The Iranian issue cannot be viewed in isolation, but should be discussed together with neighboring countries. The Middle East is too complicated. Ethnicity, religion, transportation, geopolitics, oil resources, etc., affect the whole body. Let’s start with the “Shiite Crescent Half Arc”, also known as the “Shiite Crescent Belt” in academia, which was proposed by the King of Jordan when he was interviewed by an American reporter in 2004.
Lebanon-Syria-Iraq-Iran, the connection of several countries looks like the moon, doesn't it? In fact, the King of Jordan's statement is old wine in new bottles, and this area has been referred to as "Fertile Crescent" in history.
Many people know that the Crusades in the Middle Ages in Europe, this war also has a name, the cross VS the moon. The cross is a symbol of Catholicism, and the moon is a symbol of Islam. For a long time, the Crusades were interpreted as sectarian disputes.
This statement is correct, but not comprehensive.
It is correct that at that time European countries were indeed flying the banner of religious wars, so there was legitimacy, fighting for ideals. Not comprehensively, under the veil of religious wars, there are actually more conflicts of interests.
Look carefully at the map, is it true that as long as the "Fertile Crescent" is occupied, the entire Middle East will be captured?
Therefore, the "Fertile Crescent" is really important, and it has been the center of wars since ancient times.
At first, the Persians had to go through the "Fertile Crescent" when they went west; the Arabs had to go through the "Fertile Crescent" when they went north; later, the Turks also entered Turkey through the "Fertile Crescent".
During the Crusades, both Britain and France tried to take down the "Fertile Crescent", but at that time, Britain and France were not considered European powers, and their combat effectiveness was almost high, but they failed. But the European countries' greed for the "Fertile Crescent" has never died.
In modern times, a large amount of oil was discovered in the Persian Gulf, and there are precious water sources here. It is impossible not to have wars here.
// scourge and scourge
Before World War I, neither Lebanon nor Syria was an independent country, but part of the Ottoman Turkish Empire. Iran was an independent country, but mixed with Germany.
Let me add here that the relationship between Iran and Germany has always been very good. Since modern times, Britain and Russia have always bullied Iran, and Germany helped them out.
Why are Germany and Iran so good?
The Germans claim to be the descendants of the Aryans, while Iran claims to be the birthplace of the Aryans. In this way, the Iranians are the "ancestors" of the Germans. Therefore, during World War I, the Ottoman Turkish Empire, Germany, and Iran were all in the same group. It's a pity that they were defeated by the alliance formed by Britain, the United States and France. Disintegration of the Ottoman Turkish Empire.
After World War I, according to the "Treaty of Versailles", France, as the victorious country, occupied Syria and Lebanon. Britain, as the victorious country, takes over Iran.
Iran was ruled by the Qajar dynasty at that time, and Britain supported an officer named Reza Khan, launched a coup, and overthrew the Qajar dynasty.
To put it bluntly, Reza Khan is actually quite powerful. He is called "Iran's Kemal". During his reign, he made drastic changes and carried out many reforms. The most important point is to vigorously promote the movement of de-Islamization and secularization. , Crack down on Islamic religious forces, and integrate Iran into modern Western society as soon as possible.
It is this most important point that planted the disaster, which continues to this day.
Let's talk about Lebanon. Although the land area is only 10,000 square kilometers, which is a tiny place, its geographical location is too important, and there is a port. The French regard it as a treasure.
In order to control Lebanon for a long time, the French resorted to a trick to allocate part of Syria to Lebanon. In this way, the three factions of Maronite Christianity, Shiite Islam, and Sunni Islam in Lebanon have roughly the same population and contain each other. France is behind the scenes.
It has to be said that France and the United Kingdom are wicked enough, and they always like to engage in the "divide and rule" trick. The Middle East and South Asia have done this before, leaving sequelae, and they are still fighting.
Well, more than ten years have passed, and World War II is about to begin.
This Iran is really honest, logically speaking, if the British support you, you must mix with the British, but Reza Khan is not, it is better to be with Germany. After all, blood is thicker than water.
We know that World War II was started by Hitler. Hitler said that the Aryans were the best race in the world. Since Iran is the "ancestor" of the Aryans, of course it stands with Germany. When World War II broke out, Reza Khan announced that Iran would remain neutral and would not fight Germany, which made Britain smoke from its nose.
At that time, Iraq and Germany were in the same group, so the United Kingdom brought in the younger brother India to clean up Iraq first, and then planned to clean up Iran.
After Germany declared war on the Soviet Union, Churchill immediately winked at Stalin, and the two hooked up like this: the Soviet Union sent troops to clean up Iran with Britain, so that Iran became a channel for Britain to send medicines and weapons to the Soviet Union.
Stalin was being killed by Hitler, and he was eager for foreign aid, so he agreed to Churchill.
As a result, Britain and the Soviet Union attacked Iran from the north and the south. Seeing that something was wrong, Reza Khan passed on the position of the king to his son Pahlavi. He took a bag of soil from the motherland and ran away, exiled overseas, and later died in South Africa.
In this way, the United Kingdom and the Soviet Union divided Iran up, the Soviet Union occupied the north, the United Kingdom occupied the south, and the central region was left to the poor Shah Pahlavi.
Later, the famous Tehran Conference was held in Iran. Britain, the United States and the Soviet Union signed the Tehran Declaration, and aid from the United Kingdom and the United States was sent to the Soviet Union through Iran.
As the host, Iran watched several major powers show off their power in their own home and give pointers to the country.
After World War II, the British withdrew from Iran, but the Soviets refused to evacuate, and established two puppet regimes in Azerbaijan and Kurdish in northern Iran.
Pahlavi asked the Americans for help. The United States did not want the Soviet Union to become bigger, so Truman warned Stalin that the Soviets withdrew from Iran, but the two puppet regimes of Azerbaijan and Kurds were a great disaster.
The French also withdrew, and Lebanon finally became an independent country. Among them, the Maronites hold the presidency, the Sunnis occupy the prime minister's post, and the Shiites are given a chairman of the parliament, which basically has no status.
To make matters worse, Maronites and Sunnis almost own more than 90% of the country's wealth. The only consolation is that the Shia population is large, accounting for almost half of the country, and they are also particularly productive, with the proportion of the population increasing year by year.
This is another scourge.
// from slave to general
The breaking point has finally come. In 1979, the Islamic Revolution broke out in Iran.
Back then, after the Americans helped Iran drive the Soviets away, the Shah of Pahlavi turned to the United States and launched a "white revolution", intending to replicate the United States in Iran and fully Westernize it.
This of course drew strong opposition from conservatives. Pahlavi also practiced dictatorship, his life was very corrupt and degenerate, and the wealth was uneven in the country. All walks of life are about to move. Finally, the religious leader Khomeini raised his arms and launched the Islamic Revolution. Khomeini is a Shiite and advocates Islamic revival. Respondents gathered. The Pahlavi king was expelled and went into exile overseas.
Khomeini established a state that combines theocracy. He is the supreme leader of Iran with a lifelong tenure. Iran also has a president, but it is equivalent to a professional manager with a term of office.
As soon as Khomeini came to power, the Shiites in the entire Middle East were very encouraged.
For a long time, the Shiites have a large number of people, but they are located at the bottom of each country, and they have suffered humiliation. They want to "turn over the serfs and sing."
After the founding of Lebanon, the Maronites had the Falange, the Sunnis had Arafat's PLO, and the Shiites did not have their own armed forces, and the situation was the worst.
But history creates opportunity.
After the Iranian revolution, Khomeini wanted to expand the results of the war, so he encouraged the Shiites in Iraq to also rise up to make troubles. This made Iraqi President Saddam Hussein very unhappy. He is a Sunni.
Iran and Iraq already had border disputes, and old hatred was added to new hatred. Saddam decided to act first. He thought that Khomeini had just come to power, and Iran was still unstable, so he was caught off guard.
This is the "Iran-Iraq War". Unexpectedly, the blitzkrieg became a protracted war. After eight years of fighting, Iraq used all high-tech weapons except atomic bombs and hydrogen bombs, including biological and chemical weapons, but failed to take down Iran.
Among them, 1982 is critical. That year, Britain and Argentina fought over the Falklands, and the United States and the Soviet Union were watching, not caring about the Middle East.
Seeing the rare opportunity, Israel dispatched 100,000 troops to attack Lebanon, preparing to wipe out Arafat and the PLO hidden there.
In other words, Iran is really ruthless. While fighting Iraq, it also helped Lebanon fight Israel. Iran secretly sent 1,500 Revolutionary Guard officers and soldiers into Lebanon to help the Lebanese Shiites train their armed forces. This new armed force became the famous Hezbollah.
Hezbollah accepts the leadership of Iran, which trains soldiers and develops equipment. Almost none of the countries in the Middle East are opponents of Israel, but Hezbollah fought tenaciously and confronted Israel head-on.
Israel drove Arafat and the PLO out of Lebanon and withdrew its troops a few years later, while Hezbollah has become the largest party in Lebanon through the tempering of the war.
In this way, the "Fertile Crescent", except Iraq, is all Shiites in power.
I never thought that the Americans would join in again.
// Terrorism rises
This is the 1991 Gulf War. After the start of the Cold War, Iraq has been mixing with the Soviet Union, which made the United States very angry, and once listed Iraq as an evil country.
During the "Iran-Iraq War", the United States changed its attitude towards Iraq and turned to support Iraq. They were afraid that Iran would win, and Khomeini would export revolution throughout the Middle East and collectively oppose the United States.
The United States provided Saddam with a lot of assistance, including advanced weapons and sending agents to train the army. The "Iran-Iraq War" was protracted, and Iraq couldn't bear it, and it borrowed a lot of money from Kuwait.
After the war, Iraq hoped that OPEC would reduce oil production and thus raise oil prices, so that they could make huge profits and pay off their debts sooner. Unexpectedly, Kuwait played a bad role by substantially increasing oil production and lowering oil prices. why? It turned out that Iraq and Kuwait had a border dispute, and Kuwait hoped to fight an economic war to force Iraq to make concessions.
This angered Saddam. After the "Iran-Iraq War", Iraq was devastated. They simply broke the cans, killed Kuwait, robbed oil fields, and did not have to pay off their debts.
Kuwait really sucks. Iraq can't beat Iran, but it's more than enough to beat Kuwait.
Americans are not happy.
Kuwait is rich in oil. Of the 20 large oil fields in the world, 11 are in the Gulf region, mainly in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Iran and the United Arab Emirates.
The United States, Western Europe, and Japan all import oil from the Gulf region. If Iraq occupies Kuwait, the world's energy structure will change, and the international structure will also change drastically.
Then US President George W. Bush said that Iraq's invasion of Kuwait was "naked aggression" and "posed a real threat" to the national interests of the United States.
America hit Iraq. Poor Iraq was beaten badly and sanctioned by Western countries. From then on, Saddam focused on confronting the United States.
Through the Gulf War, the United States practiced new combat methods, which strongly shocked the traditional concept of war formed since World War II.
After the Gulf War, the United States began stationing troops in the Arabian Peninsula. The United States has always supported Israel, which has been hated by the Arabs, and now it has nakedly stationed troops, which has invisibly integrated various anti-Western forces.
One of them was bin Laden, who vehemently opposed the US presence because, in his view, the entire Arabian Peninsula was sacred. Bin Laden is a rich second generation of Saudi Arabia. He believes that the Arabian Peninsula should not be tarnished and opposes any major country's intervention.
In the 1970s, after the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, he also volunteered to fight in Afghanistan against the Soviet Union. During the battle, he met a "one-eyed general" named Omar.
After the war in Afghanistan, in 1988, bin Laden formed Al Qaeda.
Omar formed an armed force in Afghanistan, the Taliban.
The two most terrifying organizations were born in this way, which the United States and the Soviet Union absolutely could not have imagined.
After the Gulf War, Al Qaeda planned many terrorist attacks against the United States, which attracted the attention of the United States. But because of the internal strife between the CIA and the FBI, opportunities were missed again and again, so that in 2001, the "September 11 Incident" broke out.
At that time, the president of the United States was Bush Jr., and he had to bear the consequences of his father's planting. Bush Jr. hit Afghanistan first, saying that the Taliban sheltered al-Qaeda. After fighting Afghanistan, Bush Jr. fought Iraq again, saying that he had discovered "biochemical weapons."
All in the name of anti-terrorism. Americans fully support it. These two wars dragged the Americans into the quagmire and changed the post-Cold War world pattern.
// sound west hit east
Poor Saddam was abused again, so he was overthrown by the Americans and died.
Saddam Hussein was a Sunni, and when he fell, the Shiites came to power. In this way, Lebanon-Syria-Iran-Iraq are all Shiites who have the final say.
The so-called "Shiite Crescent" arose.
Because of this, after the outbreak of the Syrian war, Iran directly sent a large number of troops into Syria to help Bashar fight the opposition.
At the end of 2011, the United States finally couldn't take it anymore. Obama announced the withdrawal of troops from Iraq, but left a big mess, which still needs the help of the Americans to maintain.
As for Afghanistan, the security situation is still "dangerous" and the Afghan security forces are not yet "strong enough" for the withdrawal of US troops.
These two wars really dragged the United States quite hard. Coupled with the economic crisis in 2008, Americans are unhappy again.
Looking at the international situation, Russia is lingering, the European Union and Japan are weak, but China is making great strides, unknowingly becoming the world's second largest economy.
The Americans panicked and were eager to get out of the Middle East and shift their strategic center to the Asia-Pacific region to contain China's rise.
In those years, there were constant frictions between China and neighboring countries, and the United States was behind it.
America's number one enemy in the Middle East is Iran. To withdraw, Iran must be appeased.
The six-party negotiations on the Iranian nuclear issue led by the United States started, and a consensus was reached in 2015 to sign the Iran nuclear agreement.
Iran has promised not to develop nuclear weapons, and Western countries will not sanction Iran.
In addition to the traditional friendly countries Germany, Britain, France, China and India all do business with Iran. After all, Iran is the world's second largest crude oil reserve country and the third largest oil producer.
Everything seemed fine until Trump came to power.
// Profit
Don't look at Trump's rude behavior and poor appearance, but he does things unambiguously and does what he says. During the election campaign, he said that the Iran nuclear deal that Obama was working on was terrible, and that if he came to power, it would be abolished. The reason why he threw out such a big news at this juncture is mainly to prepare for the mid-term elections.
Trump is a Republican, and the main financial backer is an arms dealer. How can arms dealers get rich if there is no war. If you want to be re-elected, you can't offend the donor.
To stabilize the Republican Party, the Democratic Party must be satisfied.
Iran previously publicly announced that it would prohibit the use of U.S. dollars for settlement in the field of crude oil exports, but instead use RMB, rubles, euros, and Indian rupees for settlement.
The United States' global hegemony relies on petrodollars, which will kill the United States.
In this way, if Trump goes to clean up Iran, the Democratic Party will have nothing to say.
Of course, Trump also wants to directly attack Iran by air, just like bombing Syria, but he has been unable to find an "excuse", or he is very passive.
As a result, Israel sent a "God Assist".
Only Israel has nuclear weapons in the Arabian Peninsula, and he must not allow other Arab countries to have nuclear weapons. In the past, as long as it was discovered that an Arab country had a nuclear base, Israel would destroy it, and did everything possible to ensure an absolute advantage in force.
After the signing of the Iran nuclear agreement that year, Israel was very sad and has been lobbying the United States to withdraw.
Well, now Israel claims that their spy agency sneaked into Iran and stole top secret documents that can prove that Iran has been secretly developing nuclear weapons.
Now, Trump is so happy that he doesn't need to fight any more. He directly uses this reason to abolish the nuclear agreement, re-impose economic sanctions, and "gently" strangle Iran to death.
To Israel, Trump reciprocated and decided to move the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem.
Crazy enough.
Jerusalem is the holy land of several major religions. Thousands of years have been fought for this place, and countless people have died.
No country has ever dared to admit that Jerusalem is the capital of Israel. It might cause a world war, at least another Middle East war.
Trump didn't care.
It also proved once again that the power of the Jews in the United States is too strong. The conspiracy theory that the Jews have controlled the United States does not seem to be groundless.
By the way, Trump's son-in-law is Jewish.
The United States has withdrawn from the Iran nuclear agreement, and other countries have declared that they will continue to maintain it.
The world is like a new chess game, and the one thing that never changes is the interests.
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