Fundamental Analysis (8) - the idea of ​​making orders with complete fundamentals

After thinking about it, I have already written a few articles, so I should tell you about my specific ideas for making orders, and it is also convenient to briefly sort out what I said before.

Fundamentals are not a simple direction, but the future direction of the country combined with the past and present policies, whether it is getting better, getting worse, or hovering at the bottom, what changes will be made under the existing policies, and what will happen in the future Encountered policies, what will retail investors think, how institutions (that is, market makers, the investment banks I mentioned before) will induce, what should I do as myself, what should I do with currencies that are optimistic about poor performance, and so on.

Taking Europe and the United States as an example, I first need to pay attention to the data of Europe and the United States. The specific data views have been mentioned before. What I want to say here is that the data is not important or unimportant, but only the difference in the duration of the impact. Generally speaking, people think that GDP is the most important thing. It is undeniable that GDP is indeed important, but GDP is announced every three months. If the announcement shows that the economy is going bad, and then enters the market to short, it will have missed it. The market is at this time. Came out in three months. CPI and PPI constitute inflation. Initial applications will be related to the unemployment rate. Housing data will affect investment and indirectly affect GDP. I will read these data. And why does one data affect another data, to what extent, forward or reverse, I will not expand here. If you want to know more, please go to "Macroeconomics" to find the answer. Novices who don't want to read books can read me The previous data article is also available.

Then, consider the current overall situation in Europe or the United States, think about the whole, not just a single point. For example, when I think of the United States, I think of the Sino-US trade war handshake and good for the whole world. Trump’s impeachment is good for the dollar. The three interest rate cuts this year are not because of the poor economy but to release liquidity to the market. Low will have less and less impact on the United States. The overall economy of the United States is not bad now (whether a specific thing will affect the country’s economy, how to affect it, and how long it will affect it requires knowledge and experience accumulation of financial history. I will discuss financial history I will talk about it later). Then recall the recent interest rate decision, monetary policy and other speeches, figure out what the official speeches mean, and then predict the likely direction of the future economic situation, and what policies the official will use to respond. Then combined with the data, in the current global environment, the GDP is not bad, the unemployment rate has been good, the inflation is still worse but improving, and the problems in the manufacturing industry are also slowly being resolved. Overall, it is good for the dollar. Europe is the same, bearish.

Then look at the market, Europe and the United States fluctuate and go down on the sky map, most retail investors will not operate according to the sky map, and most of them are fast-in and fast-out intraday orders. Institutions do not have the strength to oppose the direction of the fundamentals unless several major institutions take action at the same time. Then if there is no cooperation, the general direction will be bearish in the future, but if both retail investors and institutions are short, then no one can make money, and the order cannot be closed, so institutions need to use their own funds to induce a wave. For retail investors, most of them can only understand technical aspects, W bottom, head shoulder bottom, even triple bottom, double needle bottom and other bottom forms, then institutions can make these forms. Familiar form, aggressive current price to go long, conservative callback to go long. Behind the platform is the institution. All retail orders are clear in the background of the institution. The more complete the form, the more retail investors will enter the market. As long as the number of pending orders below is sufficient, a wave of settlement will follow, retail investors will wipe out their losses and liquidate their positions, and the institution will gain a lot of money. .

What I have to do is not to compete with the institution, but to follow the dealer. If I enter the market when the institution is pulling up, I will probably catch up to the highest point, so I will choose to follow the institution when the last wave of settlement is settled. So which point to choose, you need to look at the relationship between volume and price, see what new data has been released recently or what speeches can be made to cooperate, and then consider how much the institution will pull back, whether it is a support level, or two, or three, If the pull is too much, will other organizations come in and push the boat along.

Next, consider whether I am making one order, three orders, or five orders at this time. Most of them are three orders at the same time, and there are very few five orders. Then the total position is given according to my account. No matter how many orders are present, the total position must not exceed the position ratio. . The position of gold is smaller, the risk attribute is smaller, the commodity attribute and hedging attribute are more, or some currency pairs have a high probability of reversal, and more positions can also be placed. Then according to the volatility of their respective attributes, different stop losses are given to clarify the losses they can bear.

Finally, it is time to enter the market and place an order. Large accounts can directly place orders. Small accounts can judge when the market will reach my ideal entry point based on the volatility. Whether the energy column and the k-line trend are consistent with my prediction , and then determine the precise point before entering the market. After entering the market, set a stop loss and turn off the market. There is no need to keep an eye on the market.

The idea is only 1,500 words, but it requires a lot of professional knowledge and experience accumulation. Fundamental analysis is more to figure out what the global situation is like, and how institutional retail investors play games, rather than watching the market.

At the same time, for me, learning fundamentals is to not keep an eye on the market. I also came from the stage of studying K-line and macd. I really can’t stand it at two or three o’clock in the middle of the night. Anyway, I also reflected the final result in the previous post.

In the next article, I will continue to fill in the hole orz. If someone asks me to talk about the three major bubbles, then arrange it!