فصل 1 Market Focus 17th April 2023
Market Focus: Investors Eagerly Await Highly Anticipated Economic Reports
What happened in the market last week?
- US CPI m/m fell from 0.4% to 0.1%, with y/y falling from 6.0% to 5.0%.
- FOMC meeting minutes raised concerns about the US banking crisis and considered a rate hike pause.
- USD weakened until the final day after Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment came in at 63.5.
- Bank of England considering further interest rate hikes to fight 10.4% inflation.
- BOE Governor downplayed banking crisis risk, leading investors to expect a 0.25% rate hike.
-Canada’s central bank left rates unchanged at 4.50% as inflation cooled.
- BoC ready to support the banking system if needed.
Last Week Market Pair Changes
The US dollar had a weak week due to recent economic data suggesting the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its rate-hike cycle. This has led to concerns about rising inflation and a decline in demand for the USD against other major currencies.
The USDX fell by 0.45%.
XAUUSD (Gold) rose by 0.71%.
Major US stock indexes rose, with DJ30 increasing by 1.21% and NAS100 decreasing by 0.22%.
EURUSD rose by 0.90%, while GBPUSD remained flat by losing 0.08%.
USOUSD (oil) rose as it logged weekly gains after the IEA predicted record demand, with USOUSD rising by 2.46%.
USDJPY rose by 1.25%.
What to focus on this week?
This week, market participants are eagerly awaiting some highly anticipated economic reports. The focus will be on key indicators such as CPI in Canada, the UK, and New Zealand, as well as Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI in the UK and the US. These much-awaited reports are crucial in helping traders and investors stay ahead of the curve and make informed decisions.
Here are the key events to watch out for:
New York Empire State Manufacturing Index | US (April 17)
The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index sank to -24.6 in March 2023 from February’s -5.8.
Analysts anticipate a reading of -15 in April.
Claimant Count Change | UK (April 18)
The number of people claiming for unemployment benefits in the UK fell by 11,200 in February 2023.
For March, analysts expect this trend to persist, with a projected decrease of 9,500.
Consumer Price Index | Canada (April 18)
CPI in Canada rose 0.4% in February 2023, easing from 0.5% in January.
For March, analysts expect the index to increase by 0.3%.
Consumer Price Index | UK (April 19)
UK inflation rose unexpectedly in February, with CPI up 10.4% annually from 10.1% in January. This was the first increase in four months.
For March, analysts expect a lower reading of 10.2%.
Consumer Price Index | New Zealand (April 20)
New Zealand’s CPI jumped 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2022 from the previous quarter.
For the first quarter of 2023, analysts forecast the index to increase by 1.6%.
Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI | Germany (April 21)
In March 2023, the German Flash Manufacturing PMI was revised slightly higher to 44.7, while the Flash Services PMI was revised slightly lower to 53.7.
For April, analysts expect the Flash Manufacturing PMI to be released at 45.5, while Flash Services PMI at 53.5.
Flash Manufacturing PMI | UK (April 21)
UK Flash Manufacturing PMI came in at 47.9 in March 2023, down from February’s seven-month high of 49.3.
Analysts expect a reading of 48.5. in April.
Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI | US (April 21)
The US Flash Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.2 in March 2023, up from 47.3 in February. Meanwhile, Services PMI was revised lower to 52.6.
For April 2023, analysts expect the US Flash Manufacturing PMI to be released at 48, while Flash Services PMI at 51.8.
