What enlightenment can reviewing history give us?

Let me talk about the stock market first, is it Moutai, or the former Chinese ship? I suggest that you open your favorite stock, zoom out the picture, and look at its rise from its listing to today. I believe that the long-term investment thinking you get after reading it is more useful than reading the text I wrote, even far Beyond the value of reading basic books, many people will suspect that some big blue chips have different listing times, and the timing is unfair. You don’t know if there will be a check that is better than Moutai in the future. This is what we need to look at in history. Value, let's see how the ROE (blue-chip stocks) we cared about a long time ago is now? For long-term investment, the main business of the buyer must be clear and the performance is excellent. Back then, Xingye Real Estate’s main business was very good, not to mention the performance, but what about now? The times are changing, and we must keep up with the pace of the times. If we look at the market from this perspective, then we are thinking about what investment is? What is speculation? This question has some depth. I won't write the answer yet, I will reveal it slowly in future texts.

Investment is to invest in value, and speculation is to invest in opportunities. More of us think that value is more reliable than opportunity. There are many opportunities, but who can explain the value? Is it worth seeing only when it really happens? The value is really reflected, then the rest is to enter the stage. I also partly agree with this kind of thinking. If the price is the embodiment of the growth of the enterprise, then the performance of the enterprise will definitely affect the stock price, but the fluctuation of the stock price will also affect the operation of the enterprise in turn. Many people ignore this point. Many people think that value is high and dominant, and market fluctuations just follow the value. But when you have experienced market madness, you will understand that market fluctuations are quite Violence, completely ignoring the value when it plummets and soars, like a wild horse that has run wild, once it loses control, the violent force can completely overturn all the manifestations of value, (now the price of our stock market is worthy of the second place in the world? ?) The reason why many value investors are overwhelmed by the market is because they always imagine themselves standing at the commanding heights of value, thinking that the market will always stage value leading everything all the time. They forget to respect the market and forget the market price It can overturn the value within a certain period of time. Writing this reminds me of XX, an influential private equity fund manager in our country during the stock market crash. Once brilliant, he was defeated by obsession, and finally ended his own life. . This incident made me ponder for a long time, and I have a deeper understanding of the market, so I have these thoughts in the above text. There is also a book, Soros's Financial Alchemy, which describes the effectiveness of the market. . These experiences are all bloody, and we must always remember them.

The market is not an equilibrium state where the value is stable and the price is stable. It is often a cyclical state where price and value interact with each other in a dynamic situation. The value also changes but changes slowly. The price moves away from the value and eventually the bubble bursts and returns to the value. The sea is rough, and the fish in the sea are always moving. So a lot of safe opportunities, he is very dependent on timing, many look at dangerous timing, and eventually it will become a wonderful buy at the lowest point and short at the highest point.

Serializing...to be continued...