I bet that 80% of traders can judge the trend and follow it. So how does the market eliminate most trend-following traders in order to achieve its own survival? The answer is this.
1. First of all, we need to understand what potential is. Potential is a simple induction of graphics to judge whether the graphics are up or down. More than 80% of traders can judge the direction of graphics with the help of textbooks. The problem is that just judging the direction of the graphics is not enough.
2. We can do spatial analysis for any graphics, and they all have three elements: direction, amplitude, and center point. To do a transaction, we need to have a stop loss, and this stop loss must be outside the volatility.
3. The premise now is that the trader has judged the right trend and the right direction. For profit-loss ratio traders, if your entry point is above the center point of the graph, then your profit-loss ratio is 1:1. In the long run, your stop profit will exceed your stop loss. If your entry point is far beyond the center point, then your profit-loss ratio is greater than 1. In the long run, you are more likely to win, but the chances of entry are much less. If your entry point is below the center point, then your profit-loss ratio is less than 1, and you will lose in the long run, even if you follow the trend. That is to say, for the profit-loss ratio players, even if you judge against the trend, even if you trade with the trend. If your entry point is below the center point, you will die if you trade with the trend.
The key to winning is whether you can judge the right figure, enter the market on the edge of the upper half of the figure, and enter the market above the center point. Otherwise, even if you trade with the trend, you will die.
4. Let's look at another transaction grid transaction. The characteristic of grid trading is small stop profit and big stop loss. The characteristic of homeopathic grid trading is to stop profit in the lower area, stop loss in the upper area, and stop loss outside the fluctuation range. In this way, the probability of stop profit is far higher than the probability of stop loss. Even an online trader must be able to judge the situation. Otherwise, the winning rate of his stop win is not enough to offset the stop loss. After judging the situation correctly, if his entry cannot be above the central point, in the long run, his total stop profit amount will still not be able to offset the stop loss amount.
In other words, for a grid trader, even if he follows the trend, but cannot enter the market above the central point, he will still die.
5. If you can judge the situation and enter the field above the center point, will you definitely win? the answer is negative. If your stop loss is too small to be outside the volatility of the graph, or if the volatility of the graph you choose to enter often exceeds your stop loss, you will still lose. Therefore, the prerequisite for winning is that you must have sufficient graphic volatility judgment ability and sufficient stop loss. If the stop loss is too small, you can only lose forever. Many people are wrong on this fundamental path, so there is no possibility of winning, no matter how hard he tries. Stop loss represents your ability to magnify profits in the future, and the market as a whole has control over the size of stop loss. Excessive leverage can only correspond to a very small stop loss, and the result of a very small stop loss is bound to be a loss. Therefore, if you have a large leverage, you will lose, and if you have a small stop loss, you will lose. It's not a problem of trading ability, but it's fundamentally wrong, like trying to break the conservation of energy, there is no chance at all. Most traders have no way to understand that large leverage, small stop loss and stable profit can destroy the market. Choosing large leverage or small stop loss means trying to break the law of conservation.
In other words, those with small stop losses or large leverage who trade with the trend will die.
6. Because of the point difference, if the volatility of the trading graph is too small, then the center point is too close to the edge point, so your probability of being higher than the center point is too low. Therefore, there is no way to win over-frequency trading and extremely short-term trading. Unless you can find a BUG in the market, use certainty and probability to win.
In other words, over- frequency trading and extremely short-term trading, because of the point difference, even if they follow the trend, they will die.
7. What is graphics? Graphics are the combined result of the trading behavior of market participants. Every graph has its formation principle. Every graph may mutate after a certain period of time. The standard form of each figure has its probability of appearing. Whether he can survive in the market for a long time depends on whether he has the ability to understand existing graphics and the ability to understand new graphics. Like the arbitrage method, a trader may learn an arbitrage method to make a profit, but after a long time, if the arbitrage method is not changed or corrected, then the arbitrage method will become invalid and cannot make a profit. If a graphics trader cannot adapt to the changes in graphics and understand the new graphics, he will still die in the future. Arbitrage trading has a certain timeliness, and chart trading also has a certain timeliness. This time limit is relatively long, generally more than one year. The trading competition is the ability to judge the graph, and judging the volatility and edge of the graph is the prediction of the graph. If a person's ability to generalize and deduce graphics is too low, even if he wins with the help of textbooks or others, he will still join the ranks of losers after one or two years, or a few years later.
In other words, even if you are a trend-following trader, if you cannot understand the new graphics that will appear in the future, you will still die in the hands of the new graphics in the future.
The above several ways to die are a summary of the failure of trading with the trend. Going against the trend will fail, but most of the trend will also fail. My point is very simple, try to get out of the market, God is fair, in order to gain in this market, you need to have the ability and hard work far beyond your imagination, not that you will win if you take advantage of the trend, you just try your luck Learn how to win and you will keep winning.
The graph changes in the foreign exchange market far exceed that of futures and stocks, while the graph changes in stocks are much simpler, after all, there are very few people involved. If you really don't want to leave, just go for stocks. If you really don’t want to leave, you can do long-term trading, you can use a leverage of less than 3 times, and you can stop losses.
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