Chapter 15  CPI Effect 10-11-2022

U.S CPI: The U.S CPI is expected to Come at 8% & 0.2% Lower than the Previous Result at 8.2%

Summary:

The U.S economy will show strong volatility after releasing the CPI data on 10-11-2022 at 5:30 PM (GMT +4) with an expected result of 8%. If similar to expected, we might see a huge increase in gold prices and a major drop in DXY.


1. Fundamentals

The U.S CPI report for October will be released on November 10, 2022. The CPI is one of the major monthly indicators that affect the market widely, it measures the change in the price of goods from a consumer perspective, and it is a key to monitoring inflation. A higher-than-expected data is bullish for the dollar, and lower-than-expected data is bearish for the dollar. The data is expected to come out at 8% which is a drop of 0.2% from the previous result which was bullish for the dollar. If everything went as expected bears will interfere and a major drop in DXY will be noted.

Gold is expected to rise to the 1725-1730 level breaking the resistance level, but it is expected to recover in the upcoming days affected by the interest rate decision for December by the FOMC, the interest rate in Europe, U.S – China tensions, and the overall world political situation. In addition to the CPI, eyes and ears on the US midterm elections!

Major traders are holding their positions on Gold for further increases in the prices.

CPI Effect 10-11-2022-Pic no.1

CPI Chart

2. Technical Analysis

Gold Daily Chart

CPI Effect 10-11-2022-Pic no.2

The daily gold pattern shows a bullish engulfing with possible prices touching the 1730 level before bouncing down again.

Support and resistance:

1705.24

1702.42

1700.15

Pivot: 1707.51

1715.42

1712.60

1710.51

3. Trading Recommendations

High Probability Scenario:

Long Above: 1711.00

Resistance TP1: 1717.00

Resistance TP2: 1724.00

Alternative Scenario:

Short Below: 1704.00

Support TP1: 1697.00

Support TP2: 1690.00

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