When investing in gold, there are two non-agricultural data for reference, one is small non-agricultural data and the other is large non-agricultural data. These two data are related to the rise and fall of gold prices. Non-agricultural".
"Small non-agricultural" refers to ADP employment data, which is unofficial survey data , also referred to as ADP, which is the American automatic data processing company, and the ADP national employment report is sponsored by ADP, and the data comes from the survey of 500,000 private units. Therefore, the data has considerable accuracy and can predict the non-agricultural data at the beginning of each month.
The small non-agricultural data is released once a month, generally two days before the non-agricultural data (i.e. Wednesday). Specifically, during daylight saving time, it is generally at 20:15 on the first Wednesday night of each month (21:15 in winter time) It has a certain predictive effect on non-agricultural data, and is called "small non-agricultural data" by investors.
Small non-farm will have a certain impact on the price of gold, that is, the ADP employment data is better than expected, the price of gold will fall, and the ADP employment data will be worse than expected, and the price of gold will rise.
When the ADP data is higher than expected, it means that the employment situation in the United States is good, the income of the people is stable, and the economic environment is good, which is naturally good for the appreciation of the dollar, which is negative for gold and not for the United States.
On the contrary, if the ADP data is lower than expected, it means that the employment situation in the United States is poor and the economy is showing a downward trend, which is not conducive to the appreciation of the US dollar in the foreign exchange market, which is negative for the US dollar and good for gold.
That is to say, if the ADP employment data is better than expected, investors' optimistic expectations of small non-agricultural data will boost the dollar, and gold may be suppressed as a result; Pessimistic, suppressing the dollar index, gold prices will boost.
Because according to ADP data, if the employment situation is good, the purchasing power of the people will increase, and the economy will also improve. If the agricultural data is not optimistic and consumption is not stimulated, investors will be bearish on the US dollar and positive for gold prices.
The reason why small non-agricultural data can affect the price of gold is because small non-agricultural data will affect the country’s monetary policy. From this perspective, if the economic effect is sluggish and the dollar depreciates, the price of gold will rise; if the economic effect increases, the Fed will tend to increase interest rate, dollar appreciation, then the price of gold will fall.
(Say the important content three times ~ haha)
The small non-agricultural ADP data in the United States has a great impact on the metal market. There are two situations before the release of the small non-agricultural data and after the release of the small non-agricultural data, as shown in the figure below.
That is, before the release of the US non-agricultural data, the general market is less volatile, and you can choose to operate lightly. Investors can perform specific operations by looking at the 5-minute line. Relatively short positions can be long, and relative long positions can be short.
After the release of the non-agricultural data in the United States, the market has already shown a direction. To chase long or short, you need to make a decisive decision in an instant. If the gold price trend is short, you should go short, and if you are long, you should go long. You must follow the general direction of the gold price trend in time .
For the operation before the release of small non-agricultural data, it is necessary to use the current actual situation as a reference and observe the market trend changes. Just like the small non-agricultural data released during the Fed’s interest rate hike event, investors can mainly wait and see before the data. Those who want to operate can operate between small groups, and choose an opportunity to exit the market before the data is released.
Investors still need to use the current actual situation as a reference for operations after the release of non-agricultural data, and also carefully observe changes in market trends.
If the market is more controversial, investors can also give up immediate operations and choose to wait and see, or even wait for an opportunity to operate after a period of time after the impact of non-agricultural data on the market is over, so as to minimize their investment risks as much as possible.
At the same time, after the release of the small non-agricultural data, investors should stick to one direction and take a good stop loss. Appropriate enlarged stop loss is necessary. At the same time, the non-agricultural market will form false breakthroughs near key supports and resistances, which should be avoided.
Risk reminder: remember to take profit and stop loss when trading, and put risk management first.
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