Chapter 1  8/13 下周走勢分析:美股指數、EUR/USD及Crude Oil

S&P Emini :

1.上週我們提到,市場不會直接V轉,區間震盪的機率較高

2.由於前期上漲持續了很長一段時間(4個月),而且略有高潮;市場可能需要橫盤下跌以擺脫超買狀況。回調(不再是強勢上漲趨勢)已經開始

3.就目前而言,市場直接大回調的可能性較低,但本周也不具備大倉位搶反轉的背景,若有上漲反彈(小幅測試7/27高點),至少會出現第二次小幅橫盤向下的機率較高

EUR/USD:

1.在上週我們提到,指數將在20日移動平均線附近震盪

2.過去兩週,歐元兌美元橫盤整理,跌破 20 日指數移動均線;多頭最近第三次上漲,完成了大楔形形態(突破4月份高點失敗)

3.目前,歐元兌美元可能處於「橫盤向下」回調階段;交易者將觀察空頭是否可以創造另一條下跌趨勢線來測試牛市趨勢線,或者回調是否會繼續橫盤交易(具有重疊的k棒、十字星和牛市k棒)

Crude Oil:

1.在上週我們提到,多頭會在任何回調處購買,4月份高點勢必會被測試

2.上漲處於緊張的牛市通道中。這意味著強勁的多頭;多頭希望強勁突破 38 週交易區間,並根據交易區間的高度進行等距上漲

3.不過,上漲持續時間較長,且略顯高潮。小幅回調隨時可能開始。交易者將觀察多頭是否能夠繼續創造後續買盤,或者市場會在當前水平(交易區間高點區域)附近停滯,並且多頭開始獲利了結

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