Chapter 38  06/30 CRUDE 70关口持续施压,测试年内低位风险犹存

上方阻力参考: 70.00、73.90、76.20

下方支持参考: 67.82、65.00、62.30

日线图看,摩通研报预测原油需求远未见顶,油价固守美国库存锐减后的涨幅。不过市场一度击穿70关口(接近去年低点)关口后依然落于该位下方,凸显阻力顽固。若始终无法站上,美油恐重新向67.82(2021年12月高位)下方一线寻底。该位再失,短线或将迸发强劲下行动能,并将很快滑向65一带的年内低点,该位也是中期内多方最后防线,再破将重启始自去年8月的宽幅缓慢下行通道中跌势。指标方面,MACD快慢线继续于零轴下方纠缠;RSI在弱势区横向波动,提示油价不改弱势震荡格局。

06/30 CRUDE 70关口持续施压,测试年内低位风险犹存-Pic no.1

4小时图看,油价本周数次受限于70关口下方,该位也是最近两个月油价宽幅震荡的价格中枢。唯有站上以缓和市场下测年内低点区域的风险。然而进入箱体高段后,上行将紧接着遭遇轮番强阻:4月低点、也是箱顶强阻73.90,4月OPEC+突袭减产造成的大型缺口一带(包含3月1日低点76.20,以及2月14日低点77.70等阻力)预计均抛压沉重。指标方面,MACD快线即将收复零轴;RSI步入强势区后横向走平,提示市场短线处在牛熊转换的关键节点。

文章来源:FXTM富拓

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