Chapter 22 Germany IFO Business Climate Index
Germany: The German IFO Business Climate Index Came Unexpectedly at 86.3 More than the Forecast at 85.0
Summary:
The EU economy showed some recovery versus major currencies after releasing the German IFO Business Climate Index data on 24-11-2022 at 1:00 PM (GMT +4) with an unexpected result of 86.3. EURUSD went up by 60 PIPS breaking the resistance level at 1.04000.
1. Fundamentals
The German released the IFO Business Climate Index report for November on November 24, 2022. The IFO Business Climate Index is one of the major monthly indicators that affect the market widely, it measures the expectations for the German business climate for the next 6 months, it is a composite index based on a survey of manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers. A higher-than-expected data is bullish for the EUR, and lower-than-expected data is bearish for the EUR. The data came out to be 86.3 rather than the forecasted result of 85.0 which was bullish for the EUR. Bulls interfered and the EUR showed some recovery from 1.03814 reaching 1.04482.
Gold has increased sharply from the $1722 to $1758 level breaking the resistance level, and it is expected to increase further in the upcoming days affected by world inflation, the interest rate in Europe, U.S – China tensions, and the overall world political situation.
Major traders are holding their positions on Gold for further increases in prices.
2. Technical Analysis
EURUSD Daily Chart
The daily EURUSD pattern shows a bullish engulfing with possible prices touching the 1.0440 level again.
Support and resistance:
1.0389
1.0372
1.0362
Pivot: 1.0399
1.0442
1.0426
1.0416
3. Trading Recommendations
High Probability Scenario:
Long Above: 1.04559
Resistance TP1: 1.05015
Resistance TP2: 1.05393
Alternative Scenario:
Short Below: 1.04147
Support TP1: 1.03706
Support TP2: 1.03201