Chapter 18  06/13 CRUDE 受供需层面双重压制,再度下看年内低位

上方阻力参考: 70.00、73.90、76.20

下方支持参考: 65.00、62.30、60.00

日线图看,受需求前景困扰和俄、伊朗石油供应超预期的双重压制,油价跌破70关口后持续滑落。若无法迅速收复2021年12月高位67.82,则美油将难免下测65下方的年内低点。中期走势来看,市场存在重启去年7月以来形成的平缓下行通道中跌势的风险。更多支撑指向2021年12月低点62.30及60.00整数关口。指标方面,MACD快慢线仍在零轴下方再度死叉,RSI持续于弱势区震荡且下行逼近超卖线,提示市场下行压力依然较重。

06/13 CRUDE 受供需层面双重压制,再度下看年内低位-Pic no.1

4小时图看,油价重心下移越发逼近一个多月来震荡下限,潜在反弹机会来看,多方至少需站回70关口上方以延续横向震荡的模式。随后在73(汇聚了1-2月多个重要低位)- 4月低点73.90将有更为严酷的抛压守候。而且即便站上,多方还将接连面对中期跌势通道上轨,以及4月OPEC+突袭减产后留下的巨大缺口:其间3月1日低点76.20,以及2月14日低点77.70料均有明显抛压。指标来看,MACD跌破零轴后加速下行;RSI跌破超卖线,凸显油价即期弱势。

文章来源:FXTM富拓


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