Since there are too many things in the Fed’s interest rate resolution that I didn’t mention before, I didn’t write it out separately, but I will make up for it later (emmm, I have a lot of pitfalls). Today, I will briefly talk about currency attributes and amplitude.
Direct currency pairs include US dollar, New Zealand dollar, Australian dollar, euro, British pound, gold, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, and Swiss franc, which can be divided into safe-haven currencies, commodity currencies and risk currencies. The specific classification and volatility are as follows:
Safe-haven currencies: USD, JPY (400-600 points against Japan, and so on), Swiss Franc (400-500 points)
Commodity currencies: New Zealand dollar (600-800 points), Australian dollar (800 points), Canadian dollar (600 points)
Risk currencies: Euro (800-1000 points), British pound (1200-1500 points)
Gold (2000-2500 points) is quite special. Gold has all three attributes, and I will explain them one by one.
The safe-haven nature of the U.S. dollar, because the U.S. economy has developed very well for so many years, has a high global status, and is a financial center. Even after the financial crisis in 2008, the Federal Reserve rescued its economy in the fastest time. Think about the U.S. How long has it been shrinking the balance sheet, and Europe is still expanding, which can be reflected (OMG, I will write the balance sheet later). And now that the global economy is in a downturn, the United States is thriving, so from the perspective of economic development, it is undoubtedly the number one in the world. Buying US dollars is equivalent to buying future appreciation space, so at least there is no real growth in peacetime. When the knife is used, the safe-haven property of the dollar can be reflected.
As for the hedging property of the yen, some people think it is because Japan’s national treasure is called the U.S. Army Stationed in Japan, uh... I can only say that I am not satisfied with the Korean won! The Plaza Agreement dragged down the Japanese economy enough, and the Guanzhong earthquake contributed to the flames. In order to stimulate domestic demand, Japan itself created a bubble in the stock market and property market. It was not until 2016 that it had to implement negative interest rates (well, I will make up TOT later in financial history). Negative interest rates mean that you save money in the bank, and if you don’t get the interest, you have to give the bank money, and anyway, it’s money to the bank, so it doesn’t make much difference between giving 10 yuan or 20 yuan, anyway, the yen has no room to depreciate, so The safe-haven property of the yen is reflected in the fact that it can only look flat or bullish in the future.
The risk-avoiding property of the Swiss franc is because during World War I and World War II, Switzerland was always a neutral country. Both the people and the opponents said that you fight, fight whatever you want, and I will provide you with supplies. Tell me what you need, anyway, don’t hit me. So at least in the war, Switzerland has no losses, the whole country is safe, so the money deposited in Swiss banks is also safe. Since the security of funds is provided, it is reasonable for Swiss banks to charge some interest, so the Swiss central bank also has negative interest rates, and because everyone believes that the Swiss central bank is safe, there are a lot of people saving money. Switzerland feels that There is too much money, and I don’t want people to save money, so I decided to cut interest rates. In the past, you had to give me 10 yuan to save money, but now you need to give me 20 yuan. However, because people think I gave you more money, you must treat me The service is more guaranteed, haha, so more and more people are saving money. So, the hedging property of the Swiss franc is reflected in the fact that the currency will not disappear during the war years. After all, if Britain is razed to the ground, then buying more pounds is just waste paper.
AUD and NZD are the currencies of Australia and New Zealand. It can be seen from the map that these two countries are geographically close and have similar climate conditions, so it is not surprising that they are both rich in livestock products such as beef, mutton, milk and wool. All of these countries are big exporters. Exports account for a large part of their GDP. Even half of the people in Australia are engaged in related jobs. Therefore, Australian dollars and New Zealand dollars are commodity currencies. The economies of their countries will be less affected by the global economic environment. Big, ps: Australia needs to add iron ore for export.
Canada, the back garden of the United States, is one of the three major oil-producing regions in the world (the other two are the Middle East and Russia, but the shale oil discovered by the United States itself last year should not be underestimated), crude oil is complicated to say the least, and it is not recommended Novice trading, after all, fluctuates greatly, and from the perspective of fundamental analysis, the analysis of crude oil is more difficult than currency pairs and gold. Since the price of crude oil will directly affect the price of the Canadian dollar, Canada is famous for its oil production, so it is also a commodity currency.
The risk attributes of the euro, as I mentioned in the previous article on European interest rate resolutions, the EU is a union of multiple countries, unlike the United States, which has a central leadership, so the EU itself is "fragile" and there are risks within itself ( For example, Brexit), so the euro is also a currency with risk attributes.
The risk attribute of the British pound is determined by the UK’s own situation. It is a big country with financial services. Finance is inherently risky. The unemployment rate in the UK is 8%, which is appropriate, and the rest are basically below 8%. Therefore, the risk attribute of the pound is determined by its own national conditions.
Finally, there is gold. Needless to say, gold’s risk-avoiding properties, everyone knows, “Antiques in prosperous times, gold in troubled times”, commodity properties are also easy to understand, and gold and silver jewelry stores can explain it. Risk properties are based on the premise of peaceful times. , The global economic development will also push up or pull down the price of gold to varying degrees, which is mainly due to the risk attribute, but the risk attribute of gold is difficult to reflect, after all, the restrictive conditions are strict.
Leave a small thought question for everyone. If you are interested, you can discuss it. Combined with the content of this article, let go of your thinking and don’t stick to one point~
1. North Korea and South Korea are fighting. What would you buy?
2. China and the United States are fighting, the kind of real swords and guns, what will you buy?
In two days, I will share my thoughts in the comments. There is no absolute correct answer. You can say whatever you think of~
Copyright reserved to the author
Last updated: 09/06/2023 08:49
Add
