Chapter 28  06/21 CRUDE 回踩70关口不破,保留挑战顽阻希冀

上方阻力参考: 73.90、76.20、77.70

下方支持参考: 70.00、67.82、65.00

日线图看,需求担忧和伊、俄出口超供压力持续施压油价。不过美油回落在70关口(接近去年低点)受到一定买盘承接,只要该位不破,则多方仍有蓄势冲击上方连番阻力的机会:73(汇聚了1-2月多个重要低位)- 4月低点73.90一带,中期平缓下行通道上轨,以及4月OPEC+突袭减产造成的大型缺口均有顽阻守候。指标方面,MACD在零轴下方金叉后缓涨,RSI回升至中性水平后走稳,市场尚未打破短期弱均衡格局。

06/21 CRUDE 回踩70关口不破,保留挑战顽阻希冀-Pic no.1

4小时图看,油价在固守70整数关,同时有望打造即期波段的“更高低点”。不过整体格局仍远未摆脱2021年12月高位67.82至73.90的持续一个半月的横向箱体。若70关口不保,油价将极易滑向箱体下限,跌破则空方将顺势下测65下方的年内低点,该位也是多方中期内的终极防线。更多支撑可看2021年12月低点62.30,以及60整数关。指标方面,MACD在零轴上方形成死叉,但并未第一时间扩大跌势;RSI震荡下行接近中性水平,提示油价存在一定冲高遇阻风险。

文章来源:FXTM富拓

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