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Abstract: The EURUSD remained pessimistic on Tuesday to cope with the recovery of risk aversion. The asset's recent actions still have no direction, and it has remained in the range of 1.0942-1.1095 for the fourth consecutive week. Breaking through any range will generate new direction signals.

Fundamentals

Last week, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates by 25 basis points to cope with the still stubborn inflationary pressure. However, at present, the two central banks have increasingly different views on the interest rate prospect, which provides a stronger reason for the euro to continue to rise against the US dollar.

The ECB's interest rate decision confirms its determination to fight inflation but may also indicate that the ECB is entering the final phase of its monetary cycle. Because the continued tightening of credit conditions seems to have triggered the ECB's shift to a slower pace, but given the stickiness of inflation, the market is still inclined to hold the EUR in the near term. This also means that the pullback is still an opportunity to consolidate long positions of the EUR.

Currently, the EURUSD trades between 1.0942 and 1.1095, narrower than its expected range of 1.0980 to 1.1060, as the ECB's underlying tone has softened somewhat recently. However, any decline is unlikely to fall below the 1.0900 level. The upward resistance level is at 1.1025, and a breakthrough of 1.1045 will indicate that the current mild downward pressure has eased. As stressed, the EUR overall will tend to move upwards in the future. In the short term, if the EUR falls below 1.0940, it will weaken its future upward momentum and indicate that the EURUSD is not ready to move to 1.1120.

Given market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates after the summer, it is far from certain that the EURUSD will rise significantly. If the market is disappointed, the USD's negative bets may fall. Therefore, the EURUSD is expected to consolidate after breaking through the recent range shock. The possibility of a global recession in the next few years is highly uncertain for the USD, but the recession may be good for the USD.

Technical Analysis

The EURUSD has been steadily increasing since it settled at 1.0516 in mid-March. Although the EURUSD hit a 13-month high of 1.1095 in late April 26, it has been consolidating since then and does not appear to be able to hit a higher high; However, we believe that in the short term, the directional selection will begin.

During the day, although mixed market sentiment was helping the USD maintain its recovery and weaken the EURUSD, the short-term oscillator supported a cautious bullish trend. Specifically, the MACD is weakening but still above the 0-axis, while the RSI is flat above the neutral level of 50.

If bulls revive the market and push up prices, a 13-month high of 1.1095 could become the initial resistance. Beyond that level, the EURUSD could test new multi-month highs. The March 2022 resistance level of 1.1184 may prove to be a difficult hurdle for bulls to overcome. Any subsequent gains could pause at 1.1495.

On the other hand, if the EURUSD continues to decline during the day's downtrend, bears may aim for near-term support of 1.0940. If the floor collapses, it may be critically supported at level 1.0830 before reaching level 1.0720. A break below 1.0720 could lay the groundwork for a March low of 1.0515. This is the bottom of the EURUSD's latest upward trend.

Overall, the EURUSD has been consolidating below its recent 13-month high and appears to lack the necessary momentum to move higher. Nonetheless, the narrower decline reinforces the blow-out effect, with broader technical signals likely to push prices higher. It is recommended to buy the dips.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Long

Entry price: 1.0940

Target price: 1.1220

Stop loss: 1.0780

Deadline: 2022-05-23 23:55:00

Support: 1.1000, 1.1044, 1.1075, 1.1095

Resistance: 1.1000, 1.0960, 1.0942, 1.0909