Chapter 6 May 19th: Stacking up Dismal Kansas Wheat Tour Forecast Against History, USDA
Top U.S. winter wheat grower Kansas is having a nightmare season amid exceptional drought, and the annual Wheat Quality Council tour confirmed that Thursday, issuing its lowest winter wheat yield estimate since at least 2000.
However, U.S. government forecasts typically have an edge over those from the tour at this point in the year.
This year's heavily watched tour estimated the Kansas winter wheat yield at 30 bushels per acre, well below the five-year tour average of 45.6 but slightly above the U.S. Department of Agriculture's week-ago estimate of 29 bushels per acre.
The Kansas wheat tour and its findings always prompt these questions: How does the tour yield compare with USDA's May forecast? How does the tour yield compare with final? How does USDA's May forecast compare with the final? Is USDA or the tour closer to the final in May?
USDA May versus tour stands out most. Since 2005 and including 2023, USDA's May estimate for Kansas winter wheat yield was lower than the tour yield in all but three years: 2010, 2018 and 2019.
USDA and the tour came up with the same yield in May 2018. USDA was only slightly higher than the tour in the other years, the largest margin being 2019's 4%. But USDA's margins to the downside were almost always bigger, the largest coming in 2021, when its May yield was 17% lower than the tour's.
Before 2021, the tour was always held before USDA's May report, but it now takes place after. The fact there was a huge difference between USDA and the tour in May 2021 suggests USDA's forecast might not bias the scouts. But it is something to consider going forward.
Compared with final Kansas winter wheat yields, the tour yields have been streaky. Final yield has landed below the tour forecast for the last two years, but it came in higher in the previous five years. Between 2011 and 2014, final yield was lower than the tour.
Final Kansas wheat yield has come in higher than USDA's May forecast in 11 of the last 15 years. That analysis includes 2020, but USDA's 2020 estimates are not being compared with the tour, which was cancelled that year.
In the 22 tours between 2000 and 2022, the tour yield was closer to the final than USDA's May estimate only seven times, most recently in 2015, 2016 and 2017. The other four instances were 2000, 2002, 2004 and 2009.
A connection among those years is not immediately clear. Winter wheat yield in Kansas was about 17% below the long-term trend in both 2015 and 2002, though 2016 featured a yield 27% above trend and 2017 was 6% above.
USDA's May 2023 estimate would put Kansas winter wheat yield 39% below trend, the worst in at least four decades but comparable to 37% below in 2014. Only 10% of Kansas wheat was considered good or excellent as of Sunday, tied for the worst rating for any week since 1989.
USDA last week pegged the 2023 Kansas winter wheat crop at 191.4 million bushels, the state's smallest since 1963 despite an 11% increase on the year in plantings to a seven-year high. Farmers are seen harvesting only 81% of those for grain, the lowest fraction since 1996.
Source: Reuters
