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September 8, 2022

Important Economic Calendar Analysis

2 pm (GMT+4)

U.S API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks

Previous: -0.5%    Forecast: 2.9%    Actual:3.5%

Impact: High Impact on USDJPY Pair

Previous: 593K    Forecast: -733K    Actual: 3645K

Impact: Low market impact

The U.S API weekly crude oil stocks came unexpectedly at 3645K with a forecasted view at -733K. This fundamental did not affect the market majorly. But as a rule of thumb, it might be bullish for the dollar.

Japan Annual Real GDP Revised QoQ (Q2)

Previous: -0.5%    Forecast: 2.9%    Actual:3.5%

Impact: High Impact on USDJPY Pair

From the two charts above, we can analyze that this decision is very important for the USDJPY pair where a better-than-expected result is bullish for JPY, and less than expected is bearish for JPY. A drop of almost 30 PIP was driven by this decision on the USDJPY pair.

Switzerland Unemployment Rate (August)

Previous: 2.2%    Forecast: 2.2%    Actual: 2.1%

Market Impact: High Impact on EURUSD Pair

The unemployment rate came positive for Switzerland with a decrease from 2.2% to 2.1%. A positive result would be bullish for Euro, and a negative result would be bearish for Euro. From 

the two charts above, we can see the volatility that happened in the market with an increase of 25 PIP when this fundamental was released.

France Trade Balance:

Previous: -13.080 BEUR    Forecast: -13.56BEUR    Actual: -14.538BEUR

Market Impact: High Impact on EURUSD pair

Analysis:

The decision came negative for France’s economy, thus bearishly affecting the EURUSD pair as visible in chart 2. As a rule of thumb, positive data would be bullish for Euro, and negative data would be bearish for Euro. Upon this fundamental, EURUSD dropped by roughly 20 PIPS.

Upcoming Decisions

Eurozone ECB Main Refinancing Rate:

Previous: 0.5%    Forecast: 1.25%    Actual: To be announced

Analysis: 

The main refinancing rate or minimum bid rate is the interest rate that banks do have to pay when they borrow money from the ECB. Banks do so when they are short on liquidities. There is a strong response of interbank interest rates (like Euribor) to changes in the ECB refinancing rate. This does imply that the ECB interest rate can be used as a tool to influence market interest rates. A more than expected result is bullish for the EUR, and a less than expected result is bearish for the EUR.

U.S Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (SA)

Previous: 232K    Forecast: 240K    Actual: To be announced

Analysis:

An initial claim is a claim filed by an unemployed individual after a separation from an employer. The claim requests a determination of basic eligibility for the Unemployment Insurance program. A less-than-expected result is bullish for the USD, and a more-than-expected result is bearish for the USD.

U.S EIA Natural Gas Stocks Weekly

Previous: 61B   Forecast: 54B    Actual: To be announced

Analysis:

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides weekly information on natural gas stocks in underground storage for the U.S. and five regions of the country. The level of inventories helps determine prices for natural gas products.

Natural gas product prices are determined by supply and demand - just like any other good and service. During periods of strong economic growth, one would expect demand to be robust. If inventories are low, this may lead to increases in natural gas prices. If inventories are high and rising in a period of strong demand, prices may not need to increase at all, or as much. During a period of sluggish economic activity, demand for natural gas may not be as strong. If inventories are rising, this may push down natural gas prices.

While this is a U.S indicator, it also impacts the Canadian dollar due to Canada’s energy size. An increase in natural gas inventories that is more than expected implies weaker demand, thus bearish for natural gas prices, and the same can be said if a decline in inventories is less than expected. However, if the increase is less than expected, it implies greater demand and is bullish for the natural gas prices, and the same can be said if a decline in inventories is more than expected.

U.S EIA Weekly Crude Stocks

Previous: -3.326M   Forecast: -0.25M    Actual: To be announced

Analysis:

EIA crude oil inventories measures on weekly basis the changes in the number of barrels held by U.S firms. This indicator has an impact on inflation. If the increase in crude inventories is more than expected or if a decline in inventories is less than expected, it would be bearish for crude prices. However, if the increase in crude inventories is less than expected or if a decline in inventories is more than expected it would be bullish for crude prices.