Chapter 18  Eurozone Industrial Output Effect

EU: September's Eurozone Industrial Output (MoM) came unexpected at 0.9% from a 0.3% Forecast

Summary:

The EU economy showed some weakness versus the U.S Dollar after releasing the Eurozone Industrial Output data on 14-11-2022 at 2 PM (GMT +4) with an unexpected result of 0.9%. EURUSD dropped from 1.0325 to 1.0280.

1. Fundamentals

The EU released the Eurozone Industrial Output MoM report in September on November 14, 2022. The Eurozone Industrial Output is one of the major indicators that affect the market widely, it measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities. A higher-than-expected data is bullish for the Euro, and lower-than-expected data is bearish for the Euro. The data came out to be 0.9%% rather than the forecasted result of 0.3% which is supposedly bullish for the Euro. However, EURUSD dropped widely after this indicator because of the drop from the previous level on MoM. Bears interfered, and the EU economy weakened where EURUSD decreased from 1.0325 to 1.0280.

Gold had nothing to do with this indicator as it stayed stable around $1755 an Ounce.

Major traders are holding their Gold positions for further price increases.

2. Technical Analysis

EURUSD Daily Chart

Eurozone Industrial Output Effect-Pic no.1

The daily EURUSD pattern shows a bullish engulfing with possible prices touching the 1.0370 level.

Support and resistance:

1.0282

1.0270

1.0252

Pivot: 1.0300

1.0342

1.0330

1.0312

3. Trading Recommendations

High Probability Scenario:

Long Above: 1.0342

Resistance TP1: 1.0376

Resistance TP2: 1.0420

Alternative Scenario:

Short Below: 1.0286

Support TP1: 1.0236

Support TP2: 1.0195

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