#Financial Theory

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In trading, should you take your intuition into account in addition to the rules?

little observer
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How can I have the ability to make stable profits?

jun hao
After 7 years of currency speculation, from a loss of 300,000 to now being able to make a stable profit (at least without a big loss), I think I am still somewhat qualified to answer this question. When I first graduated, I followed the brother of the internship company. At the beginning, I followed him, and he didn’t cheat me. He let me do Xiaocang, but because I made a little profit later, I couldn’t help thinking that I had grown up. Temptation started to do it alone, just once, the first time I did it alone, the principal of 10,000 was blown out. Later, after I got out of that company, I began to look for a job honestly. I also listened to my family's persuasion and dared not touch this thing again. If I lost money before, I should take it as a lesson. But because the university is not very good, the job has not improved much, but after a year, the leader appreciates and raises the salary, and I have some savings. With the help of my parents, I plan to buy a house. But then I saw that senior brother posted a currency-related advertisement in Moments. He had already bought a house and got married in a first-tier city at that time, so he started to be moved again, but he didn’t dare to move with his parents’ money at the time, so he used himself as the number. I don’t have a lot of savings, I slowly invest in them little by little, and they are all small accounts of one or two thousand dollars, and countless explosions... In the end, my savings were wiped out, and I used 2 credit cards to continue to explode and move Brick pays back the money. It went on like this for 2.3 years, and I started to earn extra money by myself, and I also had a small income. My parents began to urge marriage and buy a house. I thought life would be easier, but who knew it would be the beginning of the tragedy. At that time, more than 200,000 yuan went in, and I also lost the money for marrying my wife. Not only that, but my health also deteriorated, and I even had trouble with my girlfriend (here, I would like to thank my girlfriend for being so close to me at the time. Give up, thank you for not breaking up), that is, all the despair you can think of in life exploded at that time. Later, I resigned and thought about it seriously for 2 months. I really kept thinking about this matter. Why did I keep losing money? Is this industry worth it for me to continue? Give me another chance, can I still win back? How can I get it back? Even in those 2 months, I went to my senior brother to stay for a week, and really stayed there for 1 whole week. At that time, I didn’t make orders, I just watched him do it. I found that he made orders at 2 o’clock: not easy to place Order, no heavy position. Later, when I went back, I thought about these two points carefully, and I started to log in again. After all, in the past few years, I had the skills I should have, and I also had the sense of disk, but I lacked methods and guidance. At that time, I bought 1 lot of US dollars and only traded in gold. I could earn 1,000 US dollars a day, and I would stop if I made it; In this way, at that time, I was able to make a stable profit in a month, basically earning 20,000 US dollars a month. So do you really need any ability? I personally don’t think so. On the one hand, you have to find out your own reasons. If there are people around you who are successful in currency, you must approach them more. Don’t always listen to those methodologies on the Internet. You often think that you need a strong ability , In fact, it may be as simple as managing your own position and stop loss. There is also the mentality. In recent years, what I have felt the most is the doubts from my family, and when I am down, if you really need to borrow money to speculate in currency, can you hold back your face and withstand such pressure? Of course, if you can bear all these, there must be a rainbow after the storm. PS: I do not advocate letting everyone borrow money to speculate in currencies!
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If you want to make money in trading, what principles do you need to understand?

小赵论金
Let me tell you my opinion: 1. The position should be reasonable. The size of the position directly determines your performance. The lower limit of the position should be large enough to at least be worth your time cost and energy invested. If the position is too small, it is a waste of life. The upper limit of the position should be small enough, and the continuous loss should be considered first. Any strategy requires the law of large numbers to play a role, and the number of transactions must be large enough, and the potential number of consecutive losses limits the upper limit of the position. If your position is so heavy that you can only lose 3 times in a row, you may fall before the law of large numbers comes into play. Secondly, the position should not exert too much pressure on the psychology. If the position is so heavy that you can’t even bear the normal reverse fluctuations, then you might fall into the trap of “entering the market with a heavy position → taking the initiative to stop the loss → distressed → delusional to return the capital once → entering the market with a heavy position → taking the initiative to stop the loss” . 2. The stop loss is used just in case, not just waiting to be knocked out by the market, the market eats your stop loss money. A strict stop loss position can be placed after the transaction-intensive area, but if the microscopic pattern has gone bad, you must leave the market immediately, and it is easy to get it back if you look back. 3. The entry position is very important. When the trend is clear, the entry position will be very poor. If you enter at this time, a pullback will catch you. Only enter tentatively when the trend is ambiguous, and if you see it right, you will have a floating profit as a buffer, and the psychological pressure will be much less. 4. Make yourself avoid heavy positions and floating losses forever. Heavy positions and floating losses are like being bitten by an arm by a crocodile. Do you stand still or survive with a broken arm? Stiff hard, you may lose your head; survive with a broken arm, the arm just disappears; either result is unacceptable. No one on this planet can guide you to make the best decision right now, not even Soros Buffett. What we can do is to take light positions and cut them when we lose money, so as to avoid heavy positions and floating losses forever. 5. Try not to do data release instant market, especially non-agricultural. The volatility, point difference, and delay at the moment of data release killed countless people. But before and after the data are rare time to make money. When the data is released, make a cup of tea in peace and don't even look at the market. After 30 minutes, the regularity comes up and the momentum is still there. This is the best time to pick up money.
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Can you share your entry experience or trading experience?

tsing yi swordsman
If you want to talk about the experience of entering the industry, would you believe me if I said that I was tricked into it by a friend? Back then, I was also an honest and responsible person in a professional class. My friend said, come on, do finance with me. There is a lot of money in this industry, and it depends on whether you have the ability to earn it. So I thought, no matter what I do, it’s not bad, what’s the big deal, fuck him!! So I entered this industry that is as deep as the sea. I have been in this industry for more than ten years, and the journey has been bumpy, bumpy, and bumpy. Fortunately, buddy, I have survived until now. As for trading experience, from personal experience, the most important thing is not the trading system, but the execution ability. Of course, some people say trading philosophy, trading risk control and so on. But I personally feel that these things are included in the trading system. To measure the quality of a trading system, that is whether it can make stable profits. But we must know that no matter how good the trading system is, no matter how bad the trading strategy is, it must be put into the market in the end, otherwise it will be a decoration, which will not produce any economic benefits. As long as your trading system is going to be put into actual market combat, most of the final executors may be humans, and a small number of people will write the mature trading system as EA, perform mechanized operations, and strive to make money like fools. As long as people are operating, the final decision is execution. My trading experience is whether the execution can be done well. In many cases, the weakness of human nature will become a fetter in the transaction process, such as people's pursuit of advantages and avoiding disadvantages, such as fear and greed, etc. If the execution is not in place, how to overcome these weaknesses of human nature? How can we implement strict entry and exit rules if we can't customer service the weakness of human nature? Without strict entry and exit rules, how can you make big profits, small losses and stable profits? For example, after someone makes an order, he sets a stop loss. When the floating loss is about to reach the stop loss position, he always fantasizes that his direction is correct, so he adjusts the stop loss position again and again, and finally reaches nowhere. adjusted. This is a typical manifestation of poor execution. Obviously he was wrong, but he still refused to admit his mistake. Therefore, in the foreign exchange market, without strict execution, everything is floating clouds.
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Those who only look at naked K are the main force advocating "indicators are useless". Isn't naked K itself a price indicator?

银河补习班
Naked K, also known as price action trading. Technically, it mainly analyzes the K-line signal, shape, support/pressure, and price movement speed. It is necessary to subjectively judge whether the price is in a trend or in a shock, so as to adopt different strategies. Therefore, real naked Krs will not advocate "the theory that indicators are useless". Because even naked K still needs the help of tools (not indicators, but tools). Those who advocate the theory that indicators are useless, I say arrogantly, have only learned the bare bones. The price action trading method is a subjective trading method, and the risks and benefits are largely determined by the individual's level and status. Unlike mechanical trading systems, signals and trading methods are clearly regulated. For most traders, mechanical systems trading has a greater probability of success than price action trading. Moreover, naked K can actually use indicators, of course, it can also not be used, this depends entirely on personal preference. But there is one point, the priority of the K line is higher than the indicator. Because other indicators are also based on the K-line and the relationship between volume and price, this is the essence. The essence is understood, and other bells and whistles are unnecessary. All trading methods do not have the function of accurately predicting the future, but are based on the past to make the best solution in the present. Different routes lead to the same goal, as long as the profit-loss ratio and winning rate are appropriate, there is no one method is better, only one method is more suitable for your own problems. Now let me use RSI technology to trade, and I can also make a profit. Using Fibonacci, I can also know the most likely direction of future prices and the opportunity to enter the market. Naked K is just useful priority, not exclusive, which is very important. In the world of trading, you will see that some people speculate on orders, some look at time-sharing charts, some use moving averages, some only look at handicap, some rely on fundamental analysis, some use naked K, some use trend lines, and some only look at Numbers... The Eight Immortals cross the sea each show their supernatural powers. There is no distinction between high and low in all these techniques. Each has its own strengths and weaknesses. And naked K is just one of the technical tools, don't think too mysteriously, and don't think it's too grand.
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Why do some traders move the stop loss to the cost line soon after the floating profit of the order?

berlin in the distant mountains
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In recent years, many people have become popular to use entanglement theory for transactions. Is entanglement theory too mythical?

缠中狩猎
Undoubtedly, Entanglement Theory is an excellent trading technical analysis theory, but it is not only technical analysis, but also includes all aspects of trading. ​ Is entanglement difficult to understand? The core of Entanglement Theory is ideas and methods. I find it difficult to get caught up in the details of the paragraphs and get entangled. Let's not talk about the more than a thousand articles written by Mr. Tang in the broad sense, just talk about the 108 lessons on stock trading in the narrow sense, which are also comprehensive and organized, including ideas, techniques, mentality and other aspects of trading. Lessons 1 to 10 are the explanations of trading concepts, which are the core of the core. These contents are not difficult to understand. What is difficult is the unity of knowledge and action, and the implementation of the concept in strict accordance with the concept. From the 11th to 16th lessons, through the moving averages that everyone is accustomed to, with a new perspective of the moving average system, he guides everyone to classify and introduce buying and selling points through simple techniques, which is enough to form a complete trading system. Lessons 17-21 systematically explain the classification of Tanglun trends and the definition of buying and selling points, which are the core of Tanglun technical analysis. In the follow-up courses, there will be further in-depth detailed analysis of lessons 17~21: including trend divergence analysis, classification of buying and selling points, interval method, trend decomposition, operation at the same level, small to large response, etc.; The details of the A0 initialization function are polished, which is the continuous improvement and perfection process of Tanglun's pen and paragraph. The last 20 lessons return to the essence, echoing at the end, analyzing and explaining from the aspects of trading psychology and mentality, and clearing up the source. Objectively speaking, it is indeed difficult to talk about the theory of entanglement. However, the mastery of any theory requires hard work, and there are no simple things in the market. Fortunately, with a patient and knowledgeable teacher like Master Cheng leading the way, we should be content.
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What will be the result of a stable and profitable trader if he discloses his trading system?

the most romantic thing
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Is the entry and exit of the short-term trading system contradictory to "letting profits run"?

have you learned the lesson?
In fact, spears are not contradictory, just look at your trading logic. First of all, it shows that the trend trading logic of cutting losses and letting profits run is no problem. If the core logic of your strategy does not match this, then you have to reflect on whether your strategy is right or not. It is also worth talking about what is short-term, is the short-term trading logic just to run fast? First of all, let me talk about what is short-term and what is mid-line. We must first figure out this point. In my opinion, these short-term or mid-term statements are of little significance. If you are doing small-cycle operations and keep making profits for a week, is this considered short-term or mid-term? If you enter the market on the same day as the daily line cycle, is this considered a short-term or a mid-term? I think people who don't understand are confused. Therefore, short-term, mid-term or long-term can be regarded as the result of trading positions, and there is no need to classify yourself deliberately. Let's just look at the cycle directly. Is the subject of the topic a small-cycle operation or a large-cycle operation? Since the subject of the topic said that it is short-term, then I blindly guess that you are operating in a small cycle. If it is a small cycle operation, such as a 1 hour cycle. Then the trend follows the transaction, and it is no problem to let the profit run. However, it should be noted that small-cycle operations have a high probability of becoming swing trading. Then it is difficult to have a large profit margin. Due to the need for a high profit-loss ratio, we can only use a small stop loss. For a small profit margin, only a small stop loss can be used, so as to ensure a high profit-loss ratio. Finally, the trend order profit can cover the previous trial and error costs. There is another problem here, that is, the random volatility of small periods is relatively strong, that is, the stability is relatively poor, and the cost of trial and error will be relatively high. The result may be that it becomes more difficult for the account to be profitable overall. So to sum up , if you want to make your account stable and profitable for a long time relatively easily, then you need to enlarge your trading cycle, such as the daily cycle. The benefits of large-cycle operations are obvious when compared: The cycle is large and the profit target space is large, The stop loss space is correspondingly large, and the fault tolerance rate is high. The market price trend is stable and relatively high. So deduced down, there is nothing to be confused about. From the questions, it can be seen that the subject’s trading knowledge is still relatively lacking. If he really wants to go far in trading, he still needs to learn more, think more, and summarize more.
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Why do most trend trading systems have a win rate of less than 50%?

lectures at hanlin academy
1. Chasing ups and downs Trend trading does not care about chasing ups and downs, because there are higher highs and lower lows in the trend market. Positions that follow the trend can always be profitable as long as you wait patiently for the development of the trend. But if you don’t pay attention to the timing of buying and selling, enter the market at the top or bottom in the short term, and then the price retreats, and the position is locked; it will not only affect the mood and make the mentality unbalanced; it will also be a heavy blow to the confidence of holding positions. Short-term tops and bottoms are generally caused by the collective buying and selling of the masses. Generally, when the trading volume suddenly increases, it means that the masses blindly follow the trend and enter the market. At this time, it is often at the cusp of some short-term speculative funds to make profits and close positions. Then the buying or selling orders of the masses are exhausted, and the price naturally retreats. A good buying point or selling point should be established at the low point of the sharp drop in the upward trend, and short at the high point of the rebound in the downward trend, and pay attention to the 50% retracement of a trend market. There are also many trends that are often arranged in a sideways manner when they are strong. When the sideways arrangement reaches an important average line position, it is also a good point to open a position when encountering the support or resistance of the average line. In addition, when the overbought and oversold values ​​are extreme, do not enter the market if the distance from the moving average is too far. Generally, there will be a finishing process that moves closer to the moving average. Almost all losses are related to two points, that is, "can't see the trend clearly, and can't hold the position". I personally think that solving these two points is the right direction for the success of the transaction. I suggest that traders should record the trades that lose money, analyze what went wrong, and classify the losses, so as to know that "you will die there, and then never go to that place." 2. The trend market is too short or a false breakthrough The trend market is too short. It should be said that in most cases, this is a retracement wash market in a higher-level upward trend; , is a false breakthrough. Regardless of the situation, it can be said that it is a good time to establish a reverse position, and it can even be used as an indicator to establish a reverse position to make a profit. However, in terms of trading techniques, stop loss is required to be firm and decisive, to respond quickly, and to set support and resistance levels clearly and effectively. In essence, a false breakthrough, a false trend in which the market is too short, is precisely because you are operating against the market in a higher-level trend, then the opposite direction is correct. False breakthroughs and false trends point out the correct direction of the market. 3. Appearing too early Did not hold on to profitable positions. The second kind of loss is not a loss, but only making small profits in a round of big market trends with obvious trends is an important reason for the overall account loss. In the process of trend development, as long as the trend starts to move in one direction, the most likely direction of the trend is still to move in this direction, which is the direction of least resistance. Here, mental issues and discipline are key. If you want to secure a profitable trend position, you should have several disciplines and a good attitude: 1. Don't try to buy low and sell high for small fluctuations in the trend. This method often results in making many small sums of money and losing a large sum of money. 2. Don't try to catch the top and bottom, close the position after the trend has clearly reversed, give up 10%-20% of the profit after the trend band, and establish a new trend direction position. 3. Having confidence in the trend means having confidence in your own judgment, which is very important. How many times have we held the entire trend market while watching the market every day? Many people closed their positions early when the trend had just started and made some small profits. It is more important to hold the position than to judge correctly. Perhaps the best way is not to keep a close eye on the market and stay away from the market. Facts have proved that ostrich tactics on trend positions are often successful. Therefore, stay away from the market. The nervousness and fear of loss caused by staring at the ups and downs of prices every day will make you have the urge to quickly close your position and pocket your pockets in pursuit of psychological comfort and security, resulting in premature loss of favorable positions Leave the field. 4. Buy the bottom and sell the top against the market The first type of operation against the market is to buy the bottom and sell the top, which is the reason why most people lose money. In an obvious downward trend, you constantly think that the price is too low and buy cheap goods, or feel that the price has fallen too deep and rush to rebound; in an obvious upward trend, you constantly think that the price is too high and sell, or feel that the rise is too fast Go short; these are extremely risky trading techniques and habits. Buying the bottom and selling the top is only effective in a sideways market, but even so, small funds and retail investors should not short when it is rising sharply or buy when it is falling sharply, but should wait for the price to rise to an obvious resistance level Short when the market is weak, or buy when it falls to an obvious support level and shows strength. This is the safe way. If you operate with the trend, then you are most likely to be right countless times and make one mistake, only at the turning point; but if you operate against the market, then you are likely to be wrong countless times and get right once. In view of this, the correct method should be to give up the first 10% or even 20% of the profits, and pursue stable and reliable profits along the trend; that is to say, one must wait until the trend is established before entering the market. This kind of profit will be less than that of the so-called masters who occasionally copy the bottom and sell the top, but it is indeed the most long-term stable profit. Many people have suggested to me that it is difficult to see the direction of the trend. In fact, the definition of a trend is very simple and clear. An uptrend is a price trend in which the high and low points are constantly increasing, and a downward trend is a price trend in which the high and low points are constantly increasing. If you can ignore Small fluctuations and noise, in most cases, as long as you want to see, the market trend is very clear up, down, and sideways. The reason why the trend cannot be seen clearly is probably because the observed time dimension is too short. For example, if you look at the 5-minute K-line, if you look at the daily K-line and weekly K-line, the trend is often clear at a glance. 5. Homeopathic positions were washed The trend market will have a normal retracement arrangement. The coping strategy is to set the stop loss point and profit stop point according to the definition of the trend, and continuously increase the stop profit point during the development of the trend until the reversal cuts out the profitable position. But sometimes there will be an excessive retracement in the market to exit your position, and then the market will return to the original trend. This situation often happens. After all, the market will not be as perfect as a mathematical formula. In this case, our strategy is to exit the market strictly according to the stop loss and take profit point and then re-enter the market again, and don't care about going long at a higher price or shorting at a lower price. Financial transactions must overcome the weakness of human nature, hope, fear, regret, self-esteem and other emotions that hinder you from making profits in the market. Selling at 10 yuan and buying it back at 12 yuan is very psychological for many people. It's hard to accept, but if you don't, you may miss a large period of trending market. On the whole, it is often inevitable to be washed out. However, how to deal with stop-profit and stop-loss is the key to deal with it. It proves that the position in the adverse market should be closed as soon as possible, and after being washed out and the price returns to the original trend, it should be re-entered.
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Can reading thousands of books really make you trade successfully?

connotation jokes tv
Thanks Qing for the invitation. Reading is a very good habit, and it is an effective step that can make us progress and slowly step into a higher level, but how to read? How to study? Only then will it be effective, which is the key we need to discuss. The first step is to let reading and experience go hand in hand. The ancients said that reading thousands of books is not as good as traveling thousands of miles. In fact, the inner meaning of this sentence does not mean that it is better for you to walk more than to read books, but to tell you that sometimes you need a certain experience to understand the true meaning of the book. Many people nowadays hate poisonous chicken soup, thinking that these chicken soups are useless. I know the way, but I still can't live a good life. But are inspirational words really useless? This depends on your experience. Some people have no feeling for some words, but some people immediately burst into tears when they see these words. Why? Because what was written in the book hit a certain period of his experience, thus deepening his impression and motivating himself. The same is true in trading. Let me give you an example. I believe everyone has heard of the book "Memoirs of a Stock Operator". After reading it, I learned almost nothing from it, I think it's just a Livermore trade biography, a novel. What I have a slight impression of the opposite is only the plot of his failure and rise, nothing else. At that time, I thought this was also a god book in the trading world? During this period, I was still trading, and of course I was reading other books. When I read Qingze’s "A Dream in Ten Years", Qingze spoke highly of the memoirs of a stock operator, and took out the book He made some explanations for some of his points of view. At that time, I read this book, why didn’t I have any impression at all, and then this part of his explanation talked about the news that Livermore let the cotton king at that time in the cotton market, It led to a rout, which directly hit my experience, because my trading level was very poor at that time, so I searched for news everywhere, and then lost money. Later, when I read Liu Qiang's "Futures Operator's Wind and Cloud Records", the second half of it was a detailed analysis of the memoirs of a stock operator. It talked about taking strong stocks if you want, because the trend is very powerful. It was a miserable job of hunting the bottom and finding the top, and then he said that you should not get off easily when you get a strong stock, because if you go down, you will not be able to get back up. My experience has been hit again and again. Then I re-read "Memoirs of a Stock Operator" and found many things that I didn't notice the first time. It is really a magical book. Therefore, reading can change us, but at the same time, we have to experience more and hone more in the market. Second, don't read too much across the board. We have been told from our childhood transactions that you have to go back to addition, subtraction, multiplication and division first, and then slowly learn simple functions, until you get to advanced mathematics in college. This is done step by step. The same is true for reading. You need to improve your level step by step and improve your cognition. If you want to read a high-level book at once, you will not be able to understand many links. There is a sense of repulsion. For example, the book "Trading for a Living" mentions the application of many indicators. This book is a good book explaining the advanced application of indicators, but many people feel sleepy after reading it. Why, because the basic I don't understand algorithms, and I can't read this book at all, so I should read Murphy's "Technical Analysis of Futures Market" first, which is the big blue book. Only by having a preliminary understanding of all indicators can we move forward. Some people just read some books on trading psychology and trading mentality. You haven’t even built your own trading system. The mentality is so good, the technology is poor, can you make money? Therefore, we must first give ourselves a clear positioning, let ourselves move forward step by step, and truly understand, it is our own, and there are no castles in the air. Third, we must learn more in the process of reading. Still take the book as an example, "Turtle Trading Rules" is a book that I recommend in many articles. I believe many people have heard of this book. In fact, the essence of this book is to talk about a trend trading system. One page can be written, but why does the author use a book to write? This needs to be comprehended in the process of reading. The author wrote in such detail because he explained all the details of this trading system, including the process of how to build it, and even where the shortcomings of this system are, and how to read it during the unfavorable period. But, it's all said. If we understand it in detail, it will be of great help to build a trading system for ourselves. Fourth, when our cognition improves, we must have the ability to identify bad books. There is only so much human time, so we shouldn't waste our experience on some bad works. Since we want to be efficient, we have to spend our time wisely. Therefore, when we read books, we must also develop our own ability to identify. When we read a lot and have rich experience, although we may not be able to achieve the ability to write and publish books, we should have the ability to identify bad books. Our own cognition is already obvious. It is higher than the content of the book, or the person who wrote the book is someone with ulterior motives. We must eliminate him, so we should stop wasting time on it. We have more important things to do. Reading has been a good habit since ancient times, but now the Internet is too developed. The advantage is that there are rich channels for knowledge acquisition, but the disadvantage is that the voice is too noisy. Good reading, reading good books, has always been a good channel for ordinary people to grow. Are you satisfied with this answer?
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What are the requirements to be able to engage in professional trading?

南柯一梦
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