Chapter 38  05/04 CRUDE 一度刷新年内低点,金针探底预示止跌?

上方阻力参考: 70.00、73.00、76.20

下方支持参考: 67.82、65.00、62.30

日线图看,经济衰退忧虑及需求表象的直接疲软加剧油价下行压力,4日早盘交易中一度刷新65下方的年内低点,随后空头回补力量涌现。走势来看,油价加速下行,令去年年中以来即形成的跌势通道依旧有效。后续下行风险来看,65.00跌破则将开启后续下行空间,2021年12月低点62.30,60整数关口,以及2021年3月低点57.29均为潜在支撑参考。指标方面,MACD快慢线双双下穿零轴;RSI下行触及超卖线,记录市场趋势转弱过程。

05/04 CRUDE 一度刷新年内低点,金针探底预示止跌?-Pic no.1

4小时图看,油价持续下行,但最新于65上方形成超长的“金针探底”形态,构成止跌信号。潜在反弹机会来看,多方首先需站上2021年12月高位区域67.82;随后先前很快失守的70附近的去年低点,以及1季度宽幅震荡区间箱底73.00转为阻力参考。再往上,短期跌势上轨压力线的收复将缓解下行压力,随后还将直面缺口中的3月1日低点76.20,以及2月14日低点77.70。指标方面,MACD在零轴下方加速下探;RSI深入超卖区,提示市场即期超跌风险。

文章来源:FXTM富拓

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