{x} | Trading.live

Fundamentals

During Monday's (September 11th) Asian session, spot gold narrowly oscillated upward, and it is currently trading at 1927. Recently, the U.S. economic data including the lower-than-expected initial jobless claims have raised the market expectation of the Fed to keep raising interest rates. As a result, the USD continued to strengthen, suppressing the price trend of precious metals. Besides, the USDX continued to ascend on Friday night, while the gold price dropped to 1917 and rebounded after. In general, gold is resistant against decline, which is also in line with our expectation that gold will rebound with oscillations. Next, investors need to pay attention to the upcoming U.S. CPI and retail sales data in August (to be published this week) to trade the next policy decision.

News: Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said in an interview with the Yomiuri Shimbun that the BOJ could get enough data by the end of the year to determine whether it can end negative interest rates. Today, China's central bank held a Special Meeting on the National Self-Regulatory Mechanism for the Foreign Exchange Market, pledging to take action to correct unilateral and pro-cyclical activities when needed.

Today's focus: There is no significant data on September 11th, and the important data will be released on Wednesday and Thursday, including the U.S. CPI and Retail Sales data in August.

Technical Analysis

Daily chart: Gold's pattern last week was in line with our analysis. It was emphasized that gold would depreciate slightly from Monday to Wednesday, and rebound on Thursday and Friday. In addition, gold oscillated from 1917 to 1930, which was compliant with our expectations. This week, gold will keep ascending. However, it will oscillate at the beginning of the week with difficulties breaking through, and investors should wait for the data on Wednesday and Thursday. Technically, gold rebounded last Thursday and last Friday slightly, but failed to cross above 1930, resulting in a double top pattern at 1930 and suppressing gold shortly. From the daily chart, gold kept depreciation from 1953 to 1915, and failed to break below 1915 after many trials. If gold stays above 1915, there will be little space below. But once gold drops below 1915, investors should move the target to 1900 or even to 1890. Meanwhile, the resistance at 1930 was tremendous, and the space above would be limited if gold could not ascend above it. In addition, further targets above can be set at 1945. Therefore, if gold fails to cross through the oscillating range, investors should buy low and sell high, and wait for the accumulation of momentum. The turning point will appear on Wednesday.

Trading recommendations: Buy low and sell high. If gold depreciates to 1916, investors should go long with small positions shortly, and set the stop-loss at 1911. To take profits, the first target will be at 1931, where investors should move the stop-loss to breakeven, and fix the second target at 1945. Nonetheless, if gold climbs up to 1930, aggressive investors should go short with small positions, and put the stop-loss at 1935. To take profits, the first target will be put at 1920, where investors should move the stop-loss to breakeven, and set the second target at 1915.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Short

Entry price: 1930

Target price: 1915

Stop loss: 1935

Support: 1915.000/1900.000

Resistance: 1930.000/1953.000