章节 36 XAUUSD: Oversold Possible in Short Term, Beware of Rebound(6.23)
Fundamentals
During the Asian session on Friday (June 23), thespot gold hovered at a near three-month low and is currently trading near $1,917 per ounce.The gold price fell sharply by nearly $20 overnight to a new low since March 16. Initial Jobless Claims in the U.S. last week were basically stable at a 20-month high with a small increase, which could be an early sign of labor market weakness amidst aggressive credit tightening by the Fed.After the release of the data, the decline in the gold price once narrowed. But Powell continued to put hawkish remarks, and the market is also suffering from the hawkish tendency to raise interest rates.The gold price continued its weak downside, falling as low as around 1910, then rebounding after it stabilized.
The key data for investors to watch today are as follows: UK Gfk Consumer Confidence for June, Japan National CPI Annual Rate for May, UK Retail Sales QoQ for May; France, Germany, US, UK, and Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI Preliminary Value for June.Big events to watch include St. Louis President James Bullard's speeches at the meeting of the Central Bank of Ireland, and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic's participation in a conversation with the financial and business community on related topics.
Technical Analysis
Daily chart: After this week's continuous decline, the price in the daily chart fell for several days in a row, with the MAs diverging side-by-side downward.The gold price also gradually broke the key support points, 1950, 1930, and 1918,and has formed a weak unilateral.For the lower range in the daily chart, focus on the important psychological barrier near the 1900 mark, as the price is also likely to fall below this point, but certainly not so smoothly;if the price falls below, further support will be in the 1890 range.In the current situation, that is, since the weak pattern has formed, it is suggested to do not to guess the bottom of the fall.Trading on the trend is highly significant, but there is also a great risk of chasing the bearish trend.Traders can go short but do not chase the bearish trend.The price in the short term, may have a rebound demand after a sustained decline in oversold, thus blindly chasing a bearish trend may be leading to a deeply locked-in.Patience is especially crucial to endure unrealized losses.It is recommended that one can wait for the price to rebound weakly before shorting, or after a sharp decline in the encounter with strong support for the best rebound.
Intradaytrading: Gold's overall performance was weak yesterday. The gold was weakly oscillating under 1940 during the day trading session; there was little volatility in the Asian and European sessions, andthe price had repeatedly fallen below 1930, to around 1920, and rebounded again to 1930.This situation is extremely bad for investors who are chasing the bearish trend,and bulls who entered the key support in 1918 are also worn to no patience.The unemployment data in the U.S. market is positive, and many investors may be forced to chase the highs; of course, this is not to blame, after all, the price is in the key support position, and encounter favorable data.The counter-trend trading mindset that also continues to go short is out of the ordinary.Today's trading advice is to go short after the price rallies, but the stop loss has to be narrowed. After the price rebound to the line of 1918-1920, one can go short with the stop loss set at 1925.If the price drops below to the range near 1900 today, one can take the opportunity to go long in the short term, with an enlarged stop loss as appropriate. Stop loss can be set at 1890, with the first target of the take-profit setting in 1918 and moving the stop loss to breakeven, and the second target set at 1930 above.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Long
Entry price:1902
Target price: 1925
Stop loss: 1890
Support:1900.000/1890.000
Resistance: 1918.000/1930.000