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Fundamentals

During the Asian session on Tuesday (August 15), spot gold fluctuated in a narrow range and is currently trading around 1907. Being encumbered by the rise of US Treasury yields, the dollar index surged overnight. Gold fell as low as $1902, which was the lowest level since July 7. With the US 10-year Treasury yield above 4%, interest-free gold is indeed less attractive to investors. The market is relatively stable today, with the bottom continuing to fluctuate. Currently, a positive sign is that the more solid the bottom oscillation, the more impressive the downside of the rebound.  

Data for investors to see today includes US Import Price Index MoM and Retail Sales MoM for July. In addition, major events to watch include speeches by relevant Fed officials and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Energy Ministers Meeting.  

Technical Analysis

Trading at the daily timeframe, gold prices rebounded to the MA5 at 1916 as scheduled yesterday, and the short trading will also successfully cash in on the take profit at 1905 again. Gold prices also dropped to the 1902 line as expected. If you can seize the opportunity of the price rebound, you can also make some profits. Gold reached a high of 1916.2 and a low of 1902.5 yesterday. At the same time, we highlighted yesterday that although gold is a bearish recently, there are still small opportunities to go short at the falling trend. Investors should pay attention to the fact that gold prices will build a bottom at any time and come out of the reversal market. Shorting is only a short-term trade, you can not be greedy. If you go long, you are able to judge according to the actual situation and key points and be ready to dig at any time. Back to the technical side of the daily structure, gold added another black body yesterday. Although the price has held the important psychological threshold of 1900, the continuous closing of the negative extreme decline still makes the market sentiment more negative, which also verifies the fact that the current gold bulls are not confident. This bearish sentiment has the potential to amplify the impact of the fundamental market events this week. Investors need to focus on the speech by Fed officials tonight and the minutes of Thursday night's meeting, which can trigger emotional changes at the current level of gold prices. At present, all moving averages are still running downwards, and the short-term weak oscillation pattern is difficult to change. Today's battle is at 1911 of the MA5, while the bigger contest is the 1922 at MA10. If prices can be stabilized at the MA10, the trend may change. In addition, the accumulated bullish momentum may strengthen the price trend. It can be seen from the graph that the "W" shape of the double bottom is prominent, which needs to be verified, but traders must not chase the short in the current cycle and point.

It is recommended that investors mainly take short positions on the high during the day. If the price pulls back to the 1903 line, investors can take a long position. Stop loss look at the 1897 line. The first target of taking profit is to look at 1911 around MA5, where you can move the stop loss to break even. The second target is to look at 1922. Even if 1900 loses within the day, you must not chase the short and should maintain a wait-and-see attitude. Investors need to be patient and wait for a short-term long opportunity after the price stabilizes below 1900.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 1904

Target Price: 1924

Stop Loss: 1899

Support: 1900.000/1895.000

Resistance: 1915.000/1922.000