Chapter 3  从震荡指标、动量指标看趋势

指标可分为两种类型:先行指标(又称“震荡指标”)和滞后指标(又称“动量指标”)。先行指标在新的趋势或反转形态发生之前发出信号;而滞后指标则在趋势开始之后发出信号,它通常是提醒你:趋势已经开始了,你正错过交易的最佳时机。

按正常理解,要想实现盈利最大化,先行指标是最佳选择。的确!通过先行指标,本来应该可以在每一次交易中捕捉到整个趋势的交易机会,但前提是,先行指标每次所发出的信号都是正确的,而事实却并非如此!在使用先行指标时,将会遇到众多的虚假信号,而这些信号最终也将误导交易。

另一种选择是使用滞后指标,它只是在价格清晰的形成趋势后发出交易信号,不会轻易发出虚假信号。不足之处在于,入场时机可能有些晚。

在利用这些指标指导交易的时候,尽管它们能够取长补短,但两类指标之间却很可能是互相冲突的。并不是说,应该单独使用一种或另一种指标,但是应该理解每种指标的潜在不足之处。

先行指标(震荡指标)

震荡指标的表现形式是这个指标值在设定的水平值之间或围绕一个中心线上下波动的指标。RSI指标、抛物转向指标和随机指标都是震荡指标。每种指标都可能发出潜在的反转信号,而这有可能预示着之前趋势的终结以及价格运行方向的改变。

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