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Fundamentals

On Wednesday (June 28) Asian session, spot gold prices oscillate in a narrow range, currently trading near 1915. The U.S. economic data released overnight is better than expected and the market expectations for the Fed to continue to raise interest rates are strengthened. Gold prices are still under pressure and the three major U.S. stock indexes closed up. In addition, the European Central Bank has issued hawkish remarks. The Russian "mutiny" basically ended and the previous risk aversion caused by this has subsided, which also weighed on gold prices. In the current situation, U.S. economic data is strong, and the Fed and most central banks around the world will probably still need to raise interest rates further. However, PMI data continues to decline and employment is weakening. These are constraints on the implementation of continued tightening policy, and we have no choice but to patiently wait for more data that may provide clues to future rate hikes. Gold prices are still following data fluctuations.

As for the data, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index rose more than expected to 109.7 in June, a new high of nearly a year and a half. U.S. durable goods orders rose 1.7 percent month-on-month in May and were expected to fall 1 percent, revised from a 1.1 percent gain to a 1.2 percent rise. New home sales in May hit an annual rate of 763,000 units, the highest since January last year, and rose 12.2 percent from the previous month, the biggest gain in more than a year, compared with market expectations for a 1.2 percent decline. The FHFA Home Price Index rose 0.7 percent month-on-month in April, compared with expectations of a 0.5% increase, and year-on-year growth was 3.1%.

Key data for investors to watch today: the preliminary monthly reading of U.S. wholesale inventories for May, the change in EIA crude oil inventories for the week ended June 23, and the change in EIA gasoline inventories for the week ended June 23. Big events to watch include the panel discussion at the European Parliament with the participators of Bank of England Governor Bailey, European Central Bank President Lagarde, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, and U.S. President Joe Biden speaking on economic plans.

Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, graphically, the death cross in MACD is expanding, but it is in the oversold area. Although the market is weak, it is still supported. Currently, gold prices are near the lower edge of the triangle's downward channel, and there may be demand for a rebound. From yesterday's trend, gold prices as expected fell back after surging higher, 1930-1910, a full $20 range, which also prompted the daily chart to close a black body. In the first half of the week, gold prices are also fluctuating in the 1910-1930 range. The second half of the week is more critical. 1910 is the low point of the previous, and if there is no further bearish, it is more difficult to break through; if it can break through, the bottom will have to test the support of 1900. If it can stabilize above 1910, the market is still not particularly weak, and there is still a chance to quickly recover the 1920 and 1930 mark. 1930 is the watershed of this week's strength, if it is broken unexpectedly, the top situation will be a little optimistic. You can see how the resistance of 1940-1950.

Intraday operation: Today's variables are whether the market will speculate bias hawk expectations in Powell's speech. In this case, gold prices may fall in advance, or will fall near 1900 unstably. If there is not as expected, it will once again rapidly rebound to the axis 1920 unstably. Today's trading recommendations are still to be patient, buying low is the major operation. If the price fell to 1900, you can go bottom with a small position after the stability. The stop loss is set at 1890, the take profit is set in the first target of 1920 and the second target of 1930 after setting the remaining.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Long

Entry price: 1900

Target price: 1920

Stop loss: 1890

Support: 1910.000, 1900.000

Resistance: 1920.000, 1930.000