Chapter 16  05/19 CRUDE 暂未冲破下降常态,73一线抛压尤重

上方阻力参考: 73.00、76.20、77.70

下方支持参考: 70.00、67.82、65.00

日线图看,油市参与者的谨慎心态令油价无法完全固守上日债限谈判曙光引发的涨幅,且在面对1季度宽幅震荡区间箱底73.00顽阻时,多方底气不足而退守蓄势。潜在支撑来看,已突破的短期跌势上轨和70附近的去年一带将有买盘承接。跌破则市场将确认重返弱势,下行也将测试年内低位区域硬度:2021年12月高位67.82,年内低点65均为重要支撑点位。指标方面,MACD在零轴下方形成温和金叉;RSI反弹接近中性,但两项指标均已走平,提示反弹尚欠动力。

05/19 CRUDE 暂未冲破下降常态,73一线抛压尤重-Pic no.1

4小时图看,油价上破73.00至73.81(5月10日高点)阻力区的尝试暂时受抑,但短期波段“第二支牛角”的打造尚未破产。若破本月高点,则将基于5月4日金针探底的低位K线构筑上升常态。随后将进一步上看大型缺口中3月1日低点76.20及2月14日低点77.70等阻力。再往上,80一线的4月上旬关键低位区料有沉重抛压。指标方面,MACD在零轴上方走平;RSI自接近超买线回撤,呈现市场反弹受制的过程。

文章来源:FXTM富拓

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