Chapter 2  斐波那契回撤

通常,市场既不会直线上升,也不会竖直跌落,而是进两步退一步。在当前趋势继续发展前,市场通常要先对已经形成的上涨进程或下跌进程作一定程度的回撤,就是斐波那契回撤,即斐波那契百分比回撤水平,一般简称Fib。

在每次大的市场运动之后,价格总要有所回撤,然后再继续原先的趋势运动。如:市场处于上升趋势,从100的水平上升到200,接下来的调整常常是回撤到这个运动的一半,大概150的水平。价格趋势一般可分为三等份,通常最小的回撤大约是38%,最大的回撤约为62%,较为常用的是50%回撤水平,即斐波那契回撤水平。

在一个强劲趋势的调整过程中,市场通常回到原先运动的大约三分之一处。约三分之二的回撤区间是特别关键的区域,如果价格调整超过了该位置,那么有可能会出现大势反转。

斐波那契回撤-Pic no.1

6.2.1 上升趋势中常用的百分比回撤水平

斐波那契回撤-Pic no.2

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