sunday meeting, stating that "Russia has agreed to undertake two separate reductions in oil supply." In April, Russia decided to cut crude oil production by 500,000 barrels by the end of 2024, and in August, it expressed the intention to reduce exports by 300,000 barrels by the end of this year.
However, with the possible delay of the OPEC ministerial meeting scheduled for this weekend, international oil prices continue their downward trend, hitting intraday lows.
Reports suggest dissatisfaction from Saudi Arabia regarding the oil production levels of other member countries. Concerns arise that if other nations do not further cut production, Saudi Arabia may revoke its unilateral cut of 1 million barrels per day. WTI crude oil fell over 3% in the New York session, while Brent crude oil briefly dropped 2.9%.
On another note, insights into WTI crude oil may be gleaned from the EIA inventory report expected later, projecting a decrease of 900,000 barrels compared to the earlier forecast of an increase of 3.6 million barrels. This suggests rising demand, potentially maintaining strength in the short term and driving an upward trajectory in crude oil prices.
Earlier, minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) stimulated some risk-taking as the central bank remains confident in the strength of economic activity. Nevertheless, policymakers emphasized the need to maintain rate constraints to control inflationary pressures.
Currently, crude oil prices appear bullish after touching recent lows, and concerns about the Fed having completed rate hikes seem subdued, as the Fed has not signaled a shift towards policy easing.
Technical Analysis
WTI crude oil is establishing lower highs and lower lows, interconnected by a descending channel within its hourly timeframe. The current price action is testing support levels, driven by internal disputes among OPEC member nations, leading to an ongoing decline in international oil prices.
The gap between moving averages is widening, reflecting increased selling pressure. However, the fact that the 100 SMA is still below the 200 SMA indicates that the downward trend is likely to find support.
Previously, the dynamic turning point of the 100 SMA coincided with channel resistance at the major psychological level of $80.00, which was sufficient to suppress the upward momentum. However, the price's intraday drop to the channel's bottom aligns with our earlier expectations.
Currently, the stochastic oscillator has entered the oversold zone, indicating that selling pressure has become excessive. Meanwhile, oscillators such as the oscillating indicator and RSI are also in oversold conditions. Therefore, a strong bullish resurgence is likely. In terms of trading, buying the dips is the primary strategy.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Long
Entry Price: 74.00
Target Price: 79.90
Stop Loss: 72.37
Valid Until: 2023-12-06 23:55:00
Support: 74.08, 73.33, 72.36
Resistance: 78.42, 79.64, 80.85
