Chapter 19  U.K Unemployment Rate Effect

U.K: U. K’s Unemployment rate came unexpected at 3.6% from a 3.5% Forecast

Summary:

The British economy showed some strength versus the U.S Dollar after releasing the U.K Unemployment rate data on 15-11-2022 at 11 AM (GMT +4) with an unexpected result of 3.6%. GBPUSD increased from 1.1789 to 1.1880, but is this increase because of the unemployment rate?

1. Fundamentals

The U.K released the Unemployment Rate report on November 15, 2022. The Unemployment rate is one of the major indicators that affect the market widely, it measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous three months. A higher-than-expected data is bearish for the Pound, and lower-than-expected data is bullish for the Pound. The data came out to be 3.6% rather than the forecasted result of 3.5% which is supposedly bullish for the Pound. However, GBPUSD increased widely after this indicator but not because of the employment rate, it is because of the dollar index dropping sharply thus increasing major currencies Vs the USD. Bulls interfered, and the U.K economy showed some growth where GBPUSD increased from 1.1789 to 1.1880.

Gold increased sharply to touch the $1785 an Ounce level before dropping back to $1774 level.

Major traders are holding their Gold positions for further price increases.

2. Technical Analysis

GBPUSD Daily Chart

U.K Unemployment Rate Effect-Pic no.1

The daily GBPUSD pattern shows a bullish engulfing with possible prices touching the 1.1900 level.

Support and resistance:

1.1858

1.1843

1.1831

Pivot: 1.1870

1.1912

1.1897

1.1885

3. Trading Recommendations

High Probability Scenario:

Long Above: 1.17880

Resistance TP1: 1.18107

Resistance TP2: 1.18350

Alternative Scenario:

Short Below: 1.17355

Support TP1: 1.17096

Support TP2: 1.16830

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