Chapter 11  September 25th Financial News

[Quick Facts]

1. Biden urges Republicans to live up to the budget deal.

2. French center-right keeps majority in Senate re-election.

3. U.S. poll: Biden's disapproval rating hits the highest level during his term.

4. Britain plans to lower inheritance tax.

5. U.S. Republicans discuss revising a temporary funding bill, with a duration of 14 to 60 days extended from 30 days.

6. Collins expects rates to stay higher and for longer than previous projections.

7. Fed's Bowman favors raising rates again, probably more than once.

8. Fed's Daly says more patience is needed for the policy path.

[News Details]

Biden urges Republicans to live up to the budget deal

The deal reached between congressional Republican leadership and the administration in May would have funded essential domestic and national security priorities and still cut the budget deficit by $1 trillion over the next 10 years, U.S. President Joe Biden said in a speech on Saturday. But now there's a small group of extreme Republicans who don't want to honor the deal.

A shutdown would harm food safety, cancer research, and children's programs, Biden said. Republicans need to take immediate steps to prevent a government shutdown ahead of a Sept. 30 deadline.

French center-right keeps majority in Senate re-election

On Sept. 24, local time, the French Senate (the upper house of the French Parliament) re-elected about half of its seats. According to results announced in each constituency, the center-right camp maintains its majority status in the Senate. Prior to the election, the right-wing Republican party was the top party in the Senate, and together with the center, it formed the majority in the Senate. The results of the reelection "reinforce the senatorial majority of the right and the center." The left-wing party in the Senate re-election gained more seats, the far-right party returned to the Senate.

U.S. poll: Biden's disapproval rating hits the highest level during his term

NBC News released the results of an opinion poll, in which 56% of respondents, the highest level during Biden's term, said they did not support Biden's re-election to the presidency, according to "The Hill" reported on Sept. 24 local time. In addition, the survey results showed that Biden's approval rate was 41%, falling from previous figures. Among them, the approval rate of voters aged 18 to 24 was 46%, Latino voters 43%, and independent voters 36%.

Britain plans to lower inheritance tax

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak plans to cut the country's inheritance tax in an effort to win support ahead of the next general election, the Times reported. Negotiations over the tax are taking place at the highest levels of government, and Sunak could announce the plan before next month's Conservative Party conference. The U.K. currently carries out an inheritance tax rate of 40%, with inheritance tax being introduced on the total value of an individual's estate exceeding 325,000 pounds. The main residence will also receive an additional £175,000 tax-free allowance if the estate passes to children or grandchildren.

U.S. Republicans discuss revising a temporary funding bill, with a duration of 14 to 60 days extended from 30 days

Rep. Garret Graves, an ally of U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, said Republicans were considering a temporary funding bill with a duration of 14 to 60 days. House Republicans are set to advance four appropriations bills next week, but with just seven days until government funding runs out, lawmakers need to pass a short-term measure to avoid a government shutdown.

This came after Republicans had introduced a 31-day continuing resolution that would cut domestic spending and include a border bill, which was partially opposed. Now, House Republicans are racing to draft a new continuing resolution to gain enough support this week. The revised stopgap bill under discussion would temporarily cut domestic spending by 27 percent, compared to the initial package that would have cut it by 8 percent; it includes an immigration and border security bill and creates a debt commission to study entitlement cuts.

Collins expects rates to stay higher and for longer than previous projections

Boston Fed President Susan Collins said in a speech on Sept. 22 that inflation has moderated, but progress has been uneven, and more time is needed to be sure price gains are on a steady downward path. Recent inflation data is encouraging, but it is "too early" to declare victory, core inflation excluding the cost of housing is still very high.

It is expected that interest rates may have to remain higher than previously forecast for a longer period of time, and further policy tightening cannot be ruled out.

There is uncertainty about the economic outlook and Fed officials need to be patient as they assess economic data to formulate their next move.

The road to a soft landing has been widened, and the Fed's policy "is in a favorable position" to achieve a decline in inflation at the same time to avoid recession.

Fed's Bowman favors raising rates again, probably more than one

Although good progress has been made in reducing inflation, but rising energy costs brings risks to achieving the inflation target, said Fed Governor Michelle Bowman in a speech. I see a continuing risk that energy prices could rise further and reverse the inflationary progress achieved in recent months. The battle against inflation is expected to proceed slowly, so further policy tightening may be needed.

If inflation is too high, it may just be appropriate for the FOMC to continue raising rates. After all, there is no preset model for monetary policy.

Fed's Daly says more patience is needed for policy path

We are closer to the destination, but it is too early to declare victory in the fight against inflation, said San Francisco Fed President Mary C. Daly in a speech on Sept. 22, adding that we need to slow down and collect information to determine whether it is necessary to take more tightening measures. Patience is a prudent strategy.

There is no sign that inflation expectations are rising and there is more confidence in a soft landing. The economy is proving that the risk of stagflation is less important, and we will see if higher energy prices will push up short-term inflation expectations.

[Focus of the Day]

UTC+8 15:00 ECB Governing Councilor Villeroy delivers a speech

UTC+8 21:00 European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde makes an introductory statement at a hearing of the European Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee

UTC+8 06:00 Next Day: Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari delivers a speech

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