Chapter 1 XAUUSD: Perhaps the Pullback Is Over, Try to Go Long Properly （6.1）
Fundamentals
During the Asian session on Thursday (June 1), spot gold fluctuated in a narrow range and is currently trading around 1964. which has finally found support at the low, holding the gains of the previous days. Last night, comments from Fed officials led to a sharp downward revision of expectations for a Fed rate hike in June, despite an unexpected increase in job openings and fewer layoffs in the US, as well as the US House of Representatives has passed the debt ceiling bill by vote, which dampened risk aversion. The U.S. dollar index rally was halted, with U.S. Treasury yields extending their decline, which has provided support to gold prices and has briefly hit a record high in a week around $1975 per ounce. Next, investors should keep an eye on the results of the debt ceiling bill sent to the Senate for a vote, which is expected to be completed by June 5 (next Monday).
With more data this session, investors can focus on the number of layoffs in US challenger companies in May, the change in ADP employment and the number of initial jobless claims for the week ended May 27. In addition, it is necessary to pay attention to the minutes of the ECB's May monetary policy meeting and the speech of Klaas Knot, the ECB Governing Council.
Overall: It has been suggested recently that the gold price is only a correction rather than a reversal, and investors can seize the opportunity of each sharp pullback to open positions in batches. The bullish direction of gold was also largely clear yesterday, the last trading day of May. As long as gold stays above 1950, it signals strength. The small non-farm ADP data will be released tonight, although Fed officials have cooled the June interest rate hike sharply and reduced the heat of the data. However, in the face of important data, gold prices will still fluctuate sharply. As the bulls lack of motivation last night, prices did not break through the important threshold of 1988, which left some suspense for today. In short, today is still worth looking forward to.
The trading reference range today is 1958-1988.
Technical Analysis
Trading at the daily timeframe, gold prices have bounced back after dropping around two-month lows to find support. The candlesticks record a similarly "engulfing" bullish signal. The daily chart closed positive yesterday and held firmly above the MA5 and MA10. Technically, the daily trend has the possibility of a continuous sun in the future, which is the stage inertia of the market, and the trend of least resistance. Further resistance is around the 38.2% retracement of the 2080-1932 decline around 1988, which is also the technical resistance to the rally of this wave of gold. A break of 1988 will again come out of the large upside, otherwise, it will extend the oscillate downward pattern and look for another support below.
It is recommended to focus on short-term longs instead of any short positions for the time being. Investors can go long lightly after the gold retraces to the 1958-1960 zone. Falls below 1955 of MA5 can be stopped manually or set directly at 1951. The first target is to look around 1966, try to stop loss firstly by reducing the position and changing the remaining position to capital protection, and then to take profit when hanging around 1988.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Long
Entry Price: 1958
Target Price: 1988
Stop Loss: 1932
Support: 1932.000/1918.000
Resistance: 1966.000/1988.000
