章节 33 WTI:Focus on the Inventory Data That Might Give the Market a Boost（6.22）
Fundamentals
On Thursday (June 22), during the Asian session, during the China holiday, international crude oil futures fluctuated within a very narrow range and currently traded around US$72.4. Yesterday, stimulated by the sharp drop inUSD and demand, the WTI oil price rose sharply from around 70.8 in the night session, reaching a peak of around 72.8, and finally closed at around 72.4, with an increase of over 2.1%, recovering the decline of the previous two days.The oil market gradually got rid of the macro gloom and returned to the fundamentals of supply and demand. At present, it is difficult to make a fuss about bear demand. Unless the recession is intensifying, the story is difficult to tell, and it can still be expected in the summer peak season.On the supply side, the game between the two sides is more serious. On the one hand, Iran is returning to export, Russia's implementation is not in place, and OPEC's internal differences are intensifying. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia began to cut production sharply in July, the output of U.S. oil is shrinking, and the strategic inventory is declining.However, as the time approaches the summer heat in July if the bears have no stories, the market will not rule out a sharp rise. At present, with the intensification of excess liquidity, the expectation of China's gradual relaxation of monetary policy, and the improvement of supply conditions, the depressed oil price may be expected to regain its upward trend.
Key data for investors to watch: U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending June 17, U.S. continuing jobless claims for the week ending June 10, U.S. current account for the first quarter, U.S. annualized home sales for May, Eurozone preliminary consumer confidence for June, and U.S. EIA inventory changes for the week ending June 16. Big events to watch include the Bank of England interest rate resolution, and speeches by Fed Governor Waller, Fed Chairman Powell, European Central Bank Vice President Guindos, and Cleveland Fed President Mester.
Technical Analysis
In the 1D timeframe:yesterday it was first fluctuating, and it quickly pulled up in the night session, testing resistance at 72.8, up as much as US$2, and closed with a white body in the 1D timeframe. It is currently in the upper pivot of the 67-74 fluctuationrange, near the upper edge of the range. After yesterday's closing with a white body, one white body covers two black bodies, and oil prices are also back above the SMA zone.The MACD indicator began to form a golden cross to set the trend.Technically bullish expectations have also been strengthened to some extent, and the pricecouldcontinue to be bullish in the short term, but caution is needed in actual trading. Attention should be paid to the EIA data of the U.S. tonight. If it is bullish forU.S. oil, the bulls may be able to make a comeback in one go, and there could be a unilateral rise in the future. It is only a matter of time before it recovers 74.The intraday support is at 72,71.5. After falling back to these two support levels, you can go long. When extended to the U.S. session, attention could be paid to the high of 74 in the 1D timeframe to see if it breaks. After it breaks 74, attention can be paid to the space for a big rise led by the bullish strengths.
Intraday trading recommendation: At present, the price is around 72.2. If you want to continue to be bullish on Thursday, it is recommended togo long with small positions during the day.If the price returns to the 71.5-72 range, you can take the opportunity to go long, with the stop loss set at 70.5, the first target of take profit at 74, and the remaining positions set for breakeven. Also, the focus should be given to 76 above.
Trading Direction
Trading direction: Long
Entry price: 71.800
Target price: 74.000
Stop loss: 70.300
Support: 71.500, 70.000
Resistance: 72.800, 74.000
