EUR/USD: A Matter of Time & Bears Might be Trapped 15/09/2022

Chapter 11 EUR/USD: A Matter of Time & Bears Might be Trapped 15/09/2022

Summary:

Selling at the bottom might be a painful experience for EUR/USD traders. The EUR is expected to bounce back up due to the recovery plan that the central bank might launch soon, and the fundamentals in the upcoming weeks.

1. Fundamentals

Big Data will be released on the afternoon of September 15, 2022, with the initial jobless claims taking the lead. The initial jobless claims are expected to be released at 226K increasing from 222K from the previous result. A higher-than-expected result is considered bearish for the USD, thus driving the EUR/USD pair up. A lower-than-expected result is considered bullish for the USD, thus driving the EUR/USD pair down.

EUR/USD: A Matter of Time & Bears Might be Trapped 15/09/2022-Pic no.1

Last month, it was expected that the jobless claims to be at the 240K level, however, the actual result was surprisingly at the level of 222K which is bullish for the USD. From the graph above, it is crystal clear the drop in the EURUSD pair by almost 100 PIP is due to this surprising event. Governments, traders, and banks are waiting patiently for this data to be released as it has a big impact on the market and might issue the direction of this month’s trend.

In addition to the jobless claims, another important fundamental will be released as well at 4:30 PM (GMT +4) which is the “Core Retails Sales”. This indicator is expected to be bearish for the USD as well at a 0.1% level. The whole market and indicators is showing a strong bullish trend in the near future for the EUR/USD pair, and traders might be careful and take a look at the indicators before digging in.

1. Technical Analysis

EURUSD Weekly Chart

EUR/USD: A Matter of Time & Bears Might be Trapped 15/09/2022-Pic no.2