Today I will talk about advice for novice friends. This is a very interesting and controversial topic. It's like a veteran who has been fighting for many years returns to his hometown and sees his son whom he hasn't seen for more than ten years. The first thing the son says when he meets him is: "Father, I want to learn from you and go to the battlefield to kill the enemy and make contributions." Father's first sentence The first reaction must be: "What nonsense are you talking about, is it not good to live, why are you in such a hurry to die?"
The market is like a drug, it can be addictive. Many people around you have investment accounts (stock, fund, futures and spot), when someone came to me for consultation, I always tried to persuade them to stop playing. But so far, no one can be persuaded by me. Since I can't persuade you to quit, it's meaningless for me to say more alarmist words. Just as a son is determined to be a soldier, a father has no choice but to teach him some survival skills. Therefore, the main tone of this article is based on the following assumption: Assuming that newcomers are determined to enter the market and cannot be stopped, can a few short suggestions be used to greatly increase the probability of survival?
1. There is no comfortable way to make money in the world
If you are a middle-aged and elderly person over 30 years old, you should be able to deeply understand the meaning of this sentence. Life has never been "easy". Many people think that the market is just a speculative place, and no matter whoever comes in, as long as the shit is shipped, they can make a fortune in it. But it's a pity that those who made a fortune by luck have never been able to bring their wealth out of the game, and finally lost all their capital and profits. Those who can really withdraw money from the withdrawal are often those who regard investment as a career. Yes, that's right, investment is also a profession, and it also requires very systematic training, and it takes a lot of time and energy to succeed.
Since it is a profession, it must conform to the basic laws of the industry in order to succeed. First, in any industry and profession, only by becoming the top 10% can you make a lot of money. This is the case for studying, working, starting a business, and investing. Second, if you want to become the top 10% in the industry, you need to spend at least many years of learning. Third, in the first few years of your study, don't expect to make money, it's already great without teaching fees, so if you really want to make money, then in the few years from now, you have to do a good job. Be prepared not to make money (some years you will make money and some years you may spit it out). But as a responsible senior with a conscience, it is still necessary for me to tell you these things.
2. The first book and the first teacher are very important, choose carefully
When a person arrives in an unfamiliar field, he immediately thinks of learning from his predecessors and looking for books to learn from. But I advise you to be very cautious when deciding to read the first book and choosing the first teacher. Why? Because a newcomer is like a blank sheet of paper, completely incapable of distinguishing the truth from the false, you will believe whatever the teacher says. If the first teacher's three views are not correct, then your value orientation will be deeply branded. It is very difficult to get rid of this brand, because it is an unconscious thing, and you don't even realize that you have been valued by the teacher. influence of orientation. In the same way, novices often accept all the suggestions in the first book, so they must choose carefully.
A good enlightenment book does not lie in its academic level, but in whether its value orientation is conducive to your further study in the future, just like the "San Zi Jing" in ancient China. Last year, I wrote a special book list "Will the warehouse explode? You may not have read these books carefully! "You should still be able to find it on the Internet. Of course, don't expect to learn how to make money after reading the book, that's still far from it. The function of the book is to imprint his three views on your mind. In the future, when you encounter a liar, your body will instinctively reject it. This will save you a few years of detours. There are only a few decades in your life. If you go astray and turn back, five years of time will be gone.
The first teacher refers to the teacher you can get in touch with and can interact with him, not the investment masters such as Buffett. He has never answered any of your questions, and he cannot point out the mistakes in your practice. In the final analysis, investment is a labor class, not a theoretical class. If no one points out the detailed mistakes in your operation, and you only rely on yourself to stumble through the wall, it will take at least five years to find out some ways. Many people think that if they admire Buffett and believe in value investing, they are already value investors. This kind of thinking is too naive. If worshiping Buffett can make money, it is estimated that Buffett's portrait will be placed on the altar by every household and worshiped every day. What comes from the book is always superficial, and I know that this matter must be practiced. Pulling away, back to the topic: how to choose a good teacher?
We all know that there are a lot of scammers on the Internet, pretending to be gods and ghosts, and pretending to be more like masters than masters. In case your first teacher is such an unscrupulous liar, it will not only waste your money, but also your youth.
First, anyone who claims to be a master is not a master.
Second, anyone who posts a delivery order, or brags about how many points he has seized, is trying to seduce the most impetuous and greedy side of the reader. Greed and impatience are the natural enemies of investment, unless you need a "devil coach" "To spur you forward, otherwise it is best not to worship him as a teacher.
Third, anyone who says that he has learned without a teacher, has been self-taught for 5 years, and has never lost money. They are all talented geniuses. You don't have this kind of talent, so it's useless for you to learn from him, you can't do it.
Fourth, anyone who changes his or her viewpoint day and night is nothing but foolishness. A real master is a person with a firm stance, and will not immediately make more empty positions just because the market has fallen today.
Fifth, the investment period is less than 5 years. 5 years is the minimum standard. The market can only complete a round of bull-bear cycle switching every few years. People who claim that they can use the market as a cash machine before a round of bull-bear cycles are either too small, or lie.
As for the criteria for a good teacher, I can't say, but at least there should be one: When a student says he wants to learn trading, I will persuade you to go home and grow sweet potatoes. The first teacher, what you have to learn is his spirit, his values, methods and skills are second. There should not be only one teacher in life, but there is only one spiritual teacher. The lucky thing for Buffett is that he met Graham and Fisher in the early stage of investment and regarded them as his spiritual mentors. Of course, his luckiest place is to be born in the United States.
3. Don’t try to explain market trends
Novices are always full of curiosity, just like a child who always has "one hundred thousand whys" in their minds. They always think that everything has a cause and effect, and everything can always find out the reason. For example, I always ask "Why did it fall today?" "Why is the market so big recently? Who is buying?"
But in fact, there are many things in this world that have no answers. If you are always entangled in cause and effect, your energy will be dragged down by some insignificant things, and you will not be able to focus on the most critical and core issues.
For example, if the variety of holdings fell today, the novice's brain circuit will think like this: Why did it fall today? Is the Fed affected? Why did it fall again? Who is shorting? mechanism? Sell? Why are they smashing the plate? Don't they want to go up? Is there something wrong with Sino-US trade? What if the negotiation fails? Is it someone who received the wind and ran ahead of time? Shall I run first? If the dollar falls again, will the Fed rescue the market? Doesn't it mean that it is a bull market now? Are those big Vs reliable? What if they are wrong? Shall I run first? But what if I run away and the price rises again? But what if I don't go and fall back? . . . .
The above question, even if you want to break your head, you can't find evidence to confirm it. In the end, you think about it for a long time, but you get nothing but want to die a few brain cells.
What is the correct brain circuit? First, what was the reason for my order in the first place? Does this reason still exist under the current situation? Second, if the reason for holding the position no longer exists, I will sell. If the rationale holds, I don't care about today's drop. It's as simple as that, why is the inner drama so rich, you are not the director. Of course, the biggest tragedy of a retail investor is that he doesn't know the reason for holding a position in the first place. He just bought a certain ticket because a certain big v boasted about it on Weibo. So he doesn't know when he can get it and when he can't. .
4. Do not hold more than 3 varieties
Many newcomers misunderstand the "diversified investment" theory, and always think that holding 10 varieties can disperse the downside risk. Diversification has several key assumptions:
1. Assume that the varieties held are all irrelevant or negatively correlated. However, many commodities have a relationship between falling and rising, so using a bunch of design combinations cannot disperse the risk of falling. On the contrary, it can disperse your yield and lower your yield.
2. It is assumed that investors have enough energy to pay attention to multiple portfolio varieties. But this is difficult in practice. On the contrary, if you look at all kinds of information of a variety every day and pay attention to it every day, you are more likely to catch the big market when it comes. Focus on investing. The rate of return is definitely much higher than if you cast a wide net.
Some people may refute me with the example of fund companies and institutions, because there are generally more than 10 institutions. First, the amount of institutional funds is too large, and one or two varieties cannot accommodate it, so a few more have to be selected. Second, the institution has dozens of professional researchers working overtime every day to help him, but ordinary investors are just fighting alone. Third, 70% of the institutions are underperforming, they are just messing around, and the performance is there, and there is no room for quibble.
5. Not losing the opportunity to make money VS not losing the principal, you can’t have both
According to risk appetite, investors can be roughly divided into two categories: unwilling to lose opportunities VS unwilling to lose principal. The two ways of thinking are completely opposite.
A person who is unwilling to lose an opportunity, as long as he sees an opportunity in the market, he will participate. What he is most afraid of is not losing money, but getting lost. So when the market is good, if he has short positions, he will be very anxious. He is afraid that this is a big bull market, and he will have no chance if he doesn't get in the car. So he will chase after him. This kind of person hates the people around him making money the most, and he becomes envious and anxious, and then you can't persuade him no matter how much you persuade him, he insists on jumping into the fire pit. This kind of person usually does not lose opportunities, but he is also doomed to step on countless traps. This is the price.
So when he makes money, he is fierce. Doubling in a month is not a dream, but when he loses money, he can lose 50% in a month. In the end, in the long run, the profit and loss, the account has been on a roller coaster, always staying at the level of hundreds of thousands of yuan, unable to break through.
People who are unwilling to lose their principal, when they invest, the first thing they think of is: What if I make a mistake? Therefore, they only participate in investment opportunities with high certainty and give up opportunities with low certainty. So they can usually avoid various traps, at the cost of a large number of missed opportunities. This requires a very high psychological quality to do it. Just imagine, others take all the way to receive the goods, but you only earn 10% and wait for the empty position. How do you play, how can you hold your breath? In the long run, this kind of person's account is stable and profitable every year, but the annual profit margin is not very high. The advantage lies in accumulating over a long period of time. When the funds roll to a certain level, a qualitative leap will occur. Compound interest rolling is the best in the world. The scariest way to increase wealth.
But the biggest tragedy of a retail investor is that he neither wants to lose the opportunity nor the principal. So, in the end, he lost both the opportunity and the principal.
6. Don't look at how others succeed, but look more at how they die
People have the habit of reading biographies of famous people, hoping to learn to imitate his success. But in fact, success is just a combination of various accidental factors, and there is no reproducible path to success in the world (the reason is that too many people replicate it, causing the strategy to fail). Under the halo effect of these celebrities, his abilities will be infinitely magnified, but on the contrary, his flaws are hesitant to speak. You only know his bright side, not his dark side, so when you take up his sword, you don't know what negative cost will be there, and this price is often too heavy for you to bear. What really makes you grow up quickly is throwing you into a pile of dead people and letting you witness various ways of dying. You will soon learn how to avoid making various mistakes. As long as you don’t make mistakes, you can live longer , Only those who are alive can hope to become generals.
The so-called masters and experts are people who have made all the mistakes in a very small field.
In the market, there are three ways to witness various death methods. The first is to use your own money to lose money. If you lose a lot, you will naturally learn to be smart. Of course, this is the most efficient and cost-effective way. way.
The second way is to listen to and read more about the experience and knowledge of those who have lost their fortunes. Of course, it is best to write articles about the author's own psychological monologue. When you have time, go to the forum. This is a heartfelt psychological monologue to bid farewell to netizens. This kind of article is the most worth reading. The following will resonate with many netizens. Many netizens will share their "history of blood and tears". If you read too much, you will understand that there is no way to make money comfortably in the world.
The third is to check the simulation contest to see the list. Instead of looking at the top 10 delivery orders, check the bottom 10 delivery orders. How do these people who lose money operate, and you should avoid taking the same actions as him. The more you watch, the more commonalities you can come up with. One of the most important commonalities I can tell you is - frequent transactions. The second is to engage in full positions in the "unilateral" trend.
That's all I've said today, and if I say too much, novices can't understand it. At the request of readers, the following articles will be updated faster, so as to deliver investment trends as soon as possible, and answer readers' questions at the same time. You can ask questions by private message or leave a message under the article. The new revision has increased the workload for me, but I hope that with my more efforts, readers can get greater benefits. The article has been free from beginning to end. My goal is very simple and clear - to let all readers Knowledge and intuitive benefits can be gained through my articles. Finally, thank you readers for your support, and I will also repay your expectations for me.
Author: Kim Seung-ho
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