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[Quick Facts]

1. U.S. job openings in May dropped by the most in three months.

2. ADP rose the most in a year, boosting rate hike expectations.

3. Nigeria plans to increase oil output by 20% in a bid to raise OPEC+ quota.

4. OPEC will soon publish the 2024 demand forecast for the first time in its monthly report, expected to be optimistic.

[News Details]

U.S. job openings in May dropped by the most in three months

The U.S. JOLTS job openings were 9.824 million in May, less than the expected 9.9 million, and the reading in April was revised upward to 10.320 million from 10.013 million. The number of quits in May unexpectedly increased by 250,000, the largest single-month increase since November 2021.

In February, the number of U.S. job openings fell below the 10 million mark for the first time since 2021, and the March data continued this brief downturn, both weaker than expected.

The ratio of open jobs to available workers is 1.6 to 1 in May, a sharp drop from 1.8 to 1 in April. The ratio hit a record level of more than 2 in March of last year. The ratio was 1.2 before the COVID-19 pandemic, obviously lower than levels recorded recently.

The JOLTS report shows an increase in the rate of quits, which typically indicates a tight labor market and the confidence of workers to leave their current jobs for better opportunities.

The report also shows that hiring increased in May, with layoffs and firings falling slightly during the month.

ADP rose the most in a year, boosting rate hike expectations

The ADP employment report shows that U.S. private sector employment rose by a seasonally adjusted 497,000 in June, more than double the market estimate of 225,000, and far exceeded the previous value of 278,000, marking the largest monthly increase since July 2022.

The U.S. services sector was the main driver of employment, adding 373,000 jobs, while the goods-producing sector added 124,000 jobs. Among them, the leisure and hospitality industry in the service sector added 232,000 employees, leading the entire private sector, followed by the construction industry, which added 97,000 employees. Trade, transportation, and utility industries added 90,000 employees.

The data triggered market bets that the Federal Reserve will need to tighten further. As a result, two-year U.S. bond yields soared to the highest level since 2007, and 10-year U.S. bond yields jumped above 4%, testing last year's highs again.

Nigeria plans to increase oil outputs by 20% in a bid to raise OPEC+ quota

Nigeria aims to raise oil production by more than 20% in the coming months as the country seeks a higher OPEC+ quota next year, the head of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) said. This West African country and several other OPEC members accepted lower production caps for 2024 in a deal reached last month. But the NNPC head said those levels will be reviewed later this year and Nigeria is gradually recovering lost supplies. In addition, he said a new dialogue will come and he is confident that higher quotas will be available when OPEC completes its assessment at the end of the year.

OPEC will soon publish the 2024 demand forecast for the first time in its monthly report, expected to be optimistic

OPEC is expected to publish its 2024 demand forecast for the first time in its monthly report on July 13. OPEC sources said OPEC is likely to remain optimistic about oil demand growth next year. The sources expected OPEC's demand growth forecast for next year to slow from this year's forecast of 2.35 million barrels per day, but remain above the average for the past 10 years and also above the forecast of the International Energy Agency (IEA) which expects demand growth to slow sharply to 860,000 barrels per day next year. Three of the OPEC sources said oil demand growth next year could be higher than 1 million barrels per day and lower than 2 million barrels per day. One source added that it could be between 1.5 million and 1.7 million barrels per day.

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