{x} | Trading.live

Fundamentals

During the Asian session on Friday (October 27), spot gold fluctuated in a narrow range and is currently trading around 1984. Yesterday, the market was the same old story as the day before, with gold prices rising and then falling back down in European and U.S. sessions. The price surged as high as 1994 in the Asian session. After the release of the better-than-expected U.S. data, however, strong hands once again sold the asset and sent it quickly back to the 1971 level. Following the wash trading, gold prices picked up slowly and came back to the 1983-1988 range where there was massive resistance. We also stressed yesterday that, don't chase the market but go short at key points as shorting has a higher win rate and a better profit/loss ratio. Aggressive investors who did short selling at previous highs could make $20. Compared to the day before, yesterday saw higher highs and higher lows, so the short-term outlook is bullish. But it's difficult for the price to break through the important resistance area at previous highs. This means we have less chance to trade on the last trading day of this week. We still advise investors to sell high with small positions.In the past few days, if you have made a good profit, you can have a rest today and there is no need to force to trade. You can do whatever you want, as giving up is gain!

Data: According to initial estimates released by the US Department of Commerce, real gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter grew 4.9% on an annualized basis, beating market expectations and the fastest pace in nearly two years. The preliminary annualized value of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index in the third quarter increased by 2.9% MoM and 3.4% YoY. The annualized core PCE preliminary price index, which excludes food and energy, rose 2.4% MoM, the lowest since the first quarter of 2021 and 3.9% YoY. The preliminary real personal consumption expenditure in the third quarter rose 4% MoM, the highest since the second quarter of 2021. US durable goods orders rose 4.7% MoM in September, higher than expected, which is also the fastest pace in more than three years.  

The data that investors need to pay attention to today is the US core PCE price index monthly rate for September. There is less important data today, and the market is mainly digestive.  

Technical Analysis

Trading at the daily timeframe, the trend of gold prices yesterday was very similar to Wednesday’s, except that the center of gravity lifted, and the highest point was around 1994. Due to important resistance, superimposed on the bearish data, gold prices quickly retraced to 1971 and then fluctuated in Europe and the US sessions. The market was still bullish and finally closed a small bull candle with long upper and lower shadows, which also achieved 2 consecutive bulls. At present, gold prices are still blocked in the 1983-1988 area and have not effectively broken through. The double top resistance in the range of 1997-2000 around the previous high could still not be underestimated. As all moving averages are running upward, the bullish trend in gold prices remains. However, larger headwinds seem to have emerged, one is in the MACD overbought zone, where the momentum of the bulls is constantly decreasing. With each upward step, the greater the resistance. As the slope of the current rise is too steep, it is easy to fall behind! Unless there is a large correction to ease the bulls' risk and smooth out the indicator, the trend may rise more healthily. In the short term, we still maintain the view that long positions can only be taken after a deep correction, and vice versa. Currently, the profit/loss ratio has been skewed towards the bears. Traders should continue to go short at key points this week, the harvest must be very satisfactory, and the key is execution! During the day, we should still adopt a Buddhist trading method, that is, trading when the opportunity comes, and self-cultivation if there is none.

Traders can mainly go short at high during the day. If the price rises to around 1997, you can still go short with small positions in the short term. The stop loss is 2002. The first target to take profit is 1977, where you can reduce your positions and move the stop loss to break even, and the second target is 1963. If the gold price rallies again at 2008, you can take a short position again. This will leave the stop loss at $5. The target to take profit and the first short position are unchanged.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Short

Entry Price: 1997

Target Price: 1977

Stop Loss: 2002

Support: 1977.000/1963.000

Resistance: 1997.000/2008.000