Short-term profit depends on winning rate, long-term profit depends on profit-loss ratio

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木森林

. I am a trader with seven years of experience. I have been groping and learning for the first two years. Keep improving your knowledge until recently.

  Because I have recently studied EA. Anyone who plays EA knows it. MT4 has a function called backtesting. To put it bluntly, backtesting is a review of historical data, and re-simulation results are carried out through EA strategies. Even if there are very good EAs. Of course, I currently have two in my hand. But for those who study manual orders from the beginning. This is clearly two paths.

  A teacher once told me that the market is unpredictable, there is no holy grail and magic method. I very much agree, but I can't understand, just agree. He told me that there is no absolute winning percentage, only an absolute profit-loss ratio. For example, your strategy win rate can reach 90%. 9 out of 10 orders are profitable. If the profit of 9 orders is 1 US dollar, then 9 orders are only 9 US dollars. If the loss is 15 US dollars. So overall it's still a loss. I understand this very well.

  Been replaying non-stop lately. Replaying historical data, I finally understood what the teacher said at that time. Indeed, we cannot predict where the market will start and where it will end.

  For a better understanding, we can think of it this way, you now have an order in your hand, only set a 20-point take-profit, and no stop-loss. After experiencing a high probability of taking profit, many people will still have quilt orders. When the account is really unable to hold on, we have no choice but to close the position. The profit list is very small, and the loss list is very large. If we think in reverse, set the stop loss to 20 points. Stop profit and run infinitely, can we turn losses into profits? Yes, the reason why I have persisted for so long is because I have seen people who can make stable profits, and most of them are long-term traders, and few are short-term profitable. Of course, I am talking about manual orders. Therefore, there is no absolute winning rate, only an absolute profit-loss ratio.

Next, I can talk about how I usually operate manually. First of all, we will draw support and resistance. If it is a horizontal line, I use two points to confirm, that is to say, the previous price hit the same level twice before I think this resistance is effective, then it is simple, place an order on the horizontal resistance, and place an empty order on the resistance , support pending long orders, and then set a stop loss and take profit, as long as the resistance is broken, we will stop the loss and exit the market, and the stop profit must be large. Usually I set a stop loss of 20 to 40 in forex. I will set the stop profit around 200-500 points. You don't care whether the price will hit the stop loss or take profit. You only need to wait until the stop loss and take profit are reached, and you must not move. This is what the teacher told me about the unpredictability of the market. The reason is very simple, but few people can do it. It is because you have not paid enough tuition for the market and have not received a deep enough lesson. Repeat practice is recommended. Attached are a few pictures of manual trading, with fixed stop loss and take profit, you can see how much I have set for stop loss and how much I have set for take profit


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  I just talked about the long-term and profit-loss ratio. This method is very suitable for manual orders. Next, let’s talk about the short-term method of looking at the winning rate.

  Short-term profits mainly rely on high frequency and high winning rate, which I can't do manually at present. I use ea. The advantage of ea is automatic trading. This type of EA belongs to the ultra-short-term EA. But it is different from the scalping EA of ordinary seconds. It lies in the holding time.


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dachshund

My delivery order is the ultra-short-term EA transaction. obviously. Slowly accumulating small orders can also increase account funds. Since ea only needs to be linked to the account and does not require manual operation, it is especially suitable for novices, but most people are looking for ea. spent a lot of money. I suffered a lot. The two eas I found were also painstaking, backtesting over and over again. Simulation test, to the real offer. It's really not as easy as it was when learning to trade.

This article is personal experience, and there are tens of thousands in the foreign exchange market. Everyone sees it differently. I may be the only one who agrees with my views, or some people may agree, and some people may not agree, because these people already have a way of agreeing in their hearts. so. Above, only represent personal opinion. I hope that everyone can achieve stable profits. In addition, I would like to advise some people that they feel that they are not suitable for trading and must withdraw from this stage as soon as possible.

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Last updated: 08/24/2023 16:35

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