The rise and fall of gold prices are not only related to the Fed's interest rate hike and non-agricultural data, but also to the number of initial jobless claims.
Initial Jobless Claims (Initial Jobless Claims) reflects the number of people in front of the state unemployment assistance agency to apply for unemployment insurance benefits. The number of people who are claiming for the first time or continuing to claim is also important.
Instead of calculating the total percentage of people who are working (or not working) by the measured total labor force, the report counts the number of people who are now waiting in line to receive unemployment insurance benefits.
The number of initial jobless claims is one of the most eye-catching economic indicators in the market, and it is also one of the indicators reflecting the state of the domestic labor market. Changes in the number of people will further affect the price of gold.
Initial jobless claims and gold price
As I mentioned above, the number of initial jobless claims is one of the most eye-catching economic indicators in the market, and it is also one of the indicators that reflect the state of its domestic labor market, and it will affect the price of gold. Before making the layout before and after gold, let's first understand the relationship between the number of initial jobless claims and gold.
The number of initial jobless claims is one of the indicators that reflect the state of its domestic labor market. The increase in the number of initial jobless claims reflects the increase in the number of people who have been laid off or the difficulty of finding new jobs. Because the United States is a completely consumption-oriented economy In society, consumption desire is the biggest driving force of the economy. If many Americans lose their jobs and apply for unemployment benefits every week, it will seriously inhibit consumer confidence.
The increase in the number of initial jobless claims is correlated with the unemployment rate. If the unemployment rate decreases, it means that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits decreases; and if the unemployment rate increases, it means that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits increases.
The relationship between the number of initial jobless claims and the price of gold is shown in the figure below.
As can be seen from the figure above, the number of initial jobless claims is closely related to the trend of gold prices.
Before and after the weekly announcement of unemployment benefits, investors should make a layout
As the so-called gold investment is like playing chess, those with high chess skills can see five, seven or even ten moves, while those with low chess skills can only see two or three moves. After the golden number, investors should strive to be the best chess players and make plans in advance.
Before the release of the data on the number of initial jobless claims, how should investors position gold, as shown in the figure below——
The second step is to make two-handed preparations near the key positions, judge and prepare for the position of intervention from the general trend of the market, and adopt the method of batch intervention and light storage first to reduce the risk.
The third step is to prepare for the impact of initial jobless claims on the gold market, and choose to wait and see or intervene after the shock of initial jobless claims to the market is over.
In addition, before the data is released, investors can also use various technical means such as the golden section, wave theory, monthly K-line, etc. to make a rough judgment on the medium and long-term trend of the gold price trend.
After the release of initial jobless claims data, how should investors plan?
Generally speaking, according to the relationship between the number of initial jobless claims and the price of gold, if the number of initial jobless claims is high, it means that the dollar is bad and gold is bullish, so investors can go long on gold.
If the number of initial jobless claims is low, it means that the dollar is bullish and gold is bearish. Therefore, investors can short gold, or do not operate, but wait and see.
However, investors should also grasp a variety of factors that affect gold prices in different periods of time, especially other factors that affect gold, and combine other data and events after the data is released, combined with the response of bulk commodities, etc. to comprehensively analyze the gold price trend.
Risk reminder: remember to take profit and stop loss when trading, and put risk management first.
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Last updated: 09/08/2023 08:39
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