Chapter 26  05/12 CRUDE 无力冲击双重强阻,70若失恐重启跌势

上方阻力参考: 73.00、76.20、77.70

下方支持参考: 70.00、67.82、65.00

日线图看,经济前景担忧加重市场避险情绪,油价隔夜显著回落。美油受制于4月中旬来形成的短期跌势阻力线,同时1季度宽幅震荡区间箱底73.00亦有沉重抛压。后续支撑来看,一旦70一线的去年低点依然不保,市场恐将重回弱势。下方2021年12月高位区域67.82,年内低点65亦为重要支撑参考;价格的持续下行也将逐渐冲淡构筑双底的可能。指标方面,MACD快慢线在零轴下方依然纠结;RSI在弱势区震荡,提示市场短线反抽尚未扭转疲弱趋势。

05/12 CRUDE 无力冲击双重强阻,70若失恐重启跌势-Pic no.1

4小时图看,油价上周金针探底止跌回升,但面对上述双重强阻尚显动能不足,存在形成波段更低高点的风险。多方亟需依托一度上破的跌势阻力线再起攻势,收复73一线后方才有望先后挑战缺口中的3月1日低点76.20,以及2月14日低点77.70阻力。再往上,80附近的4月上旬关键低点料有重压。指标来看,MACD快慢线在零轴上方再度死叉,且快线再度下穿零轴;RSI震荡下行进入弱势区,均提示油价重返跌势的风险。

文章来源:FXTM富拓

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