Chapter 32 XAUUSD:Beware of Sharp Rise or Fall as the Fluctuation Pivot Declines（6.22）
Fundamentals
On Thursday (June 22) in the Asian session, spot gold fluctuated within a narrow range and is currently trading in the vicinity of 1,933. Yesterday's market was mainly influenced by the speeches made by Federal Reserve officials. It first fell to 1,919 and then rose to 1,937, with a full-day fluctuation of nearly US$20. It finally closed in the vicinity of 1,933, slightly lower than the closing price of the previous trading day. It seems to fluctuate greatly, but nothing has changed. Looking back on yesterday, the speech made by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at the congressional hearing was entirely in line with expectations. He continued to be hawkish and stressed that the interest rate hike would only be suspended in June and would continue to be raised before the end of the year. However, this was also the most boring speech and a hardly heardnew word. On the contrary, Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Bostic is even more interesting. He said that interest rates are expected to remain unchanged until the end of this year and interest rates will not be cut "for most of 2024" (the implication is that interest rates should not be raised again this year and until 2024).The price of gold also adjusted back as expected after Powell's speech. It recorded its lowest price at 1,919, and then after the speeches of two officials, it rebounded to the highest point of 1,937, recovering the decline. Overall, the gold price is still dominated by weak fluctuation, and it is difficult to have a smooth one-way movement, but the fluctuating pivot is declining. The intra-day reference interval is 1,930-1,945.
Today, the focus should be placed on U.S. weekly initial jobless claims, U.S. annual total home sales (May), U.S. annual total home sales (May), U.S. weekly EIA crude oil inventories, and the preliminary Eurozone consumer confidence index (June).
Technical Analysis
In the 1D timeframe, gold fell slightly on Tuesday and closed negative with a long lower shadow. The current fluctuation pivot is gradually moving down, and the momentum of the bulls is gradually declining. To recover, it must first have a long white body and stand above 1,950, while the bears are gradually taking the lead. However, there is no incentive to expand quickly, and it still fluctuates downwards. If it is still slowly falling, the focus can be paid to the 1,915-1,920 range support below. On the contrary, if it rebounds quickly, the focus can be paid to the resistance from 1,950 to 1,955. The MACD is still consolidating near the 0-axis, and SMA has a slightly downward trend, but there is still little reference significance.
Intraday trading: buy low and sell high. If it surges to the focused range of 1,940-1,945, the aggressive can try to go short with small positions, with a stop loss of 1,950 and a take profit of 1,930.If it falls back to 1,930, you can try to go long with small positions, with a take profit at 1,945 and a stop loss at 1,919. Please note that when going short, be sure to give it a try with small positions only and narrow the stop loss. Do not buy in a bullish market or sell ina bearish market.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Long
Entry price: 1930
Target price: 1945
Stop loss: 1918
Support: 1930.000, 1919.000
Resistance: 1940.000, 1950.000
